E2019美赛特等奖全部论文1916777

校苑数模 微信公众号 For offi ce use only T1 T2 T3 T4 Team Control Number 1916777 Problem Chosen E For offi ce use only F1 F2 F3 F4 2019 Interdisciplinary Contest in Modeling (ICM) Summary Sheet Assessment of ecological services Summary Traditionally, the economic theories have not considered the impact of ecosystem services. In order to implement the concept of sustainable development and change the status quo of ecosystem destruction caused by human abuse of land, an ecological service evaluation model is required to establish for determining the real and compre- hensive valuation of the projects. Firstly, we give a set of indicators to analyze the true economic costs of land-use projects when ecosystem services are considered, including the natural resource deple- tion (NRD), preventive cost (PC) and repair cost (RC). By these indicators, we analyze the defi nition of environmental costs and the total cost of environmental pollution and ecological damage. Secondly, inordertomakethecost-benefi tanalysisoflandusedevelopmentprojects for different scales, we give two instances: a rural community-based and south-to- north water transfer center project in China. For the community-based project, we extract the main data from the collected data in the land use development area, use the transfer network based on the GIS map, and dynamically analyze the impact of land change on the environment. For the large national projects, we use the main pollu- tants based on principal component analysis (PCA). In addition, we combine with the ecological environment assessment model and the cost of environmental degradation. Thirdly, we use the sensitivity analysis to determine the infl uencing factors of the model and the dependence of the relevant parameters on the model. By changing the value of the parameters, we analyze the different results of the environmental cost and fi nd our model and methods are stable. The results from the proposed model show that the main infl uencing factor of the accuracy is the depletion of production materialsandthemodeliseffective. Moreover, ourmodelmakesproperimproves, and the introduction of human science factors is negatively correlated with environmental costs, resulting in new calculation expressions: Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of the model are described and summa- rized, for further expanding and improving the proposed model. Keywords: Ecosystem services; Land use projects; Principal component analysis; Environmental cost. 请关注“校苑数模”微信公众号，获取更多资料添加微信 math-o 获取免费课程 校苑数模收集整理 ，版 权归原作者所有 校苑数模 微信公众号 Contents 1Introduction1 1.1Background. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 1.2Restatement of the problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 1.3Overview of our work. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 2 General Assumptions and Justifi cations2 3Variable Description2 4Ecological Service Valuation Model3 4.1How to assess the costs? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 4.2Natural resource depletion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 4.3Repair cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 4.4Preventive cost. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 4.5Evaluation of environmental degradation cost. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 5 Performing a Cost Benefi t Analysis10 5.1For small community-based project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 5.2For South-to-North Water Transfer projection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 5.3 Project benefi t analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 6Sensitivity analysis15 6.1Basic issue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 6.2Sensitivity analysis result. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 7Implications on Planners and Managers16 8Model Changes Over Time18 9Strengths and Weakness19 9.1Strengths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 9.2Weakness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 10 Conclusion19 References19 请关注“校苑数模”微信公众号，获取更多资料添加微信 math-o 获取免费课程 校苑数模收集整理 ，版 权归原作者所有 校苑数模 微信公众号 Team # 1916777Page 1 of 20 1Introduction 1.1Background In recent decades, in order to implement the concept of sustainable development and change the status quo of human ecosystem destruction caused by human abuse of land, the understanding of the ecosystem has been transformed from an inexhaustible unpaid theory to a service theory of paid supply 1. However, ecosystem services are often in the category of open access and purely public services, which means that they often have no producer property rights, vague rights structures and prohibitive trans- action costs. It is diffi cult for managers to measure the value of ecological services in the form of monetization. Considering these issues, Richmond et al. adopted the net primary production agency ecosystem service system 2, and Norgaard, elaborated on the ecosystem ser- vice value assessment method from an ecological perspective. The ecosystem service value assessment system was established in 3. Therefore, the ecosystem services can be measured from the use value, non-use value, and they can be subdivided into the value of natural resources, soil, surface water and ecosystem. 1.2Restatement of the problem Traditionally, most land-use projects have not considered the impact and changes of ecosystem services. The economic costs to mitigate negative results of land use changes: polluted rivers, poor air quality, hazardous waste sites, poorly treated waste water, climate changes, etc., are often not included in the plan. To understand the true economic costs of land-use projects, our team was hired to create an eco-service eval- uation model when considering ecosystem services. We need to answer the following two questions: (1) Is it possible to put a value on the environmental cost of land use development projects? (2)Howwouldenvironmentaldegradationbeaccountedforintheseprojectcosts by the mathematic model? 1.3Overview of our work 1. First, we make an analysis of the real economic cost of the land use project, namely, the environmental cost, when considering ecosystem services. Then, we consider this issue by three indicators, called natural resource depletion (NRD), preventive cost (PC) and repair cost (RC). Furthermore, we use the corresponding secondary and tertiary indicators. 2. To show the effi ciency of the proposed model, we explore the small-scale communi- ty project and the South-to-North Water Transfer Middle Line Project (a large- scale national project), and make the cost-benefi t analysis of the project separately. 请关注“校苑数模”微信公众号，获取更多资料添加微信 math-o 获取免费课程 校苑数模收集整理 ，版 权归原作者所有 校苑数模 微信公众号 Team # 1916777Page 2 of 20 3. Combining the local sensitivity analysis with the global sensitivity analysis, the va- lidity of the model is testifi ed . 4. In order to help project planners for determining the location of the minimum envi- ronmental cost, we select the land use development project area and use numerical simulation. 5. Finally, the extra factors related the times are added to the proposed model for illus- trating the change over time. 2 General Assumptions and Justifi cations To simplify the considered problems, we make the following basic assumptions, which are properly justifi ed. The data collected is more authentic and reliable, and there will be no critical data errors. Sudden changes in the ecological environment are ignored in the calculation of environmental costs. Annual resource rents remain constant at the comparable price levels. Each sub-indicator only plays a role in the range of indicators set, ignoring the effect on other indicators. Explosive changes are ignored in the predictions of more than a decade. 3Variable Description Table 1: Symbol TablelCVariables SymbolDescription NRDNatural resource depletion RCRepair cost PCProtective cost CNRDij The NRD for the j-th second class indicator of the i-th fi rst class indicator CRCij The RC for the j-th second class indicator of the i-th fi rst class indicator CPCij The PC for the j-th second class indicator of the i-th fi rst class indicator ESAMetrics for ecological service assessment eiThe i-th index entropy pijThe weight of the j-th index and the i-th evaluation index vjThe comprehensive evaluation value under the j-th index 请关注“校苑数模”微信公众号，获取更多资料添加微信 math-o 获取免费课程 校苑数模收集整理 ，版 权归原作者所有 校苑数模 微信公众号 Team # 1916777Page 3 of 20 4Ecological Service Valuation Model According to the information provided in the literatures 4-6, there are three type- s of main costs for exploring land development and utilization when the ecological services were considered: natural resource depletion, pollution remediation and pro- tective expenditure. In this section, we follows their ideas and set up an unique mathe- matic model to evaluate the ecological services. Now, we explain three indictors men- tioned above. Natural resource depletion is a material environmental resource that calculates how much value is consumed by humans. Reparative expenditure refers to the environmental protection expenditure, which is the costs to prevent the environmental damage, or incurred in repairing the dam- aged environment. Protective expenditure a. refers to the cost of education to eliminate the negative impact of land develop- ment and utilization; b. refers to the expenses incurred in measuring pollution, collecting data, and im- plementing relevant policies in order to manage environmental quality. 4.1How to assess the costs? Assessing the costs is of great importance for setting up the model and understand- ing the ecosystem services. Here, we give some principles for determining indicators and show their ranges, according to the theoretical and practical properties. 4.1.1Principles for determining indicators The principle of market price. Environmental assets with market prices are pre- ferred for inclusion in the accounting range. There are no direct market prices but there are indirect market prices and important ones are also optional. There is no price basis for non-selection. Comparability principle. The results of the calculations should be comparable for comparison, including horizontal comparison and vertical comparison. To ensure comparability, the scope and method of environmental value accounting should be as consistent as possible for different regions Theprinciple of implement. Environmental accounting must be implementable. In addition to price factors, physical quantity data is