财务管理课件.ppt

财务管理基础教案,刘德英,RossWesterfieldJordan,ThirdEdition,Chapter,1,公司理财入门IntroductiontoFinancialManagement,主要概念和技能KeyConceptsandSkills,知道财务管理决策的基本类型和财务经理的作用Knowthebasictypesoffinancialmanagementdecisionsandtheroleofthefinancialmanager知道财务管理的目标Knowthegoaloffinancialmanagement知道不同企业组织形式财务含义Knowthefinancialimplicationsofthedifferentformsofbusinessorganization理解所有者和经营者间利益冲突Understandtheconflictsofinterestthatcanarisebetweenownersandmanagers,本章主要内容ChapterOutline,公司理财：快速浏览Finance:AQuickLook公司理财与财务经理BusinessFinanceandTheFinancialManager公司组织形式FormsofBusinessOrganization财务管理的目标TheGoalofFinancialManagement代理问题和公司控制TheAgencyProblemandControloftheCorporation金融市场和公司FinancialMarketsandtheCorporation,财务管理基本领域BasicAreasOfFinance,公司理财Corporatefinance投资Investments金融机构Financialinstitutions国际财务管理Internationalfinance,投资Investments,与金融资产打交道，如股票和债券Workwithfinancialassetssuchasstocksandbonds金融资产价值，风险与收益及资产配置Valueoffinancialassets,riskversusreturnandassetallocation工作机会Jobopportunities证券经纪人或财务顾问Stockbrokerorfinancialadvisor基金经理Portfoliomanager证券分析师Securityanalyst,金融机构FinancialInstitutions,专门处理金融事务的公司Companiesthatspecializeinfinancialmatters银行Bankscommercialandinvestment,creditunions,savingsandloans保险公司Insurancecompanies经纪公司Brokeragefirms工作机会Jobopportunities,国际财务管理InternationalFinance,ThisisanareaofspecializationamongalloftheareasdiscussedsofarItmayallowyoutoworkinothercountriesoratleasttravelonaregularbasisNeedtobefamiliarwithexchangeratesandpoliticalriskNeedtounderstandthecustomsofothercountriesandspeakingaforeignlanguagefluentlyisalsohelpful,WhyStudyFinance?,市场营销MarketingBudgets,marketingresearch,marketingfinancialproducts会计AccountingDualaccountingandfinancefunction,preparationoffinancialstatements管理ManagementStrategicthinking,jobperformanceandprofitability人事PersonalfinanceBudgeting,retirementplanning,collegeplanning,day-to-daycashflowissues,公司理财BusinessFinance,财务中必须回答的一些重要问题Someimportantquestionsthatareansweredusingfinance公司要从事什么样的长期投资？Whatlong-terminvestmentsshouldthefirmtakeon?投资所需资金从哪里得到？Wherewillwegetthelong-termfinancingtopayfortheinvestment?如何进行公司日常财务活动管理？Howwillwemanagetheeverydayfinancialactivitiesofthefirm?,财务主管FinancialManager,财务主管应该努力解决如下这些问题：Financialmanagerstrytoanswersomeorallofthesequestions公司里财务经理的最高职位通常称为财务总监（CFO）ThetopfinancialmanagerwithinafirmisusuallytheChiefFinancialOfficer(CFO)财务长现金管理/信用管理/资本支出和财务预测Treasureroverseescashmanagement,creditmanagement,capitalexpendituresandfinancialplanning会计长税/成本会计/财务会计/数据处理Controlleroverseestaxes,costaccounting,financialaccountinganddataprocessing,财务管理决策FinancialManagementDecisions,资本预算CapitalbudgetingWhatlong-terminvestmentsorprojectsshouldthebusinesstakeon?