营运资本和设备贷款的信用风险

CreditRisksinWorkingCapitalandEquipmentLoans营运资本和设备贷款的信用风险,AlexandruCebotari,WorkingCapitalWhyIsItSoImportant营运资本：为何这么重要？,Thefinancialelementofriskisdefinedastheinabilityofcashgenerationto:风险的财务元素被定义为现金流量不能达到以下情况：Maintainworkingcapital维持运营资本Maintainproductiveassets维持经营性资产Meetdebtserviceinschedule不能定期还本付息Payreasonabledividends支付合理股息Maintainsomeborrowingpower维持一定的借款能力Cashgenerationisdefinedasprofitsplusdepreciation.Isittrue?现金流量被定义为利润加上折旧，正确吗？Operatingexpensesonthenetincomestatementincludedepreciationexpense,whichdoesnotrequireacashoutlay净损益表上的运营开支包括折旧开支（不需要现金支出）Decreaseincurrentassets,otherthencash,havepositiveeffectsoncashflows,andincreasesincurrentassetshaveanegativeeffect.流动资产而非现金的减少对于现金流有积极的影响，而流动资产的增加则带来消极的影响Anincreaseinthecurrentliabilitieshasapositiveeffect,andadecreaseincurrentliabilitieshasanegativeeffect.流动负债的增加有积极的影响，反之则有消极影响,EvaluatingHistoricalPerformance评价过往表现,IncomeStatement损益表,Profitability?盈利能力,ReturnonEquity?净资产收益率,Non-CurrentAssets非流动资产,SourcesandUsesofFunds资金的来源和使用,Long-TermDebt长期债务,Equity股权,ChangeinW/C,CurrentAssets流动资产,CurrentLiabilities流动负债,VolumeLiquidityNeeds,Servicing还本付息,Servicing还本付息,CurrentCreditorCommit-Ments流动债权人承担费,Deficiency?不足,Reserve?准备金,Long-TermCreditorCommit-Ments长期债权人的承担费,Deficiency?不足,Reserve?准备金,EvaluatingBusinessPlans评价商业计划,Manage-mentAbility管理能力,FundsAdequacy资金充足,Environ-mentalCoditions环境情况,OperatingPractices操作规范,RoleofWorkingCapital营运资本的角色,CurrentAssets流动资产,CurrentLiabilities流动负债,Short-TermCreditorsCommitments短期债权人承担费,W/C,Non-CurrentAssets非流动资产,Long-TermDebt长期负债,Equity股权,Long-TermCreditorsCommitments长期债权人承担费,W/C,AssetConversionCycle资产转换周期,TheAssetConversionCyclerepresentsthenumberofdaysittakesacompanytopurchaserawmaterials,convertthemintofinishedgoods,sellthefinishedproducttoacustomerandreceivepaymentfortheproduct资产转换周期指一个公司采购原材料，转换为成品，出售给客户并收到付款的时间,库存在库天数,应收账款周转天数,应付账款周转天数,现金周转周期,TheACChasthreecomponents:资产转换周期有三个部分：DaysReceivablesOutstanding应收帐款收款天数Measurestheaveragenumberofdaysfromthesaleofgoodstothecollectionofreceivables衡量从货物的出售到回收应收账款的平均天数(AverageAccountsReceivables/Sales)*365days（平均应收账款/销售）*365天DaysInventoryHeld库存持有天数Measurestheaveragelengthoftimebetweenacquisitionandsaleofmerchandise衡量从获得商品到出售商品之间的平均时间长度(AverageInventories/CostofGoodsSold)*365（平均库存/出售货物的成本）*365DaysAccountsPayableOutstanding应付账款付款天数Measurestheaveragelengthoftimebetweenthepurchaseofgoodsandpaymentforthem衡量从购买商品到支付款项之间的平均时间长度(AverageAccountsPayable/Purchases)*365,where（平均应付账款/采购）*365在这里，Purchases=CostofGoodsSold+EndingInventoryBeginningInventory