【精品】2011年4月24日联考行测真题与答案解析 ...20

,Economic Development of Japan,No.13 The Bubble Burst and Recession,Nikkei Stock Average 225,Urban land price indexSource: Japan Real Estate Institute,P.202,Industrial ProductionBase year 2005,P.205,2010 prel.,2010,2009,2008,Production,Shipment,Inventory,GDP,After the bubble burst, economy looked up in 1996-97, 2000, 2003-07, 2010, 2012.Economy fell in 2008-09 due to global Lehman Shock, which had greater macroeconomic impact than the earthquake.2011-12: global Euro shock,2011,The Heisei Bubble (Economic Boom in late 1980s),CausesStructuralbank deregulation and the loss of large corporate borrowers in the early 1980s led banks to overlend to risky borrowers (SMEs, real estate developers) without proper risk management.Monetaryas the yen rose sharply after 1985, the Bank of Japan injected liquidity to counter it and ease endaka fukyo (high-yen caused recession). This led to asset bubbles without igniting inflation.Consequences Excess investment in properties, over-expansion in capacity, lavish consumption, rise in outward FDI,PP.202-203,Japans Lost Decade (early 1990s-early 2000s):Why Did the Recession Last So Long?,Long adjustment after a large asset bubbleNon-performing loans (late policy response)Japans economic system became obsolete (*)Aging population and associated problems (pension, medical care, dissaving, etc) (*)Snowballing fiscal debt (*)Peoples lack of confidence in the future or policy (*)The China challenge (*)Lack of political leadership to propose solutions, convince people, and implement actions(*) True even today,P.206,Non performing loans-Jusen problem: failure of nonbanks specializing in real estate loans (1995-96)-Bankruptcies of Yamaichi Securities Dec.2008-)-Inflation targeting (debated but not adopted) (“1%” Feb.2012)-Foreign exchange intervention to prevent yen appreciation (but without aggressive yen depreciation),Policy Issues for the Bank of Japan,PP.207-210,Call rate (interbank short-term interest rate),Money & bank lending,Bubble,Zerointerest ratepolicy,Excess reserves are built up during zero interest rate periods,Source: McKinnon (2007),Buy Dollar (resist yen appreciation),Sell Dollar (resist yen depreciation),Monthly Changes in International Reserves(Proxy for F/X intervention),Yen/USD,International Reserves,Credit & Trust BankLong-term Credit BankHokkaido Takushoku BankChuo Trust BankMitsui Trust BankSumitomo Trust BankDaiwa BankSaitama BankKyowa BankYasuda Trust BankIndustrial Bank of JapanFuji BankDaiichi Kangyo BankSumitomo BankTaiyo Kobe BankMitsui BankToyo Trust BankTokai BankSanwa BankJapan Trust BankMitsubishi Trust BankBank of TokyoMitsubishi Bank,AozoraShinsei,Bankrupted,Bankrupted,Chuo Mitsui Trust,(Merged),Mitsui Sumitomo Trust Holdings,Asahi,Saitama Kyowa,Daiwa,Risona Holdings,Mizuho,Mizuho Asset Trust,Mizuho Financial Group,Taiyo Kobe Mitsui,Sakura,Mitsui Sumitomo,Mitsui Sumitomo Financial Group,UFJ,Mitsubishi Tokyo,Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,Debate on Fiscal Stimuli,Since the 1990s, large fiscal spending has been used to stimulate the economy. But there was no strong recovery, while the government debt skyrocketed.Some argued for even bigger stimuli; others said that would only worsen the debt crisis.,PP.211-212,Government debt in % of GDP,Bubble burst,PM Koizumi (2001-06) set limits on spending (infrastructure, welfare).PM Aso (2008-) and DPJ (2009-) returned to big fiscal spending.,Koizumi,Abe,Fukuda,Aso,Hatoyama,Kan,LDP,DPJ,Noda,Recovery, Global Recession, Recovery,Main causes of recovery (2003-2007)-Strong foreign demand (US, China)-Decade-long corporate restructuring effort-Yen depreciation (up to 2007) Recovery was not mainly due to reforms or good macro policiesGlobal financial crisis (late 2008-2009)Traditional industrial exports (cars, electronics) which led recovery suddenly lost export markets.Thanks to strong demand in China and other emerging economies, growth picked up in 2010Earthquake & tsunami, and Euro Shock (2011-2012)Production fell temporarily in 2011 due to supply chain disruption and depressed psychology, but recovered soon due to the start of vigorous reconstruction