资本结构CapitalstructureHowshouldwepayforourassets?Shouldweusedebtorequity?营运资本管理WorkingcapitalmanagementHowdowemanagetheday-to-dayfinancesofthefirm?,FormsofBusinessOrganization,有三种主要的组织形式Threemajorformsintheunitedstates独资Soleproprietorship合伙Partnership一般合伙General有限合伙Limited公司CorporationS公司S-Corp有限责任公司Limitedliabilitycompany,独资企业SoleProprietorship,优点Advantages容易成立Easiesttostart法规限制小Leastregulated业主拥有利润Singleownerkeepsalltheprofits按个人所得税纳税Taxedonceaspersonalincome,缺点Disadvantages受业主生命长短限制Limitedtolifeofowner权益资本受制于业主的个人财富Equitycapitallimitedtoownerspersonalwealth无限责任Unlimitedliability所有者权益转让困难Difficulttosellownershipinterest,合伙企业Partnership,优点Advantages两个及以上所有者Twoormoreowners可以获得更多资本Morecapitalavailable相对容易成立Relativelyeasytostart按个人所得税纳税Incometaxedonceaspersonalincome,缺点Disadvantages无限责任Unlimitedliability一般合伙Generalpartnership有限合伙Limitedpartnership一个合伙人死亡合伙即解散Partnershipdissolveswhenonepartnerdiesorwishestosell所有者权益转让困难Difficulttotransferownership,公司Corporation,优点Advantages有限责任Limitedliability无限生命Unlimitedlife所有权和经营权的分离Separationofownershipandmanagement股权容易转让Transferofownershipiseasy容易筹集资本Easiertoraisecapital,缺点Disadvantages所有权与经营权分离Separationofownershipandmanagement双重课税（按公司所得税税率征税和股利按个人所得税税率征税）Doubletaxation(incometaxedatthecorporaterateandthendividendstaxedatpersonalrate),财务经理目标GoalOfFinancialManagement,公司目标应该是什么？Whatshouldbethegoalofacorporation?利润最大化？Maximizeprofit?成本最小化？Minimizecosts?市场份额最大？Maximizemarketshare?公司当前股票价值最大化？Maximizethecurrentvalueofthecompanysstock?这是否意味着我们应该做些什么以使股东财富最大化？Doesthismeanweshoulddoanythingandeverythingtomaximizeownerwealth?,代理问题TheAgencyProblem,代理关系Agencyrelationship委托人雇佣代理人代表其利益Principalhiresanagenttorepresenttheirinterest股东（委托人）雇佣管理者（代理人）经营公司Stockholders(principals)hiremanagers(agents)torunthecompany代理问题Agencyproblem委托人与代理人间利益冲突Conflictofinterestbetweenprincipalandagent管理目标和代理成本Managementgoalsandagencycosts,对管理者的管理ManagingManagers,管理性薪酬Managerialcompensation激励可用来使管理者与股东利益保持一致Incentivescanbeusedtoalignmanagementandstockholderinterests为了达到目标，需要认真设计激励条件Theincentivesneedtobestructuredcarefullytomakesurethattheyachievetheirgoal公司控制Corporatecontrol兼并收购威胁可以促进管理者好好经营Thethreatofatakeovermayresultinbettermanagement其他利益相关者Otherstakeholders,金融市场FinancialMarkets,流向公司的现金流量Cashflowstothefirm一级市场和二级市场Primaryvs.secondarymarkets交易商市场和拍卖市场Dealervs.auctionmarkets交易所和柜台证券Listedvs.overthecountersecuritiesNYSENASDAQ,QuickQuiz,Whatarethefourbasicareasoffinance?Whatarethethreetypesoffinancialmanagementdecisionsandwhatquestionsaretheydesignedtoanswer?Whatarethethreemajorformsofbusinessorganization?Whatisthegoaloffinancialmanagement?Whatareagencyproblemsandwhydotheyexistwithinacorporation?,公司理财的四个基本领域是什么？