报表分析研究7

財務報表分析-半導體設備,指導教授:王淑芬第五組學生:邱靖雯.黃嘉興.劉順吉.王譽璇.中華民國九十六年十二月,國立交通大學財務金融研究所在職專班,報告章節,半導體設備產業簡介主要設備廠商財報分析半導體設備商產業特色結論,半導體設備產業簡介,半導體產業結構,AMDFabAnnouncementfrom2003,AMDBreaksGroundon300MillimeterManufacturingFacilityinDresden,GermanyMovetoExpandManufacturingCapacityDrivenbyPositiveCustomerResponseandIncreasedMarketOpportunitiesforAMD64ProcessorsSUNNYVALE,CAANDDRESDEN,GERMANY-November20,2003-AMD(NYSE:AMD)announcedtodaythatithasbrokengroundona300millimeter(mm)manufacturingfacility(or“fab”).Thefacility,namedAMDFab36,ispartofAMDDresdenFab36LLC&Co.KGandwillbelocatedinDresden,Germany,adjacenttoAMDFab30.AMDFab36isexpectedtobeinvolumeproductionin2006.Thenewfacilityisexpectedtorequireapproximately1,000employees,mostofthemhighlyskilledengineersandtechnicians.“PositivecustomerresponseandincreasingmomentumforourAMD64processorsmakeitclearthatthetimeisrighttoexpandourmanufacturingcapacityinordertoeffectivelymeetfuturedemand,”saidHectorRuiz,presidentandCEOatAMD.“Ouraggressivepushintotheenterprisecomputingmarketcontinuestogaintraction,asevidencedbySunsrecentadoptionoftheAMDOpteronprocessorandthegrowingsuccessofserverandworkstationsolutionsfromIBM,FujitsuSiemensandothers.”“BybuildinginDresden,weareabletoleveragetheoutstandingcapabilitiesofourexistingAMDFab30andgainaccesstothemostsubstantialgovernment-backedfinancialincentivespackageavailabletous,”saidBobRivet,chieffinancialofficeratAMD.“WeexpectAMDFab36willcostapproximatelyUS$2.4billionoverthenextfouryears.Wehavearrangedexternalfinancingandgovernmentsupportofapproximately$1.5billionduringthatperiod.WebelieveAMDFab36offersthebestsolutionformeetingfuturecustomerdemandwhileadvancinglong-termshareholdervalue.”,FabEquipmentAllocation,Totalcost$2600M25%building$650M,$1950forEquipmentHowdoesthe$1950dividedbetweenthedifferentequipmenttypeLitho:$410M(ASML,Nikon,Canon)Track(Coater,Developer):$97M(TEL)Removal(EtchandCMP):$487M(Lam,TEL,AMAT,Ebara)Deposition:$390M(AMAT)Thermal(Furnace,RTP):$78M(TEL,AMAT)Implant:$78M(Variant)Processcontrol(Inspectionandmetrology):$292M(KLA-Tencor)FactoryAutomation:$78M(BrooksAutomation,ASYST),NewAMDFabAnnouncement,FORIMMEDIATERELEASE:June23,2006GOVERNORPATAKIANDAMDSCEORUIZANNOUNCEPLANSFORMULTI-BILLIONDOLLAR300MMSEMICONDUCTORMANUFACTURINGPLANTPlanWouldAllowfortheLargestPrivateInvestmentinNYSHistoryMostAdvancedPlantintheWorld,CreatingOver1,200High-TechJobs,ThousandsofConstructionJobsandMoreThan3,000IndirectJobsGovernorGeorgeE.Pataki,Dr.HectorRuiz,ChairmanandCEOofAdvancedMicroDevices(NYSE:AMD),SenateMajorityLeaderJosephL.BrunoandAssemblySpeakerSheldonSilvertodayannouncedplansforoneofthelargestprivatesectorindustrialinvestmentsinNewYorkStatehistory-amulti-billiondollardealthatwouldenableAMDtobuildandoperatethemostadvancedsemiconductormanufacturingfacilityintheworldattheLutherForestTechnologyPark.Thisunprecedentedeconomicdevelopmentprojectisprojectedtocreatemorethan1,200newhigh-techjobs,thousandsofconstructionjobs,andmorethan3,000indirectjobs.Underthetermsoftheagreement,AMDwouldbeabletoconstructanew,$600million,1.2millionsquarefootfacility,equippedwithapproximately$2.6billioninstate-of-the-arttoolsdesignedtoproduce300mmwafersusing32nmprocesstechnology.,全球主要半導體設備商營收及市占率,前五大半導體設備商簡介,SEMINorthAmericanBook-to-BillReport,SEMIbeganpublishingbook-to-billtrendsforsemiconductorcapitalequipmentin1991.BasedonNorthAmericanheadquarteredcompaniesreportingglobalnetbookingsandbillings.Includessemiconductorapplicationsonly.Book-to-billratiocalculatedfromthreemonthaverageofbookingsdividedbythreemonthaverageofbillings.Individualcompanydatacollectedandcompiledeachmonththroughanindependentthirdpartytoprotectparticipantcompanyconfidentiality.Eventhoughpresentedona3-monthaveragebasis,billingscanbehigherforthequarterendingmonths,especiallyduringanupcycleinthebillingtrends.,訂單與股價相關性,半導体設備支出佔營收百分比趨勢,全球DRAM廠之資本支出持續成長,全球半導體設備區域市場營收表現,主要設備廠商財報分析,五大半導體設備商會計年度,會計原則改變對財報的影響,TELaccountingmethodchangeeffectivefromfiscalyear2005RevenuerecognitionuponreceivingcustomerCSTRevenue:decreased￥80,956million(12.7%)Operatingincome:decreased￥20,541million(32.1%)AftersalesrepairexpensesbyrecordingaccruedwarrantyexpensesOperatingincome:decreased￥635million(10%),財務報表五力分析,現金佔總資產比率:平均25%,AMAT於2004年曾達18.8%，但自2005年以後降至8%。由財報及相關報導得知:2005-2006兩年陸續買回庫藏股17億美元。2006年發行現金股利。2006年跨足太陽能產業，併購兩家以上的公司，其中一家4.6億美元。同時也造成流動比率和速動比率大量減少，流動比率5.352.5；速動比率4.611.8。,現金佔總資產比率,ASML的現金比率為業內最高，2005年曾一度高達5成，2006年亦有4成。浸潤式微影設備一台售價約7-8億台幣。,應收帳款,應收帳款佔總資產比率,五家比率與平均值相近。應收帳款收現天數約100天左右。TEL的資產負債表上科目:Customeradvance約佔流動負債的10%,此客戶預付款等同不付息負債。認列營收時即沖銷此部分應收帳款。因此應收帳款收現天數無法呈現尾款帳齡時間很長的現象。,存貨佔總資產比率:平均15%,五家個別差異頗大。AMAT前兩年都低於10%，2006年卻升至15%。TEL的比率是最高的，連續三年都在25%。美系公司的比率都偏低。,負債結構,負債占總資產比率平均值35%。AMAT2006年成長至3成，可能與購併、買回庫藏股、發行現金股利有關。ASML,TEL的負債比率很高，但有逐年下降的趨勢。,以TEL為例-,1.日本利率低，整體籌資成本相對低廉。2.TEL股利政策-發行現金股利。,各設備廠商經營狀況分析,從營收、EPS、ROA/ROE及Z-SCORE模型來看,10YearsRevenue,指導教授:王淑芬第五組學生:邱靖雯.黃嘉興.劉順吉.王譽璇.,AMAT10yearsrevenue,ASML10yearsrevenue,KLATencore10yearsrevenue,LRCX10yearsrevenue,AMATEPS10years,AMATROA/ROE,ASMLEPS10Years,ASMLROA/ROE,KLACEPS10Years,KLACROA/ROE,LRCXEPS10Years,LRCXROA/ROE,Z-SCORE模型,1968年歐特曼提出從22項財務變數中篩選出5個具代表性為:X1:(營運資金)/(總資產帳面價值)X2:(保留盈餘)/(總資產帳面價值)X3:(息前稅前淨利)/(總資產帳面價值)X4:(權益市值)/(總負債帳面價值)X5:(營業收入)/(總資產帳面價值)Z=1.2*X1+1.4*X2+3.3*X3+0.6*X4+1.0*X5Z模型是將X4的權益市值改以帳面價值取代,.,41,Z-SCORE模型分析,從實證結果發現每一家公司不論是Z或Z值皆大於2.99顯示公司體質尚符合大投資人的預期。,半導體設備商產業特性,半導體設備商產業特性,半導體設備商景氣伴隨半導體製造大廠的資本支出多寡而起伏19802000年全球半導體資本支出複合成長率（CAGR）14.6，而同期全球半導體設備出貨量CAGR為14.3，這2個數據幾乎是一模一樣龐大的研費經費支出應用材料，2005年研發費用9.41億美元，佔整體營收為13.5。ASML，2005年研發費用3.24億美元