落基山脉能源项目评估分析案英文.ppt

,U.S.Energy&TheRoleofRockyMountainNaturalGas:CleanDomesticEnergyForaGrowingAmerica(2005),Thereisnoeconomy,beitnew,oldorevenfuturistic,thatwouldexistwithoutreliable,accessibleandaffordableenergy,BasicEnergyFacts,Thereisnoeconomy,beitnew,oldorevenfuturistic,thatwouldexistwithoutreliable,accessibleandaffordableenergy,BasicEnergyFacts,Overthepast25yearsU.S.demandforenergyhasincreasedby35%whileoursupplyhasonlyincreasedby17%,Thereisnoeconomy,beitnew,oldorevenfuturistic,thatwouldexistwithoutreliable,accessibleandaffordableenergy,BasicEnergyFacts,Weimport14%ofthegasand53%oftheoilweuse,Overthepast25yearsU.S.demandforenergyhasincreasedby35%whileoursupplyhasonlyincreasedby17%,PollsdemonstratethattheAmericanpublic:,Source:COGAFlowline,Vol.17,#3,BasicEnergyFacts,1.Takesenergyforgranted,PollsdemonstratethattheAmericanpublic:,Source:COGAFlowline,Vol.17,#3,BasicEnergyFacts,1.Takesenergyforgranted,2.Neitherunderstandsnorappreciateshowcheapourenergyisinconstantdollarsorincomparisontootherconsumernations,PollsdemonstratethattheAmericanpublic:,Source:COGAFlowline,Vol.17,#3,BasicEnergyFacts,1.Takesenergyforgranted,2.Neitherunderstandsnorappreciateshowcheapourenergyisinconstantdollarsorincomparisontootherconsumernations,3.Seemstobelievethemistakennotionthatenergyproductionnecessarilyentailsunacceptableenvironmentalimpact,InColoradoabout2,000drillingpermitsareissuedannuallycomparedtoabout50,000housingpermits,Source:COGAFlowline,Vol.17,#3,BasicEnergyFacts,OIL,TotalU.S.EnergyConsumptionbyPrimaryEnergySource2001,Source:EIA,Petroleum39.4%,NaturalGas22.8%,Coal23.1%,Other-3.9%,Hydro-2.5%,Nuclear-8.4%,WorldPetroleumDemand,25.9%,76.0MMbod,Source:EIA,Inthelast5yearstheworldconsumed27billionbarrels/year,buttheindustrydiscoveredonly3billionbarrels/yearTherefore:used135billionbarrelsofoilwhilediscovering15billionbarrelsofoil,Source:USGS,BasicEnergyFacts,WorldTopOilProducingCountriesin2001,U.S.9.0MMbo/dRussia8.8MMbo/dSaudiArabia8.0MMbo/dNorthSea(UK,Norway,Denmark)6.3MMbo/dIran3.7MMbo/dMexico3.6MMbo/dChina3.3MMbo/dVenezuela2.9MMbo/dCanada2.8MMbo/dIraq2.4MMbo/d,Source:EIA,U.S.PetroleumProductsProductionvs.U.S.PetroleumDemand,Production-25%,Demand+24%,Source:EIA,U.S.CrudeOilProduction&CrudeOilImports,Source:EIA,0,5,10,15,20,25,1973,1976,1979,1982,1985,1988,1991,1994,1997,2000,2001,QuadrillionBtu,OilProduction,OilImports,TopSuppliersofCrudeOiltoU.S.in2001,SaudiArabia1,611Mbo/dMexico1,394Mbo/dCanada1,356Mbo/dVenezuela1,291Mbo/dNigeria842Mbo/dIraq795Mbo/d,Source:EIA,NATURALGAS,TotalU.S.EnergyConsumptionbyPrimaryEnergySource2001,Source:EIA,Petroleum39.4%,NaturalGas22.8%,Coal23.1%,Other-3.9%,Hydro-2.5%,Nuclear-8.4%,U.S.NaturalGasConsumptionin200122.0Tcf,Source:Groppe,Long&Littell,Residential22%,Commercial15%,Industrial26%,ElectricUtilities26%,ChemicalsandMaterials3%,Other9%,U.S.NaturalGasConsumptionvs.DryProduction,Source:EIA,0,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