三种类型财务管理决策是什么，需要回答哪三个问题？公司三种主要的组织形式是什么？公司财务经理的目标是什么？什么是代理问题，为什么会存在于公司？一级市场和二级市场有什么区别？,Chapter02,财务报表、税和现金流量,GettingStarted!财务之旅,Enjoyyourself!,主要概念和技能,了解账面价值与市场价值的区别Knowthedifferencebetweenbookvalueandmarketvalue了解会计利润与现金流量的区别Knowthedifferencebetweenaccountingincomeandcashflow了解平均税率与边际税率Knowthedifferencebetweenaverageandmarginaltaxrates了解如何通过其财务报表确定公司的现金流量Knowhowtodetermineafirmscashflowfromitsfinancialstatements,本章大纲,资产负债表TheBalanceSheet利润表TheIncomeStatement税Taxes现金流量CashFlow,资产负债表,资产负债表是一张公司某一特定时间点资产和负债状况“快照”的报表Thebalancesheetisasnapshotofthefirmsassetsandliabilitiesatagivenpointintime资产按流动性大小顺序列示Assetsarelistedinorderofliquidity容易转化为现金Easeofconversiontocash没有太大的价值损失Withoutsignificantlossofvalue资产负债表的恒等式BalanceSheetIdentity资产负债+股东权益Assets=Liabilities+StockholdersEquity,公司资产负债表模型,流动资产,流动负债,公司应投资什么行业？,资本预算决策(投资决策),公司资产负债表模型,固定资产1有形资产2无形资产,长期负债,股东权益,公司如何为所需要的投资融资？,资本结构决策(融资决策),流动资产,固定资产1有形资产2无形资产,股东权益,流动负债,长期负债,公司资产负债表模型,公司需要多少短期现金流量付账?,净营运资本投资决策(融资决策,净营运资本,股东权益,流动负债,长期负债,流动资产,固定资产1有形资产2无形资产,公司资产负债表模型,净营运资本与流动性,净营运资本流动资产流动负债未来12个月收到的现金超过要付出的现金时为正值健康的公司这个值为正值流动性在没有明显损失的情况下能迅速转化为现金的可能性流动性好的公司陷入财务危机的可能性小但流动资产赚取的收益低在流动性资产和非流动性资产寻求平衡,2-35,负债和权益DebtversusEquity,债权人对公司现金流量具有要求权；股东对具有剩余要求权Creditorshavefirstclaimonafirmscashflow;equityholdershavearesidualclaim.财务杠杆是公司资本结构中对负债的利用Financialleverageistheuseofdebtinafirmscapitalstructure.财务杠杆可增加股东报酬，但会使公司陷入财务危机和经营失败的可能性增大Financialleverageincreasesthepotentialrewardtoshareholders,butalsoincreasesthepotentialforfinancialdistressandbusinessfailure.,市场价值与账面价值Marketvs.BookValue,资产负债表提供了资产、负债和权益的账面价值Thebalancesheetprovidesthebookvalueoftheassets,liabilitiesandequity.市场价值是资产、负债和权益实际可能购买或销售的价格Marketvalueisthepriceatwhichtheassets,liabilitiesorequitycanactuallybeboughtorsold.市场价值和账面价值通常会相差很大，为什么？Marketvalueandbookvalueareoftenverydifferent.Why?哪个对决策过程更重要？,利润表,利润表（损益表）如同一部“录象机”，总括地反映企业在一定期间内损益的实现情况！Theincomestatementismorelikeavideoofthefirmsoperationsforaspecifiedperiodoftime.通常先报告这段时间的收入，然后再减去同期的费用Yougenerallyreportrevenuesfirstandthendeductanyexpensesfortheperiod配比原则会计准则要求列示应计的收入及与之配比的费用MatchingprincipleGAAPsaytoshowrevenuewhenitaccruesandmatchtheexpensesrequiredtogeneratetherevenue,WorktheWebExample,PubliclytradedcompaniesmustfileregularreportswiththeSecuritiesandExchangeCommissionThesereportsareusuallyfiledelectronicallyandcanbesearchedattheSECpublicsitecalledEDGARClickonthewebsurfer,pickacompanyandseewhatyoucanfind!,所得税Taxes,税一直都在变Theonethingwecanrelyonwithtaxesisthattheyarealwayschanging边际税率与平均税率Marginalvs.averagetaxrates边际税率每增加一元钱需要支付的税率Marginalthepercentagepaidonthenextdollarearned平均税率支付的税/应纳税所得额Averagethetaxbill/taxableincome其他税Othertaxes,例：边际税率与平均税率,假设你的公司应纳税所得额为$400万Supposeyourfirmearns$4millionintaxableincome.