战略和互联网的发展趋势.ppt

STRATEGYANDTHEINTERNET:TRENDSANDPREDICTIONS,RealTechConferencePeterStanger,E-COMMERCEISDEAD,“E-CommerceIsDead,LongLiveE-Commerce”TheIndustryStandard,April2000,“Going,Going,Gone:Business-to-ConsumerSectorGoesBust”F,April2000,“Canyoubuildabrandonlinesellingthird-partygoods?Theanswerisno,eventhougheveryoneusedtothinktheanswerwasyes”BryanRutbert,WarburgDillonRead,“Thelivingdeadhavegottenawaywithmurderbecausethepublicmarketshavefundedriskierventures.LookatA-ifcouldbethebiggestlivingdeadthepublicmarketshaveeverseen.”WarrenPackard,DraperFisherJurvetson,TOMSIEBELCEO,SiebelSystems,“Ifyoucantgenerateprofits,significantmarketshareandcustomersatisfaction,youreoutofbusiness.”“OntheB2Bexchangeside,Idontthinkanyonewillsurvive.Theyareallgone.”,THECAPITALMARKETSHADITALLWRONG,ISTHEREVOLUTIONOVER?July28,1794,THEBUMPYRIDEOFECONOMICREVOLUTIONS,1860-1890,1895-1925,FUNDAMENTALFORCESAREATWORK,LONGDISTANCE,Wholesale(Network)Design/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnection,RetailSales/marketingAccountmanagementBilling,RetailSales/marketingAccountmanagementBilling,NetworkDesign/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnection,Retail,RetailNetworkintelligenceValueaddedservices,WholesaleservicecreationNetworkintelligenceValueaddedservices,Networkmanagement/dispatch,Wholesale,PHARMACEUTICALS,Research,Development,Trials,Registration,Manufac-turing,SalesSECfilings;MediaMetrixandHarrisInteractivedata;industryassociationreports;analystreportsNote:Excludesfinancialbrokerage,11.5,15.2,NorthAmericanBusiness-to-ConsumerRevenues($B),20.6,+132%,+66%,+46%,26.7,44.5,Onlinechannel10%shareinseveralcategories,CATALOGUERSAREWINNING,EBITMarginin%ofRevenues,1999,2000,Source:TheStateofOnlineRetailing2.0,3.0,4.0;SSurveysconductedbyTheBostonConsultingGroup,ADVANTAGEINCUMBENTS,OnlineRetailing,DsMarketplacesCLECs,CataloguersGE,Big3ILECs/IXCs,B2B,Telecom,RENAISSANCEOFTHEFUNDAMENTALS,THEVASTMAJORITYOFCHANGEANDTRANSFORMATIONLIESAHEAD,Illustrativeviewoftransformingforces,Circa2010,Technology),Globalization,Deregulation,Electroniccommerce,Source:BCGanalysis,Deregulationandglobalizationindex(1999=100),Technologyandelectroniccommerceindex(1999=100),APERSPECTIVEONOPPORTUNITIESINREALESTATE:LEVERAGEYOURASSETS!,Assetturns(sales/assets),Cashflowmarginin%ofsales(%),Retail,ConstructionMachinery,Automobile,Chemicals,Utilities,RealEstate,Airline,Autoparts,Aerospace,Telecom,Source:BCGAnalysis,APERSPECTIVEONOPPORTUNITIESINREALESTATE:LEVERAGEYOU