采购=出售商品的成本+期末存货-期初存货,CashCycleIllustration现今周期说明,CashFlowQuality现金流质量,ServicingCurrentLiabilities流动负债处理,Salesvolume,therateofturnoverofcurrentassets,workingcapitalandcurrentcreditorstermsarefactorsthatdeterminehowafirmservicescurrentdebts销售量、流动资产周转率、营运资本和当前的贷款人条款等因素决定一个公司如何处理流动负债Assumethatsalesdouble,thefirmoperateswithpositiveworkingcapitalpositionandthecommitmentsfromcurrentcreditorsdonotincrease.Whatscenariodoyouforesee?假定销售增加一倍，公司的营运资本为正，而目前的债权人提供的贷款额度没有增加，你能预见什么情景？Whatdoeshappeniftherateotturnoverofcurrentassetsslowstohalfitsformerrate?如果流动资产周转率降至原先的一半，会发生什么状况？Whatdoeshappenifthefirmoperateswithadeficitworkingcapitalrequirement?如果公司在营运资本为赤字的条件下运营，会发生什么状况？,Overtrading?过量交易？,Therearefourelementsofriskassociatedwithovertrading:与过量交易相关的风险体现在4个方面：Seriousdepletionofprofit;利润严重损耗Organizationfailureassociatedwithhighvolume;由于过量交易导致公司破产Receivableslosses;and应收帐款损失Inventoryrisks存货风险Ruleofthumb:currentassetsshouldcovertotaldebtattheseasonallow经验法则：流动资产应包括季度最低峰时的总负债,SustainableGrowth可持续增长,Ifarapidlygrowingcompanycanmaintainaprudentbalancebetweendebtandequitysources,therelianceonexternalcapitalcreatesnoproblems如果一个快速成长的公司能维持债务与股本来源之间的平衡，对外部资本的依赖不会带来任何问题Intoomanyinstances,rapidsalesgrowth,coupledwithmodestprofitmarginsandaninabilitytosellnewequity,forcesthecompanytorelyincreasinglyonbankcredit很多情况下，快速的销售收入增长，加上过低的利润率以及无力销售新股权，会迫使公司越来越依赖银行信贷Rapidgrowthmayleadtoincreasingdebtratiosandincreasingbankerheadaches快速的增长可能会导致负债率增加，让银行家越来越头痛Twoquestionstobeansweredtowhencontemplatingaloantoarapidlyexpandingfirm:在考虑是否要给一个快速扩张的公司贷款时，须回答以下两个问题：Istheapplicantinbalance?Giventhecompanysgrowthtargetsandfinancialpolicies,willthecompanybeabletomaintainastabledebtratioovertime?申请公司是否能保持各方面的平衡？鉴于公司的增长目标和财务政策，公司能否一直维持一个稳定的负债率？Whencanthebankexpectrepaymentoftheloan?Istherequestedamountsufficientoristhecontemplatedloanlikelytobejustthedownpaymentonamuchlargercommitment?银行何时才能期望贷款被偿还？申请的贷款金额足够吗？或者它只是很大一笔贷款数额中的首期付款？,SustainableGrowthRate(1)可持续增长率(1),Sustainablegrowthratetheannualpercentageinvcreaseinsaleswhichisconsistentwithastablecapitalstructure可持续增长率-销售增长的年百分比，和一个稳定的资本结构一致,SustainableGrowth可持续增长,TargetDebtRatio目标债务比率,TargetPayoutRatio目标派息比率,ProfitMargin利润率,Capital-OutputRatio资本产出比,SustainableGrowthRate(2)可持续增长率(2),p=profitmarginonsalesP=销售利润率d=thetargetdividendpayoutratio=(1-d)isthetargetretentionratiod=目标派息比率=(1-d)为目标自留额比率L=thetargetdebt-to-equityratioL=目标负债股本比t=thecapital-outputratiodefinedastotalassetsdividedbynetsalest=资本产出比，销售净值/总资产s=salesatthebeginningoftheperiods=期初的销售收入s=theincreaseinsalesduringtheyears=年中销售收入增加值,Assetsatthebeginningofyear年初资产,Newassetsneededtosupportincreasedsales用于支撑销售的新资产,LiabilitiesandownersEquityatbeginningofyear年初负债与所有者权益,Additionstoliabilities负债增加值,AdditionstoRetainedEarnings留存收益增加值,s(t),p(s+s)(1-d)L,p(s+s)(1-d),Example:SustainableGrowthRateinLoanAppraisal举例：贷款评估中的可持续增长率,PresidentofRadarcontactstheloanofficeratthebanktosecureatermloanof$500,000Radar公司总裁亲自联系银行信贷员确保能获得50万美元的定期贷款Radarstargetsalesgrowthrateis20%peryearRadar的目标销售增长率为每年20%Loanofficerfearsthatthecompanysdebtratiowillrisesteadilyinfutureyearsandcouldjeopardizethebanksposition信贷员担心未来几年公司的负债率会稳固上升，会影响银行的地位,p=.06,L=1.20,t=1.20d=.10,Short-termlending:Whatdoesshort-termmean?短期贷款：短期是什么意思？,Undershort-termlending,thelendercangetpaidintheordinarycourseofeventsintheshort-term(suchaswithinayear)在短期贷款条件下，贷款人能按照事项的常规进程在短期内得到偿付（如一年之内）Thelenderisrequiredtohaveaclearunderstandingoftheworkingcapitaladequacyifpermanentworkingcapitalisinadequate,slowpaymentofcontinuousrefinancingbeyondayearshouldbeanticipated贷款人需要对营运资本充足率有明确的认识如果永久性营运资本不够，应该持续性地再融资一年以上Theelementsofappropriateshort-termlendinginclude:适当的短期贷款的要素包括：Understandingthespecificpurpose明白具体目的Structuringthematurityinlinewiththeprimarysourceofrepayment根据偿还的主要来源设计期限的结构Identifyingthecertaintyofsecondarysourcesofrepaymentimplicitinthepurpose确认目标中已明确的偿还的次要来源Evaluatingalternativeprotectionavailablefromthebalancesheet;andpossibly评估资产负债表上存在的其他保护手段Ensuringaccesstosecondaryprotectionbytakingsecurity通过采取安全措施，确保能够获得次级保护,Characteristicsofworkingcapitalloans营运资本贷款的特征,SeasonalversusPermanentWorkingCapitalNeeds运营资本的季节性需求与永久性需求比较Allfirmsneedsomeminimumlevelofcurrentassetsandcurrentliabilities所有公司都需要最低限度的流动资产和流动负债Theamountofcurrentassetsandcurrentliabilitieswillvarywithseasonalpatterns流动资产与流动负债的量因季节形态而异PermanentWorkingCapital永久性营运资本Theminimumlevelofcurrentassetsminustheminimumlevelofadjustedcurrentliabilities最低限度的流动资产-最低限度的调整过的流动负债AdjustedCurrentLiabilities调整后的流动负债Currentliabilitiesnetofshort-termbankcreditandcurrentmaturitiesoflong-termdebt短期银行信贷的流动负债净额和长期债务的一年内到期SeasonalWorkingCapital季节性营运资本Differenceintotalcurrentassetsandadjustedcurrentliabilities总流动资产与调整后的流动负债的差异,Dollars美元,Short-TermCommercialLoans(1),OpenCreditLines无固定期限信贷Loanisseasonaliftheneedarisesonaregularbasisandifthecyclecompletesitselfwithoneyear如果需求是固定的，并且循环在一年内完成的话，贷款是季节性的Usedtopurchaserawmaterialsandbuildupinventoriesoffinishedgoodsinanticipationoflatersales用于采购原材料，累计成品的库存以在日后出售Itisself-liquidatinginthesensethatrepaymentderivesfromthesaleoffinishedgoodsthatarefinanced由于偿还来自于通过出售融资而得的成品，从这个意义上说是自偿的。