公司应纳税额是多少？Whatisthefirmstaxliability?平均税率是多少？Whatistheaveragetaxrate?边际税率是多少？Whatisthemarginaltaxrate?如果你正在考虑一个能使公司应税收入增加$100万的项目，你在进行分析时应使用什么税率？,现金流量概念,现金流量是财务经理从财务报表中得到到最重要的信息Cashflowisoneofthemostimportantpiecesofinformationthatafinancialmanagercanderivefromfinancialstatements现金流量表并没有提供给我们所要的现金流量信息Thestatementofcashflowsdoesnotprovideuswiththesameinformationthatwearelookingathere我们想要的现金流量：利用资产产生的现金流量及如何用资产产生的现金流量去偿还购买这些资产所筹资金Wewilllookathowcashisgeneratedfromutilizingassetsandhowitispaidtothosethatfinancethepurchaseoftheassets,源自资产的现金流量CashFlowFromAssets,源自资产的现金流量（CFFA)支付给债权人的现金流量+支付给股东的现金流量源自资产的现金流量经营现金流量（OCF）净资本性支出（NCS）净经营资本变化额（NWC）,CashFlowFromAssets(CFFA)=CashFlowtoCreditors+CashFlowtoStockholdersCashFlowFromAssets=OperatingCashFlowNetCapitalSpendingChangesinNWC,例：美国公司第一部分,OCF（I/S)=EBIT+折旧所得税$547NCS（B/S和I/S)=期末固定资产净值期初固定资产净值+折旧$130NWC(B/S)期末NWC期初NWC$330CFFA=547-130-330=$87,美国公司第二部分,流向给债权人的现金流量支付利息新借款净值$24流向股东的现金流量支付的股利新权益融资的净值$63CFFA24+63$87,现金流量总结：表2.5,1、现金流量等式源自资产的现金流量（CFFA)支付给债权人的现金流量+支付给股东的现金流量2、源自资产的现金流量源自资产的现金流量经营现金流量（OCF）净资本性支出（NCS）净经营资本变化额（NWC）这里：OCF（I/S)=EBIT+折旧所得税NCS（B/S和I/S)=期末固定资产净值期初固定资产净值+折旧$130NWC(B/S)期末NWC期初NWC$3303、流向债权人的现金流量（债券持有人）支付给债权人的现金流量支付利息新借款净值4、流向股东的现金流量（所有者）支付给股东的现金流量支付的股利新权益融资的净值,2-48,财务状况(单位：百万),2-49,营业收入净额Netsales$710.00营业成本Costofgoodssold480.00折旧Depreciation30.00DEBIT$200.00利息Interest20.00应税收益Taxableincome180.00所得税Tax53.45净利润Netprofit$126.55股利Dividends26.55留存收益增加Additiontoretainedearnings$100.00,财务状况(单位：百万),2-50,资产现金流量CashFlowFromAssets,经营现金流量Operatingcashflow:EBIT$200.00+折旧Depreciation+30.00所得税Taxes53.45$176.55净营运资本变化Changeinnetworkingcapital:期末净营运资本$310.00期初净营运资本305.00$5.00资本净支出Netcapitalspending:期末固定资产净值$1,100.00期初固定资产净值985.00+折旧Depreciation+30.00$145.00源自资产的现金流量Cashflowfromassets:$26.55,2-51,债权人现金流量和股东现金流量,债权人现金流量Cashflowtodebtholders:Interestpaid$20.00Netnewborrowing20.00$0.00股东现金流量Cashflowtoshareholders:Dividendspaid$26.55Netnewequityraised0.00$26.55流向股东和债权人的现金流量Cashflowtodebtholdersandshareholders$26.55,例：现金流量表和利润表信息,流动性项目2004：CA3625；CL17872003：CA3596；CL2140固定资产和折旧2004：NFA2194；2003NFA=2261折旧费用500长期负债和权益2004：LTD538；普通股4622003：LTD538；普通股462利润表EBIT1014；所得税368；利息费用93；股利285,快速测试,账面价值与市场价值的区别是什么？我们在作决策时使用哪个？会计收益与现金流量有什么区别？在作决策时使用哪个？