罗宾斯管理学 决策

规划与决策Planning DecisionMaking Chapter3 2 6 2 Definition 决策 Decision Makingachoicefromtwoormorealternatives 在两个或多个选项中作出选择Lowleveltohighlevelmanagersmakedecisions Allorganizationalmembersmakedecisionsthataffecttheirjobsandorganizationtheyworkfor 6 3 Universalityofdecisionmaking Managersatalllevelsmakedecisions butparticularlyimportanttomanagersDecisionmakingispartofallfourmanagerialfunctions Planning Organizing Leading andControllingMakingdecisionsistheessenceofthemanagement Managersarecalleddecisionmakers Howdoyoumakedecisions 入学考试面试题 为何考上海大学 考进了大学你准备做什么 未来的职业设想是什么 你们的回答 上海大学很美丽 很有名我要认真学习 考证书 7 4 决策常见的问题 片面短见感性即刻满足前后矛盾短期决策与长期目标不一致等等 7 5 Howdomanagersmakedecisions 管理者如何作出贤明的决定 7 6 6 7 Contents EightStepsintheDecision MakingProcessThreeWaysManagersMakeDecisionsDecisionsandDecision MakingConditionsDecision MakingStylesandhowbiasesaffectdecisionmakingChallengesfordecisionmakers add EffectiveDecisionMakingTechniquesSituationsofdecisionmaking Chapter3 Whatarethegeneralfactorsaffectingmanagers decisionmaking 影响决策的因素 ProcessApproachesTypesofdecisionsConditionsManagersObjectivesErrorsandBiases 7 8 7 9 1 TheDecision MakingProcess 决策过程 7 10 Exhibit7 1TheDecision MakingProcess P179 TheDecision MakingProcessincludesEightstepsfromidentifyingaproblemtoevaluatingthedecisioneffectiveness 出处 罗宾斯 管理学 13e 决策过程 Source RobertN LussierConcepts Applications SkillDevelopment4e 7 11 6 12 2 TheWaysManagersMakingDecisions 管理者的决策方法 6 13 2 1RationalDecisionMakingapproach理性决策 DAssumptionsofRationalityManagersmakeconsistent value maximizingchoiceswithspecifiedconstraints Assumptionstodecisionmakers TheyAreperfectlyrational fullyobjective andlogical 明确目标 彻底逻辑 完全理性Havecarefullydefinedtheproblemandidentifiedallviablealternatives 清晰界定问题和全部选项Haveaclearandspecificgoal明确具体目标Willselectthealternativethatmaximizesoutcomesintheorganization sinterestsratherthanintheirpersonalinterests 满足组织最大利益 6 14 2 2BoundedRationalityDMApproach有限理性决策 DBoundedRationality 有限理性 Decisionmakingthat srational butarelimited bounded byanindividual sabilitytoprocessinformation Assumptionsarethatdecisionmakers WillnotseekoutorhaveknowledgeofallalternativesWillsatisfied choosethefirstalternativeencounteredthatsatisfactorilysolvestheproblem ratherthanmaximizetheoutcomeoftheirdecisionbyconsideringallalternativesandchoosingthebest Ex Tofindajob Mostdecisionsthatmanagersmakedon tfittheassumptionsofperfectrationality sotheysatisfice 7 15 6 16 后期决策受前期决策影响 BoundedRationality 有限理性 BoundedrationaldecisionmakinginfluencedbyOrganization sculture internalpolitics powerconsiderations andEscalationofcommitment 承诺升级 anincreasedcommitmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevidencethatitmayhavebeenwrong Ex Challengerspaceshuttledisaster 6 17 2 3IntuitiveDecision makingapproach直觉决策 TheRoleofIntuitionIntuitivedecisionmaking 直觉决策 Ismakingdecisionsonthebasisofexperience feelings andaccumulatedjudgment 6 18 Exhibit7 6WhatisIntuition FiveDifferentAspectsofIntuition Source BasedonL A BurkeandM K Miller TakingtheMysteryOutofIntuitiveDecisionMaking AcademyofManagementExecutive October1999 pp 91 99 P184 潜意识决策 情感决策 认知决策 经验决策 价值道德决策 直觉 7 19 3TypesofDecisionsandDecision MakingConditions决策类型与决策条件 7 20 3 1TypesofProblems Decisions问题类型与决策类型 StructuredProblems ProgrammedDecisionUnstructuredProblems NonprogrammedDecision 6 21 3 1TypesofDecisions StructuredProblemsandProgrammedDecisionsStructuredProblems结构性问题Definition Straightforward familiar andeasilydefinedproblems直接 熟悉并容易界定的问题Involvegoalsthatclear Arefamiliar haveoccurredbefore Areeasilyandcompletelydefined informationabouttheproblemisavailableandcomplete Example aserverinarestaurantspillsadrinkonacustomer scoatProgrammedDecisions程序化决策Definition Arepetitivedecisionthatcanbehandledbyaroutineapproach Example Themanagerofferstohavethecoatcleanedatrestaurant sexpense 6 22 1 Programmeddecision程序化决策 Policy 政策 Ageneralguidelineformakingadecisionaboutastructuredproblem Procedure 程序 Aseriesofinterrelatedstepsthatamanagercanusetorespond applyingapolicy toastructuredproblem Rule 规则 Anexplicitstatementthatlimitswhatamanageroremployeecanorcannotdo 6 23 Example Policy Procedure