管理学课件第6章 制定决策：管理者工作的本质(decision-making the essence of the manager 39;s job)

61,Chapter 6,Decision-Making: The Essence of the Managers Job(制定决策：管理者工作的本质),62,Decision Making,Decision(定义)Making a choice from two or more alternatives.The Decision-Making Process(决策过程)Identifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria.Developing, analyzing, and selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem.Implementing the selected alternative.Evaluating the decisions effectiveness.,63,Exhibit 61The Decision-Making Process,64,Step 1: Identifying the Problem,ProblemA discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs.Characteristics of ProblemsA problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it.There is pressure to solve the problem.The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the problem.,65,Step 2: Identifying Decision Criteria,Decision criteria are factors that are important (relevant) to resolving the problem.Costs that will be incurred (investments required)Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure)Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm),Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria,Decision criteria are not of equal importance:Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision making process.,66,Exhibit 62Criteria and Weights for Computer Replacement Decision,67,Step 4: Developing Alternatives,Identifying viable alternativesAlternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem.,Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives,Appraising each alternatives strengths and weaknessesAn alternatives appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.,68,Exhibit 63Assessed Values of Laptop Computers Using Decision Criteria,69,Step 6: Selecting an Alternative,Choosing the best alternativeThe alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.,Step 7: Implementing the Alternative,Putting the chosen alternative into action.Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision.,610,Exhibit 64Evaluation of Laptop Alternatives Against Weighted Criteria,611,Step 8: Evaluating the Decisions Effectiveness,The soundness of the decision is judged by its outcomes.How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives?If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong?,612,Exhibit 65Decisions in the Management Functions,613,Making Decisions,Rationality（理性）Managers make consistent, value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.Assumptions are that decision makers:Are perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical.Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives.Have a clear and specific goalWill select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organizations interests rather than in their personal interests.,614,Exhibit 66Assumptions of Rationality,615,Making Decisions (contd),Bounded Rationality（有限理性）Managers make decisions rationally, but are limited (bounded) by their ability to process information.Assumptions are that decision makers:Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesWill satisficechoose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problemrather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.Influence on decision makingEscalation of commitment (承诺升级): an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong.,616,The Role of Intuition（直觉的作用）,Intuitive decision making（直觉决策）Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment.,617,Exhibit 67What is Intuition?,Source: Based on L. A. Burke and M. K. Miller, “Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making,” Academy of Management Executive, October 1999, pp. 9199.,618,Types of Problems and Decisions,Structured Problems（结构良好的问题）Involve goals that clear.Are familiar (have occurred before).Are easily and completely definedinformation about the problem is available and complete.Programmed Decision（程序化决策）A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.,619,Types of Programmed Decisions,PolicyA general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem.ProcedureA series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond (applying a policy) to a structured problem.RuleAn explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do.,620,Policy, Procedure, and Rule Examples,PolicyAccept all customer-returned merchandise.ProcedureFollow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.RulesManagers must approve all refunds over $50.00.No credit purchases are refunded for cash.,621,Problems and Decisions (contd),Unstructured Problems（结构不良的问题）Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Nonprogrammed Decisions（非程序化决策）Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring.Decisions that generate unique responses.,622,问题类型、决策类型和组织层次,程序化决策,非程序化决策, Prentice Hall, 2002,6-22,623,Exhibit 68Programmed versus Nonprogrammed Decisions,624,1、个体决策2、群体决策,相对于个人决策，群体决策有一些优点： (1)能更大范围地汇总信息；(2)能拟订更多的备选方案； (3)能得到更多的认同；(4)能更好地沟通；(5)能作出更好的决策等。,但群体决策也有一些缺点，如花费较多的时间（群体决策的效率较低 ）、产生“从众现象”， 以及责任不明等。,适用范围,对于复杂、重要和需有关人员广泛接受的决策问题，组织最好要采取群体的方式来制定决策。,按决策者分类,在实践中，群体决策往往转换为一系列个体决策来求解。,625,Decision-Making Conditions,Certainty（确定性）A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known.Risk（风险性）A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives.Uncertainty（不确定性）,626,确定型、风险型、非确定型决策,627,确定性决策方法盈亏平衡分析,盈亏平衡点：企业经营活动处于不盈也不亏状态的保本点。,利润=总收入总成本其中：总收入=销售价格(P)*产销量(Q)总成本与产销量有关,总成本：包括固定成本（在一定期间内，当企业产销量变化时其总额保持不变的成本，如机器的折旧等）和变动成本 （指随产销量的增加而同步增加的费用或成本。如直接人工费、原材料消耗等费用 ）,628,产销量,固定成本,变动成本,总成本,成本,0,629,例题的图解,10,45000,产销量（千台）,金额（万元）,1,3,销售收入,总成本,固定成本,630,总成本与单位产品成本,利润产销量*单价产销量*单位变动成本固定成本 QP QCVF Q(P CV) F 式中P CV为单位（产品）的贡献毛收益，即产品销售单价超过单位变动成本的部分,由QP QCVF 0推导可得（此时盈亏相平）： Q 盈亏平衡点产销量,631,分析 是否同意接受该外商的订贷，要看降低了售价后是否还能给企业带来利润。,可能的错误是：内销产品单位贡献毛收益为100-60=40元，外销产品单位贡献毛收益为7550=25元，不合算。 外销产品的利润为25*2-250=-200，更不合算。,但是，实际上这家企业生产所投的固定成本已在内销产品中得到全额补偿并有盈余70万元，所以接受外商订货可使企业再净赚利润50万元。可见，要是这家企业没有其他更好的销售机会，应该作出接受外销订货、增加产销量的决策。,例假设某电子器件厂的主产品的生产能力为10万件，固定成本总额为250万元，单位变动成本为60元。已有国内订单共8万件，单价为100元。最近有一外商要求订货，但他出的单价仅为75元，订量2万件，并自己承担运输费用。由于这外销的2万件不需要企业支出推销费和运输费，这样可使单位变动成本降至50元。该厂是否接受外商的订货呢？,632,风险型决策方法 决策树法,例某公司为投产某种新产品拟定两个方案：一是建设规模较大的工厂，另一是建设规模比较小的工厂。假设两者的使用期一样，但建大厂需投资30万元，建小厂只需投资20万元。这种新产品未来的销路有好坏两种情况，它们出现的概率分别为0.7和0.3，相应的损益值预测结果是：若采纳建大厂方案，如果销路好，则生产经营这种新产品能带来100万元的收益，但如果遇到销路差的情况，则要损失20万元；若采纳建小厂的方案，如果销路好，经营收益能达到40万元，而如果销路差，则只有30万元的收益。试问哪一种方案更可取?,633,用决策树的方法比较和评价不同方案的经济效果，需要进行以下几个步骤的工作：,(1)根据决策备选方案的数目和对未来环境状态的了解，绘出决策树图形。,(2)计算各个方案的期望收益值。首先计算方案各状态枝的期望值（用方案在各种自然状态下的损益值去分别乘以各自然状态出现的概率）然后将各状态枝的期望收益值累加，求出每个方案的期望收益值 。,634,决策树 这是一种以树形图来辅助进行各方案期望收益的计算和比较的决策方法。决策树的基本形状如下图所示。,635,1,2,-30,-20,64,37,销路好P1=0.7,销路好P1=0.7,销路差P2=0.3,销路差P2=0.3,100万元,-20万元,40万元,30万元,建大厂需投资30万元，建小厂只需投资20万元新产品未来销路好坏出现的概率分别为0.7和0.3若建大厂，销路好，100万元的收益，销路差，损失20万元；若建小厂，销路好，40万元的收益，销路差，30万元的收益,636,Exhibit 69Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift（Robbins）,ExpectedExpectedProbability=Value of EachEventRevenuesAlternativeHeavy snowfall $850,0000.3=$255,000Normal snowfall 725,0000.5= 362,500Light snowfall 350,0000.2= 70,000 $687,500,637,Decision-Making Conditions,Uncertainty（不确定性决策方法）Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition, hunches, and “gut feelings”.Maximax（最大最大选择）: the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoffMaximin（最大最小选择）: the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoffMinimax（最小化其最大遗憾）: the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.,638,Exhibit 610Payoff Matrix,639,A企业在对手三种不同反击策略下的收益状态及方案选择,640,最大后悔值最小化准则,考虑到决策者在选定某一方案并付诸实施后，如果在未来实际遇到的自然状态并不与决策时的判断相吻合，这就意味着当初如果选取其他的方案反而会使企业得到更好的收益。,这种情况无形中表明，这次决策存在一种机会损失，它构成了决策的“遗憾值”，或称“后悔值”。这里，“后悔”的意思是：你选择了一种方案，实际上就放弃了其他方案可能增加的收益。所以，决策者将为此而感到后悔。“最大后悔值”最小化决策准则就是一种力求使每一种方案选择的最大后悔值达到尽量小的决策方法。,641,最大后悔值最小化准则习题分析,642,Decision-Making Styles（决策方式）,Dimensions of Decision-Making StylesWays of thinking（思维方式）理性的与直觉的不同Rational, orderly, and consistentIntuitive, creative, and uniqueTolerance for ambiguity（模糊承受力）一致型和某种顺序的需要与同时处理许多不同想法的不同Low tolerance: require consistency and orderHigh tolerance: multiple thoughts simultaneously,643,Decision-Making Styles (contd),Types of Decision MakersDirective（命令型）快速、有效率的、有逻辑的Use minimal information and consider few alternatives.Analytic （分析型）谨慎，具有适应和处理新情况的能力Make careful decisions in unique situations.Conceptual （概念型）能够寻求解决问题的创造性方案Maintain a broad outlook and consider many alternatives in making decisions.Behavioral （行为型）寻找决策的接受Avoid conflict by working well with others and being receptive to suggestions.,644,Exhibit 612Decision-Making Matrix,645,Exhibit 613Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases,646,Decision-Making Biases and Errors,Heuristics（启发法）Using “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making.Overconfidence Bias（自负）Holding unrealistically positive views of ones self and ones performance.Immediate Gratification Bias（即时满足）Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.,647,Decision-Making Biases and Errors (contd),Anchoring Effect（锚定效应）Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.Selective Perception Bias（选择性认知）Selecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision makers biased perceptions.Confirmation Bias（证实）Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.,648,Decision-Making Biases and Errors (contd),Framing Bias（取景效应）Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects.Availability Bias（可获得性）Losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.Representation Bias（典型性）Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist.Randomness Bias（随机性）Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.,649,Decision-Making Biases and Errors (contd),Sunk Costs Errors（沉没成本）Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences.Self-Serving Bias（自利性）Taki