平均税率和边际税率有什么区别？在进行财务决策时我们使用哪个？怎样确定公司现金流量？恒等式是什么？我们从哪找到相关信息？,Chapter,3,与财务报表相关的工作WorkingWithFinancialStatements,KeyConceptsandSkills,了解如何使报表标准化以进行比较了解如何计算和解释重要的财务比率Knowhowtocomputeandinterpretimportantfinancialratios了解公司盈利性和成长性的决定因素Knowthedeterminantsofafirmsprofitabilityandgrowth理解财务报表分析存在的问题和陷阱Understandtheproblemsandpitfallsinfinancialstatementanalysis,ChapterOutline,标准财务报表StandardizedFinancialStatements比率分析RatioAnalysis杜邦方程TheDuPontIdentity内部和可持续增长InternalandSustainableGrowth使用财务报表信息UsingFinancialStatementInformation,标准化财务报表StandardizedFinancialStatements,共同比资产负债表Common-SizeBalanceSheets计算所有项目占资产合计的百分比Computeallaccountsasapercentoftotalassets共同比利润表Common-SizeIncomeStatements计算所有项目占营业收入的百分比Computealllineitemsasapercentofsales标准化报表使得财务信息的比较更容易，特别是在公司成长过程Standardizedstatementsmakeiteasiertocomparefinancialinformation,particularlyasthecompanygrows标准化报表对不同规模的公司比较更有用处，特别是同行业不同规模的公司Theyarealsousefulforcomparingcompaniesofdifferentsizes,particularlywithinthesameindustry,比率分析RatioAnalysis,比率分析用于不同时期或不同公司进行比较更好RatiosalsoallowforbettercomparisonthroughtimeorbetweencompaniesAswelookateachratio,askyourselfwhattheratioistryingtomeasureandwhyisthatinformationimportant比率分析即用公司内部分析也用于外部分析Ratiosareusedbothinternallyandexternally,比率类别CategoriesofFinancialRatios,短期偿债或流动性比率Short-termsolvencyorliquidityratios长期偿债或财务杠杆比率Long-termsolvencyorfinancialleverageratios资产管理或周转比率Assetmanagementorturnoverratios获利能力比率Profitabilityratios市值比率Marketvalueratios,资产负债表举例SampleBalanceSheet,数字单位：千元Numbersinthousands,利润表举例SampleIncomeStatement,Numbersinthousands,exceptEPSC01=51,780;F01=2;C02=71,780NPV;I=20;CPTNPV=10,648CPTIRR=25.8%我们是否应该接受该项目？Shouldweacceptorrejecttheproject?,NWC的进一步探讨MoreonNWC,为什么我们必须单独考虑NWC的变化？WhydowehavetoconsiderchangesinNWCseparately?GAAP要求销售发生而不是现金收到时进行记录GAAP还要求销售发生时同时记录销售成本，而不管我们是否向供应商付款最后，我们必须购买存货以支持销售，尽管还没有收到现金,折旧Depreciation,用于资本预算的折旧费用应该按IRS纳税目的编表hedepreciationexpenseusedforcapitalbudgetingshouldbethedepreciationschedulerequiredbytheIRSfortaxpurposes折旧是非现金费用，由于其纳税效应而相关Depreciationitselfisanon-cashexpense,consequently,itisonlyrelevantbecauseitaffectstaxes折旧税盾DT（Depreciationtaxshield=DT）D=depreciationexpense折旧T=marginaltaxrate边际税率,折旧计算ComputingDepreciation,直线折旧Straight-linedepreciation折旧=(原始成本殘值)/年数Veryfewassetsaredepreciatedstraight-linefortaxpurposesMACRS（修正的加速成本回收制度）需要知道资产类别Needtoknowwhichassetclassisappropriatefortaxpurposes原始成本乘以折旧率（表9.7）Multiplypercentagegivenintablebytheinitialcost折旧到0Depreciatetozero半年惯例Mid-yearconvention,After-taxSalvage,如果残值与资产账面价值不同，则存在纳税影响Ifthesalvagevalueisdifferentfromthebookvalueoftheasset,thenthereisataxeffect账面价值原始成本累计折旧Bookvalue=initialcostaccumulateddepreciation税后残值残值T（残值账面价值）After-taxsalvage=salvageT(salvagebookvalue),Example:DepreciationandAfter-taxSalvage,你花$100000购买了设备，运费和安装费花了$10000。6年后设备可卖$17000。公司的边际所得税率为40%。每年的折旧是多少？下列情况下6年后税后残值是多少？Youpurchaseequipmentfor$100,000anditcosts$10,000tohaveitdeliveredandinstalled.Basedonpastinformation,youbelievethatyoucanselltheequipmentfor$17,000whenyouaredonewithitin6years.Thecompanysmarginaltaxrateis40%.Whatisthedepreciationexpenseeachyearandtheafter-taxsalvageinyear6foreachofthefollowingsituations?,Example:Straight-lineDepreciation,假设按直线折旧Supposetheappropriatedepreciationscheduleisstraight-lineD=(110,00017,000)/6=15,500everyyearfor6yearsBVinyear6=110,0006(15,500)=17,000After-taxsalvage=17,000-.4(17,00017,000)=17,000,Example:Three-yearMACRS,BVinyear6=110,00036,66348,88416,3028,151=0,After-taxsalvage=17,000-.4(17,0000)=$10,200,Example:7-YearMACRS,BVinyear6=110,00015,71926,93919,23913,7399,8239,823=14,718,After-taxsalvage=17,000-.4(17,00014,718)=16,087.20,例：重置问题Example:ReplacementProblem,原设备OriginalMachineInitialcost=100,000Annualdepreciation=9000Purchased5yearsagoBookValue=55,000Salvagetoday=65,000Salvagein5years=10,000,新设备NewMachineInitialcost=150,0005-yearlifeSalvagein5years=0Costsavings=50,000peryear3-yearMACRSdepreciationRequiredreturn=10%Taxrate=40%,重置问题计算现金流量ReplacementProblemComputingCashFlows,记住我们只对增量现金流量感兴趣Rememberthatweareinterestedinincrementalcashflows如果我们购买新设备，就必须卖掉旧设备Ifwebuythenewmachine,thenwewillselltheoldmachine现在卖旧换新会有什么样的现金流量？Whatarethecashflowconsequencesofsellingtheoldmachinetodayinsteadofin5years?,重置问题预计利润表ReplacementProblemProFormaIncomeStatements,重置问题净资本支出增加ReplacementProblemIncrementalNetCapitalSpending,Year0Costofnewmachine=150,000(outflow)After-taxsalvageonoldmachine=65,000-.4(65,00055,000)=61,000(inflow)Incrementalnetcapitalspending=150,00061,000=89,000(outflow)Year5After-taxsalvageonoldmachine=10,000-.4(10,00010,000)=10,000(outflowbecausewenolongerreceivethis),重置问题源自资产的现金流量ReplacementProblemCashFlowFromAssets,重置问题分析现金流量ReplacementProblemAnalyzingtheCashFlows,根据现金流量，我们可以计算NPV和IRRNowthatwehavethecashflows,wecancomputetheNPVandIRREnterthecashflowsComputeNPV=54,812.10ComputeIRR=36.28%公司是否应该重置设备？Shouldthecompanyreplacetheequipment?,对NPV的估计值进行评价EvaluatingNPVEstimates,NPV估计值是个估计值TheNPVestimatesarejustthatestimates正的NPV是个好的开始现在我们需要进上步分析ApositiveNPVisagoodstartnowweneedtotakeacloserlook预测风险ForecastingriskhowsensitiveisourNPVtochangesinthecashflowestimates,themoresensitive,thegreatertheforecastingrisk价值源泉Sourcesofvaluewhydoesthisprojectcreatevalue?,情景分析ScenarioAnalysis,在不同现金流量情况下NPV是多少？