经济学家2014考研.doc

Weight watchers抽烟=减肥Bad news for advocates of higher cigarette taxes对支持提高烟草税的人来说，坏消息来了Apr 13th 2013 |From the print edition“IF IT were totally up to me, I would raise the cigarette tax so high the revenues from it would go to zero,” thundered Michael Bloomberg back in 2002. New York citys combative mayor has since raised cigarette taxes several times. The effect has been limited, so he wants to try something new. He recently proposed to outlaw discounting cigarettes and displaying them openly in stores.“如果让我全权决策的话，我会大幅度提高烟草税，直到让烟草业利润降为零。”2002年，纽约市市长Michael Bloomberg这番话掷地有声。在那之后，这位有干劲的市长几次提高了烟草税。然而收效并不十分显著，所以他希望尝试一些新举措。最近，市长提议将打折销售香烟和在商店公开陈列香烟视为违法。Whether these measures will be approvedand helpremains to be seen. But Mr Bloomberg may well be right to push for more bans. A new paper by Abel Brodeur of the Paris School of Economics, based on extensive surveys in America, suggests that bans on smoking are not just effective but actually make smokers happier. By not allowing them to light up in restaurants and bars (as New York already does), governments give weaker-willed individuals an excuse to do what they otherwise cannot: stop smoking. As an additional benefit, bans also seem to make spouses of smokers happier.这些条例是否会被通过、是否有效，还有待观察。但布隆伯格市长很可能还会提出更多相关禁令。巴黎经济学院的Abel Brodeur发表了一篇论文，通过在美国大量的调查发现，禁烟条例不仅仅是有效的，事实上还让烟民感到更快乐了。通过禁止人们在餐厅和酒吧抽烟（纽约已经实施这一条例），政府让意志力不坚定的人有了“借口”去戒烟而这原本是他们自己所办不到的。禁烟的另一个好处是，吸烟的夫妻似乎因此更幸福了。A second paper provides ammunition to those sceptical of higher cigarette taxes as a way of discouraging smoking. John Cawley of Cornell University and Stephanie von Hinke Kessler Scholder of York University looked at how sensitive young American smokers are to higher cigarette prices. Not very, it turns out. That is because a big share46% of teenage girls and 30% of teenage boysdo not smoke for pleasure, but to stay thin or lose weight.有的人对提高烟草税来降低吸烟率这一举措持怀疑态度，而另一份报告则给这些人提供了有力依据。康奈尔大学的John Cawley和约克大学的Stephanie von Hinke Kessler Scholder就美国年轻吸烟者对提高烟草税的敏感度作了调查。事实证明，这些年轻烟民对此并不敏感。因为大部分吸烟的青少年（46%的女生和30%的男生）并不是为了享受而吸烟，而是为了保持苗条或者减肥。That may not be healthy, but it is rational: cigarettes appear to suppress the appetite and increase the metabolic rate. At any rate a desire to lose weight makes young smokers much less sensitive to price changes: other ways of shedding pounds, such as eating less or exercising more, are less appealing. What is more, few teenagers spend a lot of money on cigarettes. A 2003 study by researchers from the University of Minnesota found thatonly 16% of teenage smokers had bought their last fags themselves.这个方法可能并不健康，但却有其科学依据。香烟会抑制胃口，加速新陈代谢。不管怎样，减肥的意愿会降低吸烟的年轻人对香烟价格变动的敏感度。和抽烟相比，其他像节食或者加强锻炼这样的减肥方法对他们来说没什么吸引力。此外，极少有青少年会花大笔钱在购买香烟上。2003年，明尼苏达大学的一项研究发现，年轻烟民最近所吸的烟是自己花钱买的可能性只有16%。Bans may not do much to stop already illicit smoking by young people. Luckily, the study also opens up a new line of attack: convincing smokers that they are in fact not overweight. Judged by their body-mass index, a way of measuring whether people are under- or overweight, many girls (but not boys) who smoked to get thinner were of perfectly normal weight.青少年吸烟是违法行为，想要通过禁烟条例来制止这一行为或许没有太大威慑力。但幸运的是，研究找到了一个劝说青少年戒烟的新方法：让他们相信其实他们并没有超重。通过体重系数（一种判断人们体重是偏轻还是偏重的方法）可以看出，很多想要通过吸烟来减肥的女生体重完全是正常的(男生则不是这样）。Protecting the weakest保护最弱势群体The recession may hurt Americas vulnerable children经济危机可能会危害美国弱小的儿童Feb 25th 2010 | NEW YORK | From The Economist print editionOVER the past few years, a growing number of Americas parentless children have found homes. In 2008 there were 463,000 children in foster care, a system where the government places orphans and children with parents who are abusive or unable to take care of them in the care of guardians. That is 11% down since 2002, and great news. But experts worry the trend might now go into reverse.过去几年里，美国越来越多的没有父母的儿童找到了家。政府通过寄养体系为孤儿以及受父母虐待或没有得到应有照顾的儿童提供监护人，2008年，46万3千名儿童得到妥善安置。该数字比2002年减少了11%，这是个好消息。但是专家们担心这一趋势如今可能会逆转。Some welfare advocates fear that the bad economy may cause parents with frayed nerves to abuse and neglect their children, and even cause some to abandon them. Already, several hospitals across the country have reported an increase in the frequency and severity of injuries from child abuse. 一些福利倡导者担心，经济疲软可能引起精神崩溃的父母忽视、虐待，甚至抛弃他们的孩子。美国几家医院已经报告，受虐儿童入院越来越频繁，伤势也有所加重。The most recent national data on child welfare available dates from September 2008, before the recession was in full throttle; data from 2009 wont be reported until later this year. But there is some question about whether the data, when reported, will even be accurate. Many states and counties, in an attempt to cope with their fiscal straits, are considering cutting down on child-welfare services, such as benefits for foster parents and the number of social workers they employ. The average workload of caseworkers had already increased by 7% between 2006 and 2007, says Mary Hansen, of American University in Washington, DC. With more budget cuts, there will be fewer caseworkers to take notice of abuse and neglect, she says, and it will be more difficult to find someone to report problems to, potentially skewing the collection data. 关于美国儿童福利的最新数据截止到2008年9月，那时经济危机还未全面上演；2009年的数据今年晚些时候才会公布。但即将公布的数据的准确性遭到质疑。许多州县正考虑削减在儿童福利服务上的开支，比如减少给养父母津贴、削减雇佣社工的人数，以便应对财政困难。华盛顿区美国大学的玛丽汉森称，2006年至2007间，社会工作者的平均工作量就已增加了7%。她说，预算进一步减少，关注受忽视和受虐儿童的社会工作者也会减少，更难找到人负责受理问题，这可能会影响收集的数据的准确性。In the meantime, more parents are trying to keep their families intact. New York Foundling, an agency in New York, runs a crisis centre, where parents can leave their children for up to three weeks. Requests for beds increased 20% in the last year. Safe Families, a non-profit outfit that places children in temporary homes with volunteer families until jobless parents can get back on their feet, saw the number of childr