宏观经济分析英文论文

2010 2011 Survey and analysis of domestic inflationIntroductionCurrent inflationhas become ahot spot.AsChinas economicdevelopment isa stage of development, andenergy,real estateissues,issues such asagricultural productthe combined effect, makingChinasinflation problemeven morecomplicated. This articlefrom the currentsituationofinflation, analyzesthe causes ofinflation,put forwardthe proposalreducethe currentinflationin China. According to National Bureau of Statistics January 20, 2011 data released in 2010, Chinas annual consumer price index (CPI) continued to rise, 1.5% from the beginning of the year have been rising to a high of 5.1% in November, December CPI rose4.6%, the Central rose 0.5%, annual increase of 3.3%.Last years price increases, making China the emergence of a large number of price of fresh words, such as garlic you vicious, beans you play, Oil can not you, Jiang your army to sugar Emperor, etc.endless variety of new price terms, Joking revealed a high price.The trend in 2011 is still not reduced, but the more intense the more speech.March consumer prices rose 5.4%, 5.3% in April.But many people believe that this data is low, generally believe that in 2010 inflation was 7.1%.Ineconomics,inflationis a rise in the generallevel of pricesof goods and services in aneconomyover a period of time.When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. Consequently, inflation also reflects an erosion in thepurchasing powerof money a loss of real value in the internal medium of exchange and unit of account in the economy.A chief measure of price inflation is theinflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a generalprice index(normally theConsumer Price Index) over time. Inflations effects on an economy are various and can be simultaneouslypositiveandnegative. Negative effects of inflation include a decrease in the real value of money and other monetary items over time, uncertainty over future inflation may discourage investment and savings, and high inflation may lead to shortages ofgoodsif consumers beginhoardingout of concern that prices will increase in the future. Positive effects include ensuring central banks can adjustnominal interest rates,and encouraging investment in non-monetary capital projects.Economists generally agree that high rates of inflation andhyperinflationare caused by an excessive growth of the money supply.Views on which factors determine low to moderate rates of inflation are more varied. Low or moderate inflation may be attributed to fluctuations inrealdemandfor goods and services, or changes in available supplies such as duringscarcities, as well as to growth in the money supply. However, the consensus view is that a long sustained period of inflation is caused by money supply growing faster than the rate ofeconomic growth. Today, mostmainstream economistsfavor a low, steady rate of inflation. Low (as opposed to zero ornegative) inflation may reduce the severity of economicrecessionsby enabling the labor market to adjust more quickly in a downturn, and reduce the risk that aliquidity trappreventsmonetary policyfrom stabilizing the economy. The task of keeping the rate of inflation low and stable is usually given tomonetary authorities. Generally, these monetary authorities are thecentral banksthat control the size of the money supply through the setting ofinterest rates, throughopen market operations, and through the setting of bankingreserve requirements.The major inflation problem in China today Analysts generally agreed that the upcoming December 2009 the consumer price index (CPI) change appears more likely-than-expected, CPI is expected to about 1.5% to 2% in the last month, based on rapid rise in food prices, taking into account snow and other weather factors, and even monthly CPI does not rule out more than 2%.The judge for the 2010 CPI, analysts believe that about 3% of the year, but may occur in the fourth quarter, nearly 5% inflation pressures.1. The steady rise in real estate development and investment, house prices gradually increase the impact of inflation expectations. Real estate has been the governments macroeconomic regulation and control of the most intractable problems, the Government recently introduced the most severe history of price control programs, such as the limit of loans, property tax, etc. Now, after the introduction of a series of control measures, many people saidChinas golden years will soon end of the property market, some people would say it is short-term regulation, after all, is temporary, and may cause shock.But back to the view of the recent property market began to pick up, there has been more on the expansion of the more suppressed the strange phenomenon.This makes the already healthy property market is near collapse, accelerating inflation swell.2. The full prices of agricultural products, inflation unannounced. National Bureau of Statistics released the major food prices in 50 cities found: April 21-30 May, tomato, potato, rice, flour, respectively, the average price of 5.87 yuan / kg, 4.71 yuan / kg, 4.51 yuan / kg, 3.46 yuan /kg, respectively, over the same period rose 6.5% last month, 13.5%, 2.3%, 0.9%, while the same period last year rose 20.5%, 49%, 18.4%, 9.5%.Monitored by the 27 major agricultural products, only 5 kinds of agricultural products has declined over the same period last year, prices of agricultural products accounted for 81.5%, of which the largest rate of increase in vegetable prices.General rise in prices of agricultural products, the industry analysis of its causes, in addition to the imbalance between supply and demand caused by weather, transportation and labor costs and other factors, the hot money trap the use of information, speculation and other means of collective cry rose garlic, green beans and other agricultural products, as this rounddriving force behind the price surge.3. Energy prices, accelerated inflation Chinas new round of energy price adjustments curtain has been opened.Full of energy prices began to rise.After the oil price increases, the refined oil products have been reaching record highs.In addition to natural gas, start a new round of price increases throughout.Another product electricity, the National Development and Reform Commission has also reported the sale price has been adjusted to discuss the program with the provinces to carry out the work of the message, the terminal sales price of the average increase is expected to be 2 cents perso.This will speed up the inflationInflation Analysis Find information on before the contents of an individual under the school in 2010 to 2011, inflation did its own analysis.Inflation performance is the most intuitive prices. This is most frequently heard the news two years housing prices, rising oil prices, vegetable prices rose.Real estate housing prices because of course caused by heat. Price of oil is basically controlled by the government, oil prices mean that the government should be more money.Perhaps because of rising vegetable prices in short supply the last two years