大连海事-财务管理研究生公司理财Chapter-11ppt课件

11 ProjectAnalysisandEvaluation 11 1 KeyConceptsandSkills UnderstandforecastingriskandsourcesofvalueUnderstandandbeabletodoscenarioandsensitivityanalysisUnderstandthevariousformsofbreak evenanalysisUnderstandoperatingleverageUnderstandcapitalrationing 11 2 ChapterOutline EvaluatingNPVEstimatesScenarioandOtherWhat IfAnalysesBreak EvenAnalysisOperatingCashFlow SalesVolume andBreak EvenOperatingLeverageCapitalRationing 11 3 EvaluatingNPVEstimates NPVestimatesarejustthat estimatesApositiveNPVisagoodstart nowweneedtotakeacloserlookForecastingrisk howsensitiveisourNPVtochangesinthecashflowestimates themoresensitive thegreatertheforecastingriskSourcesofvalue whydoesthisprojectcreatevalue 11 4 ScenarioAnalysis WhathappenstotheNPVunderdifferentcashflowsscenarios Attheveryleastlookat Bestcase highrevenues lowcostsWorstcase lowrevenues highcostsMeasureoftherangeofpossibleoutcomesBestcaseandworstcasearenotnecessarilyprobable buttheycanstillbepossible 11 5 NewProjectExample ConsidertheprojectdiscussedinthetextTheinitialcostis 200 000andtheprojecthasa5 yearlife Thereisnosalvage Depreciationisstraight line therequiredreturnis12 andthetaxrateis34 ThebasecaseNPVis15 567 11 6 SummaryofScenarioAnalysis 11 7 SensitivityAnalysis WhathappenstoNPVwhenwevaryonevariableatatimeThisisasubsetofscenarioanalysiswherewearelookingattheeffectofspecificvariablesonNPVThegreaterthevolatilityinNPVinrelationtoaspecificvariable thelargertheforecastingriskassociatedwiththatvariableandthemoreattentionwewanttopaytoitsestimation 11 8 SummaryofSensitivityAnalysisforNewProject 11 9 SimulationAnalysis SimulationisreallyjustanexpandedsensitivityandscenarioanalysisMonteCarlosimulationcanestimatethousandsofpossibleoutcomesbasedonconditionalprobabilitydistributionsandconstraintsforeachofthevariablesTheoutputisaprobabilitydistributionforNPVwithanestimateoftheprobabilityofobtainingapositivenetpresentvalueThesimulationonlyworksaswellastheinformationthatisenteredandverybaddecisionscanbemadeifcareisnottakentoanalyzetheinteractionbetweenvariables 11 10 MakingADecision Beware ParalysisofAnalysis AtsomepointyouhavetomakeadecisionIfthemajorityofyourscenarioshavepositiveNPVs thenyoucanfeelreasonablycomfortableaboutacceptingtheprojectIfyouhaveacrucialvariablethatleadstoanegativeNPVwithasmallchangeintheestimates thenyoumaywanttoforegotheproject 11 11 Break EvenAnalysis CommontoolforanalyzingtherelationshipbetweensalesvolumeandprofitabilityTherearethreecommonbreak evenmeasuresAccountingbreak even salesvolumeatwhichnetincome 0Cashbreak even salesvolumeatwhichoperatingcashflow 0Financialbreak even salesvolumeatwhichnetpresentvalue 0 11 12 Example Costs Therearetwotypesofcoststhatareimportantinbreakevenanalysis variableandfixedTotalvariablecosts quantity costperunitFixedcostsareconstant regardlessofoutput oversometimeperiodTotalcosts fixed variable FC vQExample Yourfirmpays 3000permonthinfixedcosts Youalsopay 15perunittoproduceyourproduct Whatisyourtotalcostifyouproduce1000units Whatifyouproduce5000units 11 13 Averagevs MarginalCost AverageCostTC ofunitsWilldecreaseas ofunitsincreasesMarginalCostThecosttoproduceonemoreunitSameasvariablecostperunitExample WhatistheaveragecostandmarginalcostundereachsituationinthepreviousexampleProduce1000units Average 18 000 1000 18Produce5000units Average 78 000 5000 15 60 11 14 AccountingBreak Even ThequantitythatleadstoazeronetincomeNI Sales VC FC D 1 T 0QP vQ FC D 0Q P v FC DQ FC D P v 11 15 UsingAccountingBreak Even Accountingbreak evenisoftenusedasanearlystagescreeningnumberIfaprojectcannotbreak evenonanaccountingbasis thenitisnotgoingtobeaworthwhileprojectAccountingbreak evengivesmanagersanindicationofhowaprojectwillimpactaccountingprofit 11 16 AccountingBreak EvenandCashFlow WearemoreinterestedincashflowthanweareinaccountingnumbersAslongasafirmhasnon cashdeductions therewillbeapositivecashflowIfafirmjustbreaks evenonanaccountingbasis cashflow depreciationIfafirmjustbreaks evenonanaccountingbasis NPV 0 11 17 Example ConsiderthefollowingprojectAnewproductrequiresaninitialinvestmentof 5millionandwillbedepreciatedtoanexpectedsalvageofzeroover5yearsThepriceofthenewproductisexpectedtobe 25 000andthevariablecostperunitis 15 000Thefixedcostis 1millionWhatistheaccountingbreak evenpointeachyear Depreciation 5 000 000 5 1 000 000Q 1 000 000 1 000 000 25 000 15 000 200units 11 18 SalesVolumeandOperatingCashFlow Whatistheoperatingcashflowattheaccountingbreak evenpoint ignoringtaxes OCF S VC FC D DOCF 200 25 000 200 15 000 1 000 000 1 000 000 1 000 000Whatisthecashbreak evenquantity OCF P v Q FC D D P v Q FCQ OCF FC P v Q 0 1 000 000 25 000 15 000 100units 11 19 ThreeTypesofBreak EvenAnalysis AccountingBreak evenWhereNI 0Q FC D P v CashBreak evenWhereOCF 0Q FC OCF P v ignoringtaxes FinancialBreak evenWhereNPV 0CashBE AccountingBE FinancialBE 11 20 Example Break EvenAnalysis ConsiderthepreviousexampleAssumearequiredreturnof18 Accountingbreak even 200Cashbreak even 100Whatisthefinancialbreak evenpoint SimilarprocesstothatoffindingthebidpriceWhatOCF orpayment makesNPV 0 N 5 PV 5 000 000 I Y 18 CPTPMT 1 598 889 OCFQ 1 000 000 1 598 889 25 000 15 000 260unitsThequestionnowbecomes Canwesellatleast260unitsperyear 11 21 OperatingLeverage OperatingleverageistherelationshipbetweensalesandoperatingcashflowDegreeofoperatingleveragemeasuresthisrelationshipThehighertheDOL thegreaterthevariabilityinoperatingcashflowThehigherthefixedcosts thehighertheDOLDOLdependsonthesaleslevelyouarestartingfromDOL 1 FC OCF 11 22 Example DOL ConsiderthepreviousexampleSupposesalesare300unitsThismeetsallthreebreak evenmeasuresWhatistheDOLatthissaleslevel OCF 25 000 15 000 300 1 000 000 2 000 000DOL 1 1 000 000 2 000 000 1 5WhatwillhappentoOCFifunitsalesincreasesby20 PercentagechangeinOCF DOL PercentagechangeinQPercentagechangeinOCF