财务报表分析与长期计划PPT课件

FinancialStatementsAnalysisandLong-TermPlanning,KeyConceptsandSkills,KnowhowtostandardizefinancialstatementsforcomparisonpurposesKnowhowtocomputeandinterpretimportantfinancialratiosBeabletodevelopafinancialplanusingthepercentageofsalesapproachUnderstandhowcapitalstructureanddividendpoliciesaffectafirmsabilitytogrow,ChapterOutline,3.1FinancialStatementsAnalysis3.2RatioAnalysis3.3TheDuPontIdentity3.4UsingFinancialStatementInformation3.5Long-TermFinancialPlanning3.6ExternalFinancingandGrowth3.7SomeCaveatsRegardingFinancialPlanningModels,3.1FinancialStatementsAnalysis,Common-SizeBalanceSheetsComputeallaccountsasapercentoftotalassetsCommon-SizeIncomeStatementsComputealllineitemsasapercentofsalesStandardizedstatementsmakeiteasiertocomparefinancialinformation,particularlyasthecompanygrows.Theyarealsousefulforcomparingcompaniesofdifferentsizes,particularlywithinthesameindustry.,3.2RatioAnalysis,Ratiosalsoallowforbettercomparisonthroughtimeorbetweencompanies.Aswelookateachratio,askyourself:Howistheratiocomputed?Whatistheratiotryingtomeasureandwhy?Whatistheunitofmeasurement?Whatdoesthevalueindicate?Howcanweimprovethecompanysratio?,CategoriesofFinancialRatios,Short-termsolvencyorliquidityratiosLong-termsolvency,orfinancialleverage,ratiosAssetmanagementorturnoverratiosProfitabilityratiosMarketvalueratios,ComputingLiquidityRatios,CurrentRatio=CA/CL708/540=1.31timesQuickRatio=(CAInventory)/CL(708-422)/540=.53timesCashRatio=Cash/CL98/540=.18times,ComputingLeverageRatios,TotalDebtRatio=(TATE)/TA(3588-2591)/3588=28%Debt/Equity=TD/TE(35882591)/2591=38.5%EquityMultiplier=TA/TE=1+D/E1+.385=1.385,ComputingCoverageRatios,TimesInterestEarned=EBIT/Interest691/141=4.9timesCashCoverage=(EBIT+Depreciation)/Interest(691+276)/141=6.9times,ComputingInventoryRatios,InventoryTurnover=CostofGoodsSold/Inventory1344/422=3.2timesDaysSalesinInventory=365/InventoryTurnover365/3.2=114days,ComputingReceivablesRatios,ReceivablesTurnover=Sales/AccountsReceivable2311/188=12.3timesDaysSalesinReceivables=365/ReceivablesTurnover365/12.3=30days,ComputingTotalAssetTurnover,TotalAssetTurnover=Sales/TotalAssets2311/3588=.64timesItisnotunusualforTAT1,especiallyifafirmhasalargeamountoffixedassets.,ComputingProfitabilityMeasures,ProfitMargin=NetIncome/Sales363/2311=15.7%ReturnonAssets(ROA)=NetIncome/TotalAssets363/3588=10.1%ReturnonEquity(ROE)=NetIncome/TotalEquity363/2591=14.0%,ComputingMarketValueMeasures,MarketPrice=$88pershareSharesoutstanding=33millionPERatio=Pricepershare/Earningspershare88/11=8timesMarket-to-bookratio=marketvaluepershare/bookvaluepershare88/(2591/33)=1.12times,3.3TheDuPontIdentity,ROE=NI/TEMultiplyby1andthenrearrange:ROE=(NI/TE)(TA/TA)ROE=(NI/TA)(TA/TE)=ROA*EMMultiplyby1againandthenrearrange:ROE=(NI/TA)(TA/TE)(Sales/Sales)ROE=(NI/Sales)(Sales/TA)(TA/TE)ROE=PM*TAT*EM,UsingtheDuPontIdentity,ROE=PM*TAT*EMProfitmarginisameasureofthefirmsoperatingefficiencyhowwellitcontrolscosts.Totalassetturnoverisameasureofthefirmsassetuseefficiencyhowwellitmanagesitsassets.Equitymultiplierisameasureofthefirmsfinancialleverage.,CalculatingtheDuPontIdentity,ROA=10.1%andEM=1.39ROE=10.1%*1.385=14.0%PM=15.7%andTAT=0.64ROE=15.7%*0.64*1.385=14.0%,3.4UsingFinancialStatements,Ratiosarenotveryhelpfulbythemselves:theyneedtobecomparedtosomethingTime-TrendAnalysisUsedtoseehowthefirmsperformanceischangingthroughtimePeerGroupAnalysisComparetosimilarcompaniesorwithinindustriesSICandNAICScodes,PotentialProblems,Thereisnounderlyingtheory,sothereisnowaytoknowwhichratiosaremostrelevant.Benchmarkingisdifficultfordiversifiedfirms.Globalizationandinternationalcompetitionmakescomparisonmoredifficultbecauseofdifferencesinaccountingregulations.Firmsusevaryingaccountingprocedures.Firmshavedifferentfiscalyears.Extraordinary,orone-time,events,3.5Long-TermFinancialPlanning,InvestmentinnewassetsdeterminedbycapitalbudgetingdecisionsDegreeoffinancialleveragedeterminedbycapitalstructuredecisionsCashpaidtoshareholdersdeterminedbydividendpolicydecisionsLiquidityrequirementsdeterminedbynetworkingcapitaldecisions,FinancialPlanningIngredients,SalesForecastmanycashflowsdependdirectlyonthelevelofsales(oftenestimatesalesgrowthrate)ProFormaStatementssettinguptheplanasprojected(proforma)financialstatementsallowsforconsistencyandeaseofinterpretationAssetRequirementstheadditionalassetsthatwillberequiredtomeetsalesprojectionsFinancialRequirementstheamountoffinancingneededtopayfortherequiredassetsPlugVariabledeterminedbymanagementdecisionsaboutwhattypeoffinancingwillbeused(makesthebalancesheetbalance)EconomicAssumptionsexplicitassumptionsaboutthecomingeconomicenvironment,PercentofSalesApproach,Someitemsvarydirectlywithsales,othersdonot.IncomeStatementCostsmayvarydirectlywithsales-ifthisisthecase,thentheprofitmarginisconstantDepreciationandinterestexpensemaynotvarydirectlywithsalesifthisisthecase,thentheprofitmarginisnotconstantDividendsareamanagementdecisionandgenerallydonotvarydirectlywithsalesthisaffectsadditionstoretainedearnings,PercentofSalesApproach,BalanceSheetInitiallyassumeallassets,includingfixed,varydirectlywithsales.Accountspayablealsonormallyvarydirectlywithsales.Notespayable,long-termdebt,andequitygenerallydonotvarywithsalesbecausetheydependonmanagementdecisionsaboutcapitalstructure.Thechangeintheretainedearningsportionofequitywillcomefromthedividenddecision.ExternalFinancingNeeded(EFN)Thedifferencebetweentheforecastedincreaseinassetsandtheforecastedincreaseinliabilitiesandequity.,PercentofSalesandEFN,ExternalFinancingNeeded(EFN)canalsobecalculatedas:,3.6ExternalFinancingandGrowth,Atlowgrowthlevels,internalfinancing(retainedearnings)mayexceedtherequiredinvestmentinassets.Asthegrowthrateincreases,theinternalfinancingwillnotbeenough,andthefirmwillhavetogotothecapitalmarketsforfinancing.Examiningtherelationshipbetweengrowthandexternalfinancingrequiredisausefultoolinlong-rangeplanning.,TheInternalGrowthRate,Theinternalgrowthratetellsushowmuchthefirmcangrowassetsusingretainedearningsastheonlysourceoffinancing.UsingtheinformationfromtheHoffmanCo.ROA=66/500=.132b=44/66=.66700,TheSustainableGrowthRate,Thesustainablegrowthratetellsushowmuchthefirmcangrowbyusinginternallygeneratedfundsandissuingdebttomaintainaconstantdebtratio.UsingtheHoffmanCo.ROE=66/250=.264b=.667,DeterminantsofGrowth,ProfitmarginoperatingefficiencyTotalassetturnoverassetuseefficiencyFinancialleveragechoiceofoptimaldebtratioDividendpolicychoiceofhowmuchtopaytoshareholdersversusreinvestinginthefirm,3.7So