more countries to natural disasters, leading to crop failures, natural vegetable prices to rise.Related to the oil industry, oil prices rise, many production costs will rise, and the corresponding product price is higher. Vegetables, the price of them is directly related to feeding and housing people.Taking these three categories, prices were all up, and people without a corresponding increase in production and I think these should be part of the reason leading to the price.Here are my online documentation under the inflation triggered by a number of elements proved I said on several points.1. Because of the frequent natural disasters, agricultural crop failure Chinas overall agricultural harvest in 2010, resulting in price increases rapidly.First, the spread of dust in arid regions of Inner Mongolia to the east and south; Secondly, Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan, Guangxi, a large area of drought; Moreover, the earthquake of Yushu County of magnitude 7.1 occurred in April, caused 2698 people were killed, 270 missing; the same time, Hainan, as the supply of vegetables is important to have flooding in October, leading to serious food prices. These natural disasters caused food shortages, leading to further price increases caused by inflation.Meanwhile, some countries experienced drought and floods in 2010 caused by food production and international agricultural prices and thus domestic prices in China had a significant impact.2. Adjustment of national policies to promote rising prices First, in 2010 China, the price adjustment, electric, water, natural gas prices rise, exacerbating inflation.Second, because Chinas market economy is not standardized, the central government regulation of real estate, the community out a lot of hot money from property speculation after a serious agricultural products.Excess liquidity in the current circumstances, increasing the value of capital investment demand caused inflation. In addition, early November 2010, the United States announced a new round of quantitative easing policy, the release makes the flow of foreign agricultural products in China, commodities and raw materials (such as crude oil) prices rise, and spread to China, the CPI growth rate than expected.3. The excessive currency and the entry of hot money Since 2008, the financial tsunami, the global economic stimulus policies for large-scale, issue a lot of money, the United States after the implementation of Chinas financial crisis on Wall Streets economic stimulus policy, money supply issue too, theoretically more than twice the GDP, the currency market liquiditytoo large, the high side when the money supply when the price naturally rises.At the same time, the exchange rate imbalances, speculative hot money has poured into China, investing a lot of money has led to excessive money supply, how much liquidity will cause inflation.4. Acceleration of industrialization and domestic prices of production factors Chinas industrialization and per capita income increase rate of speed, the size of the expansion of consumption of various types of bulk products, the formation of Chinas total consumption of primary products, resource availability and the world was the gap between the international commodity prices will rise significantly.On the other hand, the rise in prices of domestic factors of production, raw materials, fuel and power purchase prices, while rising costs up downstream transmission, promoting the goods prices as the main driving force, and ultimately by the cost factors have led to rising prices push inflation. There are a number of international reasons, saying more professional and personal understanding of a moment, summarized into two points.The first is the international market, increased demand on Chinas material, resulting in the domestic market for less than demand, prices rise.The second is the United States put pressure on the RMB exchange rate, making China the formation of asset bubbles.But this I am not very understanding.Inflation Control Measures With the current situation and reasons, but also see some inflation management measures, the reasons for the relative measures personal feeling a little misty look, the direction of not only the content of the concrete implementation, there may be a limited degree, but I do not understand, time being the removal ofonline text:,1.Adjustment of economic structure, and curb price rises Adjustment of national economic structure, promoting the coordinated development of all walks of life, stabilize prices.State to use its economic, legal and necessary administrative means, to change the existing situation of economic structure, so that reasonable prices, perfect, and further the development of productive forces.Sector investment to use central reserve, in case of emergency such as occurrence of Yushu, to ensure market supply; improved pricing environment.Meanwhile, new industries and accelerate the formation of the strategic layout of the industrial chain, maintain or accelerate the economic development of the original speed, so increasing the value of funding needs are met, to artificially reduce the pace of economic development may actually increase inflation.2. Implementing prudent fiscal policy Reasonable grasp of the scale of fiscal expenditure to improve the fiscal expenditure structure, increase financial subsidies and tax cuts, the establishment of consumer-oriented fiscal policy.Continue to promote the appreciation of the RMB slowly to form a reasonable exchange rate of fluctuations in space, increasing speed up foreign investment.At the same time, to meet the adjustment of RMB exchange rate policy, should strengthen supervision of cross-border capital flows, effectively prevent the international short-term speculative capital inflows.Appropriate to relax foreign exchange controls, in particular, to reform the current system of mandatory foreign exchange settlement, foreign currency held by enterprises and individuals to relax the degree of freedom, held by market players to increase the proportion of foreign exchange, foreign exchange reserves to expand the use of the path, the real savings, remittances in the countryto Meeting the people, the changes in order to reduce the central banks foreign exchange.3.Strengthen price controls, promote resource price reform Price control measures being taken, although there is a momentary inhibition of inflation, but inflation is a serious hidden, and will eventually be released, so not a permanent solution.So to retire early determination of oil as soon as possible, electricity price control methods other items in order to rationalize the price gap between domestic and international market and price system.Distinguish between major projects continue to take policy on people important consumer goods, the shortage of fields, the use of policies supporting the expansion of investment, such as agricultural products, real estate, etc., and continue to selectively expand investment.Conclusion2012 Chinasinflationpressurewill be relatively large,infl