andRule Policy 政策 Acceptallcustomer returnedmerchandise Procedure 程序 Followallstepsforcompletingmerchandisereturndocumentation Rules 规则 Managersmustapproveallrefundsover 50 00 Nocreditpurchasesarerefundedforcash 6 24 ProblemsandDecisions cont d UnstructuredProblemsandNonprogrammedDecisionsUnstructuredProblems结构不良问题Definition Problemsthatareneworunusualandforwhichinformationisambiguousorincomplete Problemsthatwillrequirecustom madesolutions NonprogrammedDecisions非程序化决策Definition Auniqueandnonrecurringdecisionthatrequiresacustom madesolution唯一的和不可重复的决策 Decisionsthatgenerateuniqueresponses 7 25 Exhibit7 7ProgrammedversusNonprogrammedDecisions P187 7 26 3 2Decision MakingConditions决策制定条件 Certainty 确定性 Definition Asituationinwhichamanagercanmakeanaccuratedecisionbecausetheoutcomeofeveryalternativechoiceisknown Example wheretodepositmoneyRisk 风险性 Definition Asituationinwhichthemanagerisabletoestimatethelikelihood probability ofoutcomesthatresultfromthechoiceofparticularalternatives Example nextpage P187 6 27 Decision MakingConditions Uncertainty 不确定性 Definition AsituationinwhichadecisionmakerhasneithercertaintynorreasonableprobabilityestimatesavailableLimitedinformationpreventsestimationofoutcomeprobabilitiesforalternativesassociatedwiththeproblemandmayforcemanagerstorelyonintuition 6 28 Decision MakingConditions AnExampleofDecision MakinginanUncertaintyConditionMaximax theoptimisticmanager schoicetomaximizethemaximumpayoffMaximin thepessimisticmanager schoicetomaximizetheminimumpayoffMinimax themanager schoicetominimizemaximumregret 6 29 Exhibit7 9PayoffMatrix Example WhichStrategyWillUChoose SupposeyouareasalesmanagerofVISA P189 罗宾斯管理学 6 30 Exhibit7 9PayoffMatrix Maxmaxchoice Maxminchoice P189 6 31 Exhibit7 10RegretMatrix Minimaxchoice P190 24 13 24 9 24 24 24 18 21 14 21 15 21 21 21 14 28 11 28 18 28 15 28 28 6 32 Review Decision MakinginanUncertaintyCondition利益可能性的最大化抉择Maximax theoptimisticmanager schoicetomaximizethemaximumpayoff ThinkaboutthelargestPossiblegain 利益最低可能性的最大化决策Maximin thepessimisticmanager schoicetomaximizetheminimumpayoff ThinkaboutthelowestPossiblegain 后悔程度最小化决策Minimax themanager schoicetominimizemaximumregret ThinkaboutminimizingthePossibleregret 6 33 4 Decision MakingStyles决策者的风格 线性有逻辑的非线性直觉的集体参与的决策个人独断的决策当机立断式深思熟虑式恰到好处式 6 34 4 1Linear Nonlinearthinkingstyleprofile Linearthinkingstyle Nonlinearthinkingstyle Adecisionstylecharacterizedbyaperson spreferenceforusingexternaldataandfactsandprocessingthisinformationthroughrational logicalthinking Adecisionstylecharacterizedbyaperson spreferenceforinternalsourcesofinformationandprocessingthisinformationwithinternalinsights feelings andhunches直觉 6 35 Exhibit7 11CommonDecision MakingErrorsandBiases 4 212Decision MakingBiasesandErrors P191 6 36 4 212Decision MakingBiasesandErrors Heuristics启示法Using rulesofthumb tosimplifydecisionmaking 1 OverconfidenceBias自负偏见Holdingunrealisticallypositiveviewsofone sselfandone sperformance 2 ImmediateGratificationBias即时满足偏见Choosingalternativesthatofferimmediaterewardsandthattoavoidimmediatecosts 6 37 Decision MakingBiasesandErrors cont d 3 AnchoringEffect锚定效应Fixatingoninitialinformationandignoringsubsequentinformation 4 SelectivePerceptionBias选择认识偏见Selectingorganizingandinterpretingeventsbasedonthedecisionmaker sbiasedperceptions 5 ConfirmationBias证实偏见Seekingoutinformationthatreaffirmspastchoicesanddiscountingcontradictoryinformation 6 38 Decision MakingBiasesandErrors cont d 6 FramingBias框架效应偏见Selectingandhighlightingcertainaspectsofasituationwhileignoringotheraspects 7 AvailabilityBias有效性 眼前 偏向Losingdecision makingobjectivitybyfocusingonthemostrecentevents 8 RepresentationBias典型性偏见Drawinganalogiesandseeingidenticalsituationswhennoneexist 9 RandomnessBias随机性偏见Creatingunfoundedmeaningoutofrandomevents 6 39 Decision MakingBiasesandErrors cont d 10 SunkCostsErrors沉没成本错误Forgettingthatcurrentactionscannotinfluencepasteventsandrelateonlytofutureconsequences 11 Self ServingBias自利性偏向Takingquickcreditforsuccessesandblamingoutsidefactorsforfailures 12 HindsightBias后见偏向Mistakenlybelievingthataneventcouldhavebeenpredictedoncetheactualoutcomeisknown after the fact