罗斯公司理财-Chap006课件

罗斯公司理财-Chap006,StockValuation,Chapter6,Copyright2011byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,McGraw-Hill/Irwin,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,ComprehendthatstockpricesdependonfuturedividendsanddividendgrowthComputestockpricesusingthedividendgrowthmodelUnderstandhowgrowthopportunitiesaffectstockvaluesAppreciatethePEratioKnowhowstockmarketswork,KeyConceptsandSkills,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,6.1ThePresentValueofCommonStocks6.2EstimatesofParametersintheDividendDiscountModel6.3GrowthOpportunities6.4Price-EarningsRatio6.5SomeFeaturesofCommonandPreferredStock6.6TheStockMarkets,ChapterOutline,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Thevalueofanyassetisthepresentvalueofitsexpectedfuturecashflows.Stockownershipproducescashflowsfrom:DividendsCapitalGainsValuationofDifferentTypesofStocksZeroGrowthConstantGrowthDifferentialGrowth,6.1ThePVofCommonStocks,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Assumethatdividendswillremainatthesamelevelforever,Case1:ZeroGrowth,Sincefuturecashflowsareconstant,thevalueofazerogrowthstockisthepresentvalueofaperpetuity:,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,SupposeBigDealCompanywillpayanannualdividendof$2.00percommonsharethatwillneverincreaseordecrease.Themarketrateofreturnis8.5%.WhatisthemaximumamountyoushouldbewillingpayforacommonshareofBigDealCorporation?FormulaforZeroGrowthModel:P=Div/RSolution:P=$2.00/.085P=$23.53,ZeroGrowthExample,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Case2:ConstantGrowth,Sincefuturecashflowsgrowataconstantrateforever,thevalueofaconstantgrowthstockisthepresentvalueofagrowingperpetuity:,Assumethatdividendswillgrowataconstantrate,g,forever,i.e.,.,.,.,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,SupposeBigD,Inc.,justpaidadividendof$.50.Itisexpectedtoincreaseitsdividendby2%peryear.Ifthemarketrequiresareturnof15%onassetsofthisrisklevel,howmuchshouldthestockbesellingfor?P0=.50(1+.02)/(.15-.02)=$3.92,ConstantGrowthExample,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,ItiscriticaltounderstandthatintheconstantgrowthmodelcalculationsarebasedonthenextdividendIfasituationonlyprovidesinformationonthelastdividenditmustbeincreasedbythegrowthratetoarriveatthenextdividendIfasituationprovidesthevalueofthenextdividend,thenthedatanecessaryforthecalculationisknownandneednotbederived.Ananalystmustdiscriminatewhethertheyhaveinformationaboutthenextorlastdividendandproceedwithcalculationaccordingly,AWordAboutDividendsintheConstantGrowthModel,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Assumethatdividendswillgrowatdifferentratesintheforeseeablefutureandthenwillgrowataconstantratethereafter.TovalueaDifferentialGrowthStock,weneedto:Estimatefuturedividendsintheforeseeablefuture.EstimatethefuturestockpricewhenthestockbecomesaConstantGrowthStock(case2).Computethetotalpresentvalueoftheestimatedfuturedividendsandfuturestockpriceattheappropriatediscountrate.,Case3:DifferentialGrowth,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Thisgraphdemonstratesthedividendproacompanywithdifferentialgrowth,Graphic:DifferentialDividendGrowth,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Case3:DifferentialGrowth,Assumethatdividendswillgrowatrateg1forNyearsandgrowatrateg2thereafter.,.,.,.,.,.,.,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Case3:DifferentialGrowth,Dividendswillgrowatrateg1forNyearsandgrowatrateg2thereafter,012,NN+1,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Case3:DifferentialGrowth,Wecanvaluethisasthesumof:aT-yearannuitygrowingatrateg1,plusthediscountedvalueofaperpetuitygrowingatrateg2thatstartsinyearT+1,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Case3:DifferentialGrowth,Consolidatinggives:,Or,wecan“cashflow”itout.,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Acommonstockjustpaidadividendof$2.Thedividendisexpectedtogrowat8%for3years,thenitwillgrowat4%inperpetuity.Whatisthestockworth?Thediscountrateis12%.,ADifferentialGrowthExample,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,WiththeFormula,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,WithCashFlows,01234,0123,Theconstantgrowthphasebeginninginyear4canbevaluedasagrowingperpetuityattime3.,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Thevalueofafirmdependsuponitsgrowthrate,g,anditsdiscountrate,R.Wheredoesgcomefrom?g=RetentionratioReturnonretainedearningsExample:Supposeacompanyhasaretentionratioof70%andearnsanROEof12%.WhatistheGrowthRate,g?g=.70X.12g=.084=8.4%,6.2EstimatesofParameters,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Thediscountratecanbebrokenintotwoparts.ThedividendyieldThegrowthrate(individends)AKA:CapitalGainsYieldInpractice,thereisagreatdealofestimationerrorinvolvedinselectingR.Casescallingforspecialskepticism:StocksnotpayingdividendsStockswithgexpectedtoequalorexceedR,WhereDoesRComeFrom?,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,StartwiththeDGM:NotethatD1/P0isthedividendyieldandgisthecapitalgainsyield.,UsingtheDGMtoFindR,RearrangeandsolveforR:,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,ImaginethataSolarCorp.slastdividendwas$.65pershare.Solarsdividendsaregrowingatarateof4%andthecurrentpricepershareis$11.25.WhatisthemarketRimplicitinSolarsprice?R=(D1/P0)+gR=(.65x1.04)/11.25+.04R=.10or10%,Example:UsingDGMtoFindR,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,DividendsmaynotbeafirmsonlycashpayoutRecentlymanyfirmshaverepurchasedshares,anotherformofpayoutUsingtheDividendGrowthModel,thepriceofasharewillbehigherifconsideringtotalpayoutratherthanjustdividends,TotalPayout,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Afirmforecastsincomeof$4.00pershareandwillpayout30%asdividends,30%assharerepurchaseandwillretaintherest.Itsgrowthrateis5%andrequiredreturnis10%.Whatisthepriceofashare?DividendGrowthModel:P0=(4.00X.30)/(.1-.05)=$24.00Noticethatthepriceisbasedondividend(30%ofearnings)growthonlyTotalPayoutModel:P0=(4.00X.60)/(.1-.05)=$48.00Noticethatthepriceisbasedontotalpayout(60%ofearnings=30%fordividendsand30%forsharerepurchase)growth,Example:TotalPayoutValuation,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,GrowthopportunitiesareopportunitiestoinvestinpositiveNPVprojects.Thevalueofafirmcanbeconceptualizedasthesumofthevalueofafirmthatpaysout100%ofitsearningsasdividendsplusthenetpresentvalueofthegrowthopportunities.,6.3GrowthOpportunities,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Twoconditionsmustexistifacompanyistogrow:Itmustnotpayoutallofitsearningsasdividends;and,ItmustinvestinprojectswithapositiveNPV,PrerequisitestoGrowth,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Whydontfirmswithnodividendshavestockpriceof$0?SuchfirmsbelievetheirearningsarebetterusedtopursuegrowthopportunitiesInvestorspayastockpricethatconformstotheirowncalculusoftheNPVGOoftheno-payoutfirmThedividendgrowthmodeldoesnotworkinvaluingthisfirmThedifferentialgrowthmodelcan,butevaluatingthetimingofchangesingrowthistricky,TheNo-PayoutFirm,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Manyanalystsfrequentlyrelateearningspersharetoprice.Theprice-earningsratioiscalculatedasthecurrentstockpricedividedbyannualEPS.TheWallStreetJournaluseslast4quartersearnings,6.4Price-EarningsRatio,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Generally,firmswithgrowthopportunitiescommandgreaterP/EthanthosewithnosuchprospectsAfirmsRalsoimpactstheP/Eratio.TheP/EratioandRareinverselyrelated.AfirmwithconservativeaccountingprincipleswillgenerallyhaveahigherP/Eratiothanonewithaggressivepolicies,FactorsImpactingtheP/ERatio,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Votingrights(Cumulativevs.Straight)ProxyvotingClassesofstockOtherrightsShareproportionallyindeclareddividendsShareproportionallyinremainingassetsduringliquidationPreemptiverightfirstshotatnewstockissuetomaintainproportionalownershipifdesired,6.5FeaturesofCommonStock,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,DividendsStateddividendmustbepaidbeforedividendscanbepaidtocommonstockholders.Dividendsarenotaliabilityofthefirm,andpreferreddividendscanbedeferredindefinitely.Mostpreferreddividendsarecumulativeanymissedpreferreddividendshavetobepaidbeforecommondividendscanbepaid.Preferredstockgenerallydoesnotcarryvotingrights.,FeaturesofPreferredStock,罗斯公司理财-Chap006,Dealersvs.BrokersNewYorkStockExchange(NYSE)Larg