CH07FISCALPOLICY打印稿

CH07FISCALPOLICY,Referstochangesingovernmentexpendituresand/ortaxestoachieveparticulareconomicgoals,suchaslowunemployment,pricestability,andeconomicgrowth.Governmentexpendituresisthesumofgovernmentpurchasesandtransferpayments.,FISCALPOLICY,FISCALPOLICY,Fiscalpolicyinfluencessaving,investment,andgrowthinthelongrun.Intheshortrun,fiscalpolicyprimarilyaffectstheaggregatedemand.Whenpolicymakerschangethemoneysupplyortaxes,theeffectonaggregatedemandisindirectthroughthespendingdecisionsoffirmsorhouseholds.Whenthegovernmentaltersitsownpurchasesofgoodsorservices,itshiftstheaggregate-demandcurvedirectly.,ChangesinGovernmentPurchases,Therearetwomacroeconomiceffectsfromthechangeingovernmentpurchases:ThemultipliereffectThecrowding-outeffect,TheMultiplierEffect,Governmentpurchasesaresaidtohaveamultipliereffectonaggregatedemand.Eachdollarspentbythegovernmentcanraisetheaggregatedemandforgoodsandservicesbymorethanadollar.Themultipliereffectreferstotheadditionalshiftsinaggregatedemandthatresultwhenexpansionaryfiscalpolicyincreasesincomeandtherebyincreasesconsumerspending.,TheMultiplierEffect,Quantityof,Output,Price,Level,0,Copyright2004South-Western,AFormulafortheSpendingMultiplier,Theformulaforthemultiplieris:Multiplier=1/(1-MPC)IftheMPCis3/4,thenthemultiplierwillbe:Multiplier=1/(1-3/4)=4Inthiscase,a$20billionincreaseingovernmentspendinggenerates$80billionofincreaseddemandforgoodsandservices.,TheCrowding-OutEffect,Fiscalpolicymaynotaffecttheeconomyasstronglyaspredictedbythemultiplier.Anincreaseingovernmentpurchasescausestheinterestratetorise.Ahigherinterestratereducesinvestmentspending.Thisreductionindemandthatresultswhenafiscalexpansionraisestheinterestrateiscalledthecrowding-outeffect.Thecrowding-outeffecttendstodampentheeffectsoffiscalpolicyonaggregatedemand.,TheCrowding-OutEffect,Quantity,ofMoney,Quantityfixed,bytheFed,0,Interest,Rate,Moneydemand,MD,Money,supply,(a)TheMoneyMarket,Quantity,ofOutput,0,Price,Level,Aggregatedemand,AD1,(b)TheShiftinAggregateDemand,Copyright2004South-Western,ChangesinTaxes,Whenthegovernmentcutspersonalincometaxes,itincreaseshouseholdstake-homepay.Householdssavesomeofthisadditionalincome.Householdsalsospendsomeofitonconsumergoods.Increasedhouseholdspendingshiftstheaggregate-demandcurvetotheright.,AutomaticStabilizers,Automaticstabilizersarechangesinfiscalpolicythatstimulateaggregatedemandwhentheeconomygoesintoarecessionwithoutpolicymakershavingtotakeanydeliberateaction.Automaticstabilizersincludethetaxsystemandsomeformsofgovernmentspending.Examples:incometaxunemploymentinsurancewelfare,DiscretionaryFiscalPolicy,DiscretionaryFiscalPolicyisdeliberatechangesofgovernmentexpendituresand/ortaxestoachieveparticulareconomicgoals.AutomaticFiscalPolicyischangesingovernmentexpendituresand/ortaxesthatoccurautomaticallywithout(additional)congressionalaction.,DiscretionaryFiscalPolicy,Expansionaryfiscalpolicyreferstoincreasesingovernmentexpendituresand/ordecreasesintaxestoachievemacroeconomicgoals.Contractionaryfiscalpolicyattemptstodecreasegovernmentexpendituresand/orincreasesintaxestoachievemacroeconomicgoals.,FiscalPolicyandFullEmployment,P1,Y1,P,RealGDP,Duringarecession,thegovernmentcanstimulatetheeconomybyincreasinggovernmentspendingordecreasingtaxes.,AD1,AD2,Yp,LRAS,SRAS,P2,FiscalPolicyandPriceStability,P2,Yp,P,RealGDP,Duringaninflationaryperiod,thegovernmentcancontracttheeconomybydecreasinggovernmentspendingorincreasingtaxes.,AD2,AD1,Y1,LRAS,SRAS,P1,TwoKeyAssumptions,Inourdiscussionoffiscalpolicy,weonlydealwithdiscretionaryfiscalpolicy.Weassumethatanychangeingovernmentspendingisduetoachangeingovernmentpurchasesandnottoachangeintransferpayments.,Demand-SideFiscalPolicy,Achangeinconsumption,investment,governmentpurchases,ornetexportscanchangeaggregatedemandandthereforeshifttheADcurve.Achangeintaxescanaffectconsumptionorinvestmentorbothandthereforcanaffectaggregatedemand.,FactorsThatChangeAggregateDemand,FiscalPolicy:AKeynesianPerspective,KeynesianTheorytheamountofmoneytheycanearnbyworkingincreases.Intheanalysisofmarginaltaxratesandaggregatesupply,weimplicitlyassumethatintheaggregate,amarginaltaxratecutincreasesworkactivity.,ThePredictedEffectofaPermanentMarginalTaxRateCutonAggregateSupply,TheLafferCurve:TaxRatesandTaxReturns,Ifincometaxrateswerelowered,woulditincreaseordecreasetaxrevenue?Therearetwotaxratesatwhichzerotaxrevenueswillbecollected0and100%.Anincreaseintaxratescouldcausetaxrevenuestoincrease.Adecreaseintaxratescouldcausetaxrevenuestoincrease.Taxrevenues=(Taxbase)x(theaverageTaxrate),TheLafferCurve:TaxRatesandTaxReturns,TheLafferCurve:Implications,Weassumethatasthetaxrateisreduced,thetaxbaseexpands.Therationaleisthatindividualsworkmore,investmore,andenterintomoreexchanges,andshelterlessincomefromtaxesandlowertaxrates.Howmuchdoesthetaxbaseexpandfollowingthetaxratereduction?Taxrevenuesincreaseifataxreductionismadeinthedownwar