WhathappenstotheNPVunderdifferentcashflowsscenarios?至少要看Attheveryleastlookat:最好情况Bestcaserevenuesarehighandcostsarelow最坏情况Worstcaserevenuesarelowandcostsarehigh基本估计两个极限间的中间值Measureoftherangeofpossibleoutcomes最好和最坏不一定发生，但存在可能Bestcaseandworstcasearenotnecessarilyprobable,theycanstillbepossible,敏感分析SensitivityAnalysis,当我们只改变一个变量时NPV会如何变化？WhathappenstoNPVwhenwevaryonevariableatatime敏感分析也是一种情景分析，这里只是看某种变量对NPV的影响ThisisasubsetofscenarioanalysiswherewearelookingattheeffectofspecificvariablesonNPV对NPV敏感性越大的变量，其预测风险就越大，我们就要对其多加关注ThegreaterthevolatilityinNPVinrelationtoaspecificvariable,thelargertheforecastingriskassociatedwiththatvariableandthemoreattentionwewanttopaytoitsestimation,新项目例子NewProjectExample,考虑书中讨论的项目Considertheprojectdiscussedinthetext项目原始成本为$200000,奉命期为5年，无殘值。按直线法折旧，必要报酬率为12%，税率为34%Theinitialcostis$200,000andtheprojecthasa5-yearlife.Thereisnosalvage.Depreciationisstraight-line,therequiredreturnis12%andthetaxrateis34%基本情形下的NPV值是15567ThebasecaseNPVis15,567,情景分析小结SummaryofScenarioAnalysis,情景分析小结SummaryofSensitivityAnalysis,做决策MakingADecision,注意“分析的麻痹”Beware“ParalysisofAnalysis”在某一时刻你必须做出决定Atsomepointyouhavetomakeadecision如果你大多数的情况下都得到了正的NPV，则你接受项目会觉得比较舒服IfthemajorityofyourscenarioshavepositiveNPVs,thenyoucanfeelreasonablycomfortableaboutacceptingtheproject如果某个重要变量的微小变动导致了负的NPV，你应该想到放弃该项目。IfyouhaveacrucialvariablethatleadstoanegativeNPVwithasmallchangeintheestimates,thenyoumaywanttoforegotheproject,管理选择（实物期权）ManagerialOptions,资本预算项目经常会出现其他我们没有考虑到的期权问题Capitalbudgetingprojectsoftenprovideotheroptionsthatwehavenotyetconsidered或有事件计划Contingencyplanning扩展选择Optiontoexpand放弃选择Optiontoabandon等待选择Optiontowait战略选择Strategicoptions,资本约束CapitalRationing,当公司或部分只有有限资源时会发生资本约束Capitalrationingoccurswhenafirmordivisionhaslimitedresources软约束Softrationingthelimitedresourcesaretemporary,oftenself-imposed硬约束Hardrationingcapitalwillneverbeavailableforthisproject当面临软约束时获利指数是一个很好的工具Theprofitabilityindexisausefultoolwhenfacedwithsoftrationing,QuickQuiz,Howdowedetermineifcashflowsarerelevanttothecapitalbudgetingdecision?Whatisscenarioanalysisandwhyisitimportant?Whatissensitivityanalysisandwhyisitimportant?Whataresomeadditionalmanagerialoptionsthatshouldbeconsidered?,Chapter,10,资本市场经验教训SomeLessonsfromCapitalMarketHistory,主要概念与技能KeyConceptsandSkills,知道如何计算投资报酬Knowhowtocalculatethereturnonaninvestment理解各种不同投资的历史报酬Understandthehistoricalreturnsonvarioustypesofinvestments理解各种投资的历史风险Understandthehistoricalrisksonvarioustypesofinvestments,本章内容安排ChapterOutline,报酬Returns历史记录TheHisto