investment.Recovery is fragile due to global recession (incl. China), yen appreciation, power shortage, etc.,Politics: The End of the 1955 Regime?,The last three Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) governments were weak and unpopular (Abe, Fukuda, Aso).In July 2007 election, opposition seized majority in the Upper House-“twisted politics” causes confrontation and slowdownIn Aug. 2009 election, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) took over the Lower Houseend of the 1995 Regime?In July 2010, DPJ lost the Upper House: weak leadership, political mishandlings? “Twisted politics” again.Weak leadership continues; popular discontent with random measures over tax, welfare, growth, TPP, Okinawa, future power, etc.,LDP dominance based on rural expenditure and support,Two party politicswith clear policy choicefor voters,?,Earthquake and Nuclear Disaster in 2011:Immediate impact and issues,Earthquake relief budget is expected about 10-20 trillion yen or 2-4% of GDP (excl. atomic power related costs). In 1995, the Kobe earthquake cost 3 trillion yen. Debate over funding: tax increase, debt issue or cutting unnecessary spending (small saving?). But fiscal problem is caused not mainly by earthquake but by social welfare explosion.Growth impact of earthquake may be neutral: output loss offset by private & public investment for recovery. Supply chain disruption is usually followed by sharp recovery.Government (PM Kan, PM Noda)s handling of reconstruction plan, radiation problem, power shortage & future energy policy is random and inconsistent. Businesses fear loss of competitiveness and domestic production base due to political risk.,Crisis Management: Learning from International Best Practices,Emergency management headquarters (headed by PM) and taskforces should be established within a few days.HQ should have daily meetings to hear reports and give orders to TFs. PM should be the hub of coordination and dissemination of information and policy directions.TFs should be made up of officials & experts. Relevant ministry should be the secretariat. Unresolved problems and multi-sectoral issues should be taken up to the HQ meeting.Workload should shift from TF1-5 (immediate problems) to TF6 (reconstruction plan) over time. Recovery & reconstruction vision must be declared within one month followed by detailed roadmaps and action plans within 3-6 months.,Headquarters,Victim support,Transport & logistics,Relief funds& volunteers,Nuclearaccident,Powershortage,Long-term reconstruction plan,TF1,TF2,TF3,TF4,TF5,TF6,MOVIE: GO! TO THE BUBBLE (2007),The Concept of MonozukuriJapanese Style Skill-based Manufacturing,Monozukuri means “making things” in native Japanese.Pursuit of high quality and customer satisfaction as the primary goal with pride and dedication; profits or balance sheets a secondary consideration.Features long-term relationship and skill & knowledge building within companies and among companies.Strong demand for 5S, QCD, kaizen, quality control (QCC & TQM), and other efforts for constant improvement.,Performance,Time,Time,Business Architectures,Takahiro Fujimoto (Tokyo Univ),Basic Classifications of Product-Process Architecture,Modular architecture one-to-one correspondence between functional and structural elementsIntegral architecture many-to-many correspondence between the functional and structural elements,Body,Suspension,Engine,Handling,Ride,Fuel Efficiency,PC,PC System,Automobile,Computing,Printer,Projection,Projector,Printing,Open architecture：“mix and match” of component designs across firmClosed architecture：mix and match only within a firm,C Takahiro Fujimoto, University of Tokyo,(1) Closed-integral , (2) Closed-modular, (3) Open-modular,Three Basic Types of Product Architecture,C Takahiro Fujimoto, University of Tokyo,Closed-Integral,Open-Modular,Predictions on Architecture-based Comparative AdvantageJapanese firms - integration capability More competitive in products with closed-integral architecture. based on integration-based manufacturing capabilityChinese firms mobilization capability More competitive in labor-intensive products with open-modular (or quasi-open) archit