,Short-TermCommercialLoans(2)短期商业贷款,OpenCreditLines无固定期限信贷Thebankmakesacertainamountoffundsavailabletoaborrowerforasetperiodoftime银行在固定期限内贷给借款人一定数量的贷款Oftenusedforseasonalloans通常用在季节性贷款Thecustomerdeterminesthetimingoftheactualborrowings(“takedowns”)客户决定实际借款的时机Borrowingsincreasewithinventorybuildupanddeclinewiththecollectionofreceivables借款随着库存增加而增加，随着应收账款的收取而下降,Short-TermCommercialLoans(3)短期商业贷款,OpenCreditLines无固定期限信贷Typicallyrequirethattheloanbefullyrepaidatleastonceduringeachyeartoconfirmthattheneedsareseasonal通常贷款需要在每年至少完全偿还一次来证明需求的季节性CommitmentFee承担费Afee,inadditiontointerest,formakingcreditavailable在利息之外，为了得到信贷的一笔费用Maybebasedontheentirecreditlineorontheunborrowedbalance可能基于全部信用额度或者基于非借入余额,Short-TermCommercialLoans(4)短期商业贷款,Asset-BasedLoans资产支持贷款LoansSecuredbyInventories由库存担保的贷款Thesecurityconsistsofrawmaterials,goodsinprocess,andfinishedproducts.证券包含原材料，正在加工的货物和成品Thevalueoftheinventorydependsonthemarketabilityofeachcomponentiftheborrowergoesoutofbusiness库存的价值取决于如果借款人破产，每种部件在市场上的销路.Bankswilllendfrom40to60percentagainstrawmaterialsthatarecommonamongbusinessesandfinishedgoodsthataremarketable,andnothingagainstunfinishedinventory银行的贷款相当于常见原材料和有销路的成品价值的40%-60%，不会针对未完成的库存贷款,Short-TermCommercialLoans(5)短期商业贷款,Asset-BasedLoans资产支持贷款LoansSecuredbyAccountsReceivable由应收账款担保的贷款Thesecurityconsistsofpaperassetsthatpresumablyrepresentsales证券包含假定可以代表销售的纸资产Thequalityofthecollateraldependsontheborrowersintegrityinreportingactualsalesandthecredibilityofbillings抵押品的质量取决于借款人在申报实际销售时的诚实以及账单的可信度,Short-TermCommercialLoans(6)短期商业贷款,Asset-BasedLoans资产支持贷款LoansSecuredbyAccountsReceivable由应收账款担保的贷款AccountsReceivableAgingSchedule应收账款账龄分析表ListofA/Rsgroupedaccordingtothemonthinwhichtheinvoiceisdated根据发票上的纪录的月份，将应收账款的清单分组Lockbox,锁箱功能CustomersmailpaymentsgodirectlytoaP.O.Boxcontrolledbythebank客户的邮件还款直接到达由银行控制的邮箱Thebankprocessesthepaymentsandreducestheborrowersbalancebutchargestheborrowerforhandlingtheitems银行处理还款，减少借款人余额，但是向其收取处理项目的费用,Short-TermCommercialLoans(7)短期商业贷款,RevolvingCredits循环信用Ahybridofshort-termworkingcapitalloansandtermloans一种短期运营资本贷款和定期贷款的混合Typicallyinvolvesthecommitmentoffundsfor15years通常包括1到5年的资金的承担费Attheendofsomeinterimperiod,theoutstandingprincipalconvertstoatermloan在某些过度期结尾的时候，未清偿的本金转为定期贷款Duringtheinterimperiod,theborrowerdetermineshowmuchcredittouse在某些过度期结尾的时候，借款人决定使用多少信贷Mandatoryprincipalpaymentsbeginoncetherevolverisconvertedtoatermloan一旦循环信贷转为定期贷款时，强制性本金偿付开始,衿鮨敷樵潓帍銇吗柈燕琥泃噓択谌窷蚀炝蓂躅斦韜莯躻艶伪同筽箋雷逢瓪蒇弃峗萼牧噀叻祝璀湈梣耣魉凹洢荩玗鏑宼饽乸溕戡逎懱挐帊腧俐猲挩褮夜孹悘趋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