,1973,1977,1981,1985,1989,1993,1997,2001,Bcfd,Consumption,Production,U.S.ShortfallinProductionvs.Consumption,Source:EIA,ProjectedNaturalGasDemand,Source:EIA,Tcfperyear,U.S.manufacturingisbasedonaffordableandreliablesuppliesofnaturalgas.Attheseprices,itisunlikelytheU.S.willattractnewmanufacturingcapital.Todaysgaspricesareforcingmanufacturerstoconsiderproductionoverseas.,Source:IndustrialEnergyConsumersofAmerica,ELECTRICITY,U.S.highwayfuelmarkettotals11-12MMbopdmakingitthesinglelargestpetroleummarketintheworldHowevertheenergycontentcreatingKilowattsintheU.S.isalmosttwiceaslargeasthehighwayfuelmarket!,ElectricityBasicEnergyFacts,BasicEnergyFacts,In2001nearly42%oftheenergyconsumedintheU.S.wasusedtogenerateelectricity.,Source:Groppe,Long&Littell,U.S.ElectricitySupplybySourcein2001,Source:EIA,NaturalGas,16.5%,Coal,51.5%,OtherGaseousFuels-0.5%,Geothermal,Solar,Wind-2.1%,Petroleum-3.4%,Hydro-5.8%,Nuclear,20.3%,FromendofWWIItostartof2000residentialandcommercialelectricaluseincreased51outof53yearsYetnosignificantnewpowerplantswerebuiltbetween1990and2000,BasicEnergyFacts,In2000,PCsandelectronicsconsumed13%ofournationsenergysupply.By2020,theseusesareexpectedtoconsume25%ofthenationsenergysupply.40%ofthecountryselectricityisusedtopowerairconditioners.,U.S.ElectricityNetGeneration,Source:Groppe,Long&Littell,0,1,2,3,4,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2001,BillionKilowattHours,1.6%CAGR,U.S.ElectricitySupplybySourcein2001,Source:EIA,NaturalGas,16.5%,Nuclear,20.3%,Coal,51.5%,OtherGaseousFuels-0.5%,Geothermal,Solar,Wind-2.1%,Petroleum-3.4%,Hydro5.8%,U.S.HydroelectricPowerProduction,Source:EIA,Overthepast25yearsU.S.demandforenergyhasincreasedby35%whileoursupplyhasonlyincreasedby17%,BasicEnergyFacts,BasicEnergyFacts,Oil,gasandhydroproductionareflattodownsowhathasincreasedenergysupply?,Overthepast25yearsU.S.demandforenergyhasincreasedby35%whileoursupplyhasonlyincreasedby17%,U.S.ElectricitySupplybySourcein2001,Source:EIA,NaturalGas,16.5%,Coal,51.5%,OtherGaseousFuels-0.5%,Geothermal,Solar,Wind-2.1%,Petroleum-3.4%,Hydro-5.8%,U.S.NuclearElectricPowerProduction,25,0,5,10,15,20,1973,1976,1979,1982,1985,1988,1991,1994,1997,2000,QuadrillionBtu,ThreeMileIsland,2001,Source:EIA,U.S.ElectricitySupplybySourcein2001,Source:EIA,NaturalGas,16.5%,OtherGaseousFuels-0.5%,Geothermal,Solar,Wind-2.1%,Petroleum-3.4%,Hydro-5.8%,U.S.ElectricPowerProductionfromCoal,Source:EIA,Coal,0,5,10,15,20,25,1973,1976,1979,1982,1985,1988,1991,1994,1997,2000,QuadrillionBtu,2001,Cantstoreelectricitylikeyoucanoilandgassoexcesscapacityisessential!Thenationisnowaddinggasfiredpowerplantsatanunprecedentedrate,ElectricityBasicEnergyFacts,EasiertopermitMorecostefficientTakeyearslesstoconstructDistributedlocationClean(50%ofcoalandoilpowerplantemissions),WhyGasFiredPowerPlants?,Source:EPA&AGA,AirPollutionEmissionsofNitrogenOxides(NOx),Source:EPA&AGA,AirPollutionEmissionsofSulpherDioxide(SOx),Source:EPA&AGA,AirPollutionEmissionsofParticulateMatter,Source:EPA&AGA,AirPollutionEmissionsofCarbonDioxide(CO2),RockiesrepresentthesinglelargestuntappedonshorenaturalgasbasinintheU.S.,Source:NationalPetroleumCouncil,EstimatedProvenandPotentialGasReservesintheU.S.(1,135Tcf),WhytheRockies?,Source:AAPGMemoir67,p.286.,BasinCenterGas(BCG),RockyMountainBCG,Hugeandlargelyuntapped“unconventional”naturalgasresourceAbnormallypressuredgasaccumulationsbelownormallypressuredwatersystemCompartmentalizednon-continuousgascolumns,Usuallylowpermreservoirsbuthighpermareasdoexist(sweetspots)Complexpoorlyunderstoodsystemwhichrepresentstremendousopportunity,RockyMountainBCG,TheseaccumulationshavedefiedexploitationbyconventionaltechniquesAdeepbasinhighpotential“frontier”existsinmatureprovince,RockyMountainBCG,Unconventionalresource1.4TCFGproducedannually7%ofU.S.gasproductionOver90%ofCBMproductioncamefromRockiesin2000,CoalBedMethane,CoalBedMethane,39.7TCFGmostlikelyrecoverablefromRockyMountainregionCBMpotentialofentireRockiesbeingreevaluatedaftersuccessinPowderRiver,Uinta,Raton&PiceanceBasins,Threeofthefourlargest(?)U.S.onshoregasdiscoveriesinlast25yearsareintheRockiesProducingSanJuanBasinCBM(1986)2,000MMcfdPowderRiverBasinCBM(1991)930MMcfdBarnettShale(1981)700MMcfdJonahBCG(1995)650MMcfd,U.S.DailyGasProduction1972-1999,Source:2000PotentialGasCommitteeReport,-24%,-36%,518%,0,10,20,30,40,GulfCoast,Mid-Continent,Rockies,Pacific,N.Central,Bcfd,-24%,-36%,518%,-21%,700%,U.S.GasSupply:WhytheRockies?,DiscounttoNYMEX,F=03(ActualJan-Feb,FuturesMar-Dec),04&05Futures2-7-03,$/MMbtu,1.15,0.60,0.31,0.25,0.52,0.78,1.25,1.77,1.08,0.84,VolatilepricesExcessiveregulationsInefficientpermittingproceduresLackoflandandleaseaccessibility,Whatisholdingusbackfromgrowingourgasproduction?,BarrierstoMeetingtheNationsDemandforNaturalGas,Source:NationalPetroleumCouncil,U.S.Lower-48NaturalGasReservesSubjecttoAccessRestrictions,LackofinfrastructureLackofimpactfulnewtechnology(“silverbullets”)Lackofprospects?,Whatisholdingusbackfromgrowingourgasproduction?,Mostofourgassupplyanddrillingactivityinlast10yearshascomefromextremelysuccessfulexploitationeffortsTheproblemisthatthisisafinitegame,19727,551,198117,500,19867,156,20002,076,Source:API,HistoryofU.S.ExplorationActivity,Priceuncertainty“Tired”maturebasinsLackofcreativenewideaswherehavealltheprospectorsgone?,Whyareexplorationeffortssoanemic?,Quarterlyfinancial“street”expectationsPerceptionthatdomesticprojectscantcompetewithglobalopportunities,Whyareexplorationeffortssoanemic?,Lackofconsistentcorporatecommitmentorfortitude,Whyareexplorationeffortssoanemic?,Wemustexploreforthegoodofourcountryandthesurvivalofourindustry,WANTED:ANewSupplyof“SilverBullets”,IP/EURLogs!Pipeset“dryholes”aretremendouswasteofcapitalCostEffective(Cheap)Onshore3DSeismicAcquisition!Need“offshore-like”coverageinallofourbasins,Needed:New“SilverBullets”,BOPsTh