冲突模拟模型中的决策建模PPT课件.ppt

2020/5/11,.,1,ModellingHumanDecision-MakinginSimulationModelsofConflict,JamesMoffat(SeniorFellow,Dstl,UK),.,2,Abstract,NEC:NetworkEnabledCapability(DigitisationoftheBattlespace)Core:anunderstandingofhowbetterinformationandabetterapproachtoCommandandControlleadtobothbetterdecisionsandimprovedexecutionoroperations.,.,3,abstract,Researchonthissubject:AconceptualunderstandingofandimprovedapproachestoC2QuantifiedOperationalAnalysis(OA)models,.,4,Maincontent,AnewapproachtotheRepresentationofC2,basedontheunderstandingfromComplexityTheory.DeliberateandRapidPlanningprocessesAnewgenerationofsimulationmodelsValidationofthemodelswithexperimentaldataAssesstheabilitytounderstandandmodelnetwork-centricapproachestoC2,.,5,introduction,Cybernetics:thescienceofcontrolandcommunicationintheanimalandinthemachine,variety,Thenumberofdifferentaccessiblestatesofasystem,AshbysLawofRequisiteVariety:thevarietyofthecontrollermustbalancethevarietyofthesystem,.,6,development,TheIndustrialAgeTheInformationAge,Needtoconstructarepresentationofthehumancommandanddecision-makingprocesswhichgivesrisetohighvariety,DeliberatePlanning,RapidPlanning,.,7,RPimparticular,whenthereareconflictinglocalandglobalvalueswithinthedecision-makingstructure,.,20,ValidationofRPusingsDg,Simplified:twolevelsofattributes.Firstsetofattributesmeasuresthelocaloutcomeofthemissionintermsofrelativelyimmediate,“close-to-home”considerations.Thesecondsetofattributesmeasureslonger-termandmoreglobalconcernsrelatedtomorestrategicconsiderations.,.,21,Theoreticalperspective,Thechoiceofcourseofactiondependsontheinterpretationofmissionordersandthesubjectivesituationassessment.Therelativeimportanceeachcommanderplacesonlocalandglobalobjectivesiscentraltoaconceptualunderstandingof“value”indecision-making.,.,22,Thepractice,Thedecision-makersutilityfunction,U(d,),hastocapturethetrade-offbetweenthedifferentgoalsbyassigningweights(1)=1(1),2(1)(1isasetofshapeparametersdescribinghisutilityfunction)Probabilitydistributionfunctionpj(j|d,2),.,23,War-fightingscenario,.,24,Peace-supportscenario,.,25,Thedecisionmodel,1(1),2(1),U1(d,1),U2(d,1)(1)=1(1),2(1)U(j|d),pj(j),.,26,ValidationofRPusingCBG,Informationwaspresentedtothecommanderusingcards,.,27,.,28,Movetostatej,Statisticalmodel:,.,29,.,30,.,31,assessment,ImplementationoftheRPandprocessandaspectsoftheDPprocessinthesemodels“