Chapter14IndustryAnalysis(投资分析与投资组合管理)

,LecturePresentationSoftwaretoaccompanyInvestmentAnalysisandPortfolioManagementSeventhEditionbyFrankK.Reilly&KeithC.Brown,Chapter14,Chapter14IndustryAnalysis,Questionstobeanswered:Isthereadifferencebetweenthereturnsforalternativeindustriesduringspecifictimeperiods?Whatistheimplicationoftheseresults?Isthereconsistencyinthereturnsforindividualindustriesovertime?Whatdotheseresultsimplyregardingindustryanalysis?,Chapter14IndustryAnalysis,Istheperformanceforfirmswithinanindustryconsistent?Whatistheimplicationoftheseresultsforindustryandcompanyanalysis?Isthereadifferenceinriskamongindustries?Whataretheimplicationsoftheseresultsforindustryanalysis?,Chapter14IndustryAnalysis,Whathappenstoriskforindividualindustriesovertime?Whatdoesthisimplyforindustryanalysis?Whataretwovariablesthatneedtobeestimatedwhetheryouusecashflowmodelsorrelativevaluationratios?,Chapter14IndustryAnalysis,Giventhepresentvalueofcashflowvaluationtechniques,howdoesananalystdeterminethevalueofanindustryusingtheDDMandassumingconstantgrowthortwostagegrowth?Howdoesananalystdeterminethevalueofanindustryusingthefreecashflowtoequity(FCFE)modelwithconstantgrowthortwostagegrowth?,Chapter14IndustryAnalysis,Whatarethestepsinvolvedinestimatingearningspershareforanindustry?Whatarethestagesintheindustriallifecycleandhowdoesthelifecyclestageaffectthesalesestimateforanindustry?Whatarethefivebasiccompetitiveforcesthatdeterminetheintensityofcompetitioninanindustryandthus,itsrateofreturnoncapital?,Chapter14IndustryAnalysis,Howdoestheestimatingprocedurefortheoperatingprofitdifferfortheaggregatemarketversusanindustry?Whatarethetwoalternativeproceduresforestimatinganindustryearningsmultiplier?,Chapter14IndustryAnalysis,Whatisinvolvedinamacroanalysisoftheindustryearningsmultiplier?Whatarethestepsinthemicroanalysisofanindustryearningsmultiplier?Afteryouestimateanindustryearningsmultiplier,howdoyoudetermineiftheindustrysmultiplierisrelativelyhighorlow?,Chapter14IndustryAnalysis,Howdoindustriesdifferintermsofwhatdictatestheirreturnonassets?Whataresomeoftheuniquefactorsthatmustbeconsideredinglobalindustryanalysis?,WhyDoIndustryAnalysis?,HelpfindprofitableinvestmentopportunitiesPartofthethree-step,top-downplanforvaluingindividualcompaniesandselectingstocksforaportfolio,WhatDoWeLearnFromIndustryAnalysis?,Isthereadifferencebetweenthereturnsforalternativeindustriesduringspecifictimeperiods?Willanindustrythatperformswellinoneperiodcontinuetoperformwellinthefuture?Thatis,canweusepastrelationshipsbetweenthemarketandanindividualindustrytopredictfuturetrendsfortheindustry?,WhatDoWeLearnFromIndustryAnalysis?,Dofirmswithinanindustryshowconsistentperformanceovertime?,WhatDoWeLearnFromIndustryAnalysis?,Dofirmswithinanindustryshowconsistentperformanceovertime?Isthereadifferenceintheriskforalternativeindustries?,WhatDoWeLearnFromIndustryAnalysis?,Dofirmswithinanindustryshowconsistentperformanceovertime?Isthereadifferenceintheriskforalternativeindustries?Doestheriskforindividualindustriesvaryordoesitremainrelativelyconstantovertime?,IndustryPerformance,WidedispersioninratesofreturnindifferentindustriesPerformancevariesfromyeartoyearCompanyperformancevarieswithinindustriesRisksvarywidelybyindustrybutarefairlystableovertime,TheBusinessCycleandIndustrySectors,EconomictrendscananddoaffectindustryperformanceByidentifyingandmonitoringkeyassumptionsandvariables,wecanmonitortheeconomyandgaugetheimplicationsofnewinformationonoureconomicoutlookandindustryanalysis,TheBusinessCycleandIndustrySectors,CyclicalorStructuralChangesCyclicalchangesintheeconomyarisefromtheupsanddownsofthebusinesscycleStructurechangesoccurwhentheeconomyundergoesamajorchangeinorganizationorhowitfunctionsRotationstrategyiswhenoneswitchesfromoneindustrygrouptoanotheroverthecourseofabusinesscycle,TheBusinessCycleandIndustrySectors,EconomicVariablesandDifferentIndustriesInflationInterestRatesInternationalEconomicsConsumerSentiment,TheStockMarketandtheBusinessCycle,Exhibit14.2,ECONOMIC,CYCLE,TheStockMarketandtheBusinessCycle,Exhibit14.2,ECONOMIC,CYCLE,trough,peak,TheStockMarketandtheBusinessCycle,Exhibit14.2,ECONOMIC,CYCLE,FinancialStocksExcel,trough,peak,ConsumerDurablesExcel,CapitalGoodsExcel,BasicIndustriesExcel,ConsumerStaplesExcel,StructuralEconomicChangesandAlternativeIndustries,SocialInfluencesDemographicsLifestylesTechnologyPoliticsandregulationsEconomicreasoningFairnessRegulatorychangesaffectnumerousindustriesRegulationsaffectinternationalcommerce,EvaluatingtheIndustryLifeCycle,FiveStageModelPioneeringdevelopmentRapidlyacceleratingindustrygrowthMatureindustrygrowthStabilizationandmarketmaturityDecelerationofgrowthanddecline,AnalysisofIndustryCompetition,CompetitionandExpectedIndustryReturnsPortersconceptofcompetitivestrategyisdescribedasthesearchbyafirmforafavorablecompetitivepositioninanindustryTocreateaprofitablecompetitivestrategy,afirmmustfirstexaminethebasiccompetitivestructureofitsindustryThepotentialprofitabilityofafirmisheavilyinfluencedbytheprofitabilityofitsindustry,CompetitiveStructureofanIndustry,PortersCompetitiveForcesRivalryamongexistingcompetitorsThreatofnewentrantsThreatofsubstituteproductsBargainingpowerofbuyersBargainingpowerofsuppliers,EstimatingIndustryRatesofReturn,PresentvalueusingrequiredrateofreturnfortheequityintheindustryTwo-stepP/EratioapproachusesexpectedvalueattheendofinvestmenthorizonandcomputetheexpecteddividendreturnduringtheperiodValuationusingthereducedformDDM,Pi=thepriceofindustryiattimetD1=theexpecteddividendforindustryiinperiod1equaltoD0(1+g)k=therequiredrateofreturnontheequityforindustryig=theexpectedlong-rungrowthrateofearningsanddividendforindustryi,EstimatingtheRequiredRateofReturn,Influencedbytherisk-freerateExpectedinflationrateRiskpremiumfortheindustryversusthemarketbusinessrisk(BR)financialrisk(FR)liquidityrisk(LR)exchangeraterisk(ERR)countrypoliticalrisk(CR)Orcomparesystematicrisk(beta)fortheindustrytothemarketbetaof1.0,EstimatingtheExpectedGrowthRate,EarningsanddividendgrowtharedeterminedbytheretentionrateandthereturnonequityEarningsretentionrateofindustrycomparedtotheoverallmarketReturnonequityisafunctionofthenetprofitmargintotalassetturnoverameasureoffinancialleverage,IndustryValuationUsingtheFreeCashFlowtoEquity(FCFE)Model,FCFEisdefinedasfollows:Netincome+Depreciation-Capitalexpenditures-Dinworkingcapital-Principaldebtrepayments+Newdebtissues,IndustryValuationUsingtheFreeCashFlowtoEquity(FCFE)Model,TheConstantGrowthFCFEModelTheTwo-StageGrowthFCFEModel,TheEarningsMultipleTechnique,EstimatingearningspersharestartwithforecastingsalespershareIndustriallifecycleInput-outputanalysisIndustry-aggregateeconomyrelationshipearningsforecastingandanalysisofindustrycompetitioncompetitivestrategycompetitiveenvironmentindustryoperatingprofitmarginindustryearningsestimateindustryearningsmultiplier,IndustryProfitMarginForecast,Industrysoperatingprofitmargin(EBITDA/Sales)Depreciationexpenseinterestexpensetaxrate,IndustryProfitMarginForecast,Industrysoperatingprofitmargin(EBITDA/Sales)RegressionanalysisTimeseriesanalysisLong-termconsiderationincludingcompetitivestructure,IndustryProfitMarginForecast,DepreciationexpenseGenerallyincreasingtimeseriesSpecificestimatetechniqueusingthedepreciationexpense/PPEratioSubtractdepreciationfromoperatingprofitmargintodetermineindustrysnetbeforeinterestandtaxes,IndustryProfitMarginForecast,Interestexpenseisafunctionoffinancialleverageandinterestrates1.Calculatetheannualtotalassetturnover(TATO)2.UseyourcurrentsalesestimateandanestimateofTATOtoestimatetotalassetsnextyear3.Calculatetheannuallong-term(interestbearing)debtasapercentoftotalassets,4.Estimatelong-termdebtforthenextyear,IndustryProfitMarginForecast,Interestexpense(cont.)5.Calculatetheannualinterestcostasapercentoflong-termdebtandanalyzethetrend6.Estimatenextyearsinterestcostofdebtforthisindustrybaseduponyourpriorestimateofmarketyields7.Estimateinterestexpensebasedonthefollowingestimates:(InterestCostofDebt)(OutstandingLong-TermDebt),IndustryProfitMarginForecast,TaxrateRegressionanalysisTimeseriesplotAfterestimatingthetaxrate,multiplytheEBTpersharevalueby(1-taxrate)toestimateearningspershareDeriveanestimateofindustrysnetprofitmarginasacheckonyourEPSestimate,EstimatinganIndustryEarningsMultiplier,Macroanalysisrelationshipbetweenmultiplierfortheindustryandthemarketvariablesthatinfluencethemultiplier:requiredrateofreturn(k)functionofthenominalrisk-freerateplusariskpremiumexpectedgrowthrateofearningsanddividenddividendpayoutratio,EstimatinganIndustryEarningsMultiplier,Mic