Oracle应用系统发展势头强劲分析(英文版)

附件九：Oracle应用系统发展势头强劲主要竞争对手业绩不佳，99年13季度软件销售额增长率（同比上年）如下：99年第一季度99年第二季度99年第三季度Oracle5%28%11%PeopleSoft-44%-61%-67%SAP-8%-15%-26%竞争对手业绩不佳的主要原因是： 向e-business方向转变太慢 销售队伍严重流失 在客户关系管理领域（CRM）落后 处在产品转型阶段风险大 分析家们对它们近期前景亦不看好（详细内容请参阅下面文章）-Both SAP and PSFT made disappointing pre-announcements last weekindicating their results for Q3 would be weaker thananalysts expected. Final results for both companies were release withinthe past two days.In SAP reported final Q3 numbers in line with pre-announced results of(7%) total revenue growth and (26%) pure license growth. Analyst agreedthe revisions were significant and the potential for further downside isgreater than the likelihood of any upside in the near-term. TheUS-based business continues to struggle, with moderate improvement inthe Asia/Pacific region. The primary surprise for the quarter came fromhigher-than-expected operating expenses as SAP continues to investheavily in R&D and marketing to support its newly launched internetstrategy. Average revenue per new sale fell significantly as a resultof increased mid-market sales, incremental sales to the installed base,lower priced add-ons, and more prospects buying in smaller chunks. Theoverwhelming consensus among the analysts for SAP is an environmentcharacterized by a number of challenges, including a tough macroeconomicsituation, continued salesforce attrition (especially in the U.S.), anda complicated and late transition in an effort to become aninternet-enabled back- and front-office application provider.Furthermore, analysts expressed concern with the fundamental trend ofSAPs decreasing high-margin license revenue coupled with theirincreasing low-margin consulting revenue. The consensus followingmanagements comments was predominantly characterized as cautiouslyuncertain, with no clearly available catalyst to generate near-terminterest in the stock.PSFTs reported Q3 results were in line with the recent downwardlyrevised guidance given in the Companys October 11thpre-release. License revenue for the quarter was down 67% year overyear, with management attributing the shortfall to thecontinued soft demand for PSFTs core back-office applications,especially in the U.S. marketplace. Two noted concernsamong a number of analysts include issues surrounding PSFTs lack ofcompetitiveness in a shift to a e-business drivenmarketplace as well as PSFTs inability to retain talented individuals.The hard-to-answer question remains the timing for apotential recovery as PSFT shifts its product base towards e-businesssolutions and eventually integrates front-office supplierVantive. Analysts current expectations are for some recovery beginningin early 2000, but acknowledge that transition risksremain, and caution investors that it is safer to remain on thesidelines in the near-term. Overall, the analysts sentiment towardsPSFT was similar to that of SAP - youre behind the times and havequite a way to catch up! As a result, neither represents athreat to ORCL in the foreseeable future.Summary of Results:ERP license revenue comparison: YoY pure license growth: CY Q1 CYQ2 CYQ3ORCL 5% 28% 11%PSFT (44%) (61%) (67%)SAP (8%) (15%) (26%)SAP Operating Margin: 7.3% vs 19.3% in Q398Peoplesoft Operating Margin: 1.5% vs 18.6% in Q398Analyst Quotes:- Neil Herman, Salomon Smith BarneyWhile, in our view, the macroeconomic environment for the ERP playersmay have stopped getting worse, SAP has some work to do regarding its mySAP and Internet initiatives. Therefore, we are inclined to believe that this may not be the last disappointing earnings announcement before the company emerges from the forest.- Devika Malik, J.P. MorganWe think that SAPs weak third-quarter results are due to two factors:(1.) based on our ongoing discussions with CIOs(head of IT), we believe that companies are completing their Y2Kremediation work and new projects will not start untilfourth-quarter 1999 at the earliest; and (2.) we feel that there is alsoa product transition issue. SAP launched mySAP.com inmid-September and orders for SAPs R3 products will probably suffer ascustomers review the newer internet enabledsolution.- Steve Palfrey, BernsteinWe continue to see evidence in the market the PSFT is having to fightconcerns in the market about its long term strength. Webelieve that to regain its momentum in the marketplace, PSFT needs tofocus it energy on a few vertical markets where it candifferentiate itself from ORCL and SAP. We continue to rate PeopleSoftmarket perform. Until PeopleSoft shows signs that itcan regain the market share it has lost this year and beat estimates in2000, it is unlikely to outperform. However, given thelow expectations for license growth in the near term, significantdownside to the stock also appears unlikely.- Rich Scocozza, Bear SternsWe believe the ongoing weakness in product license revenue is due tocore ERP market saturation and shifting softwarepriorities, particularly toward e-commerce. Companies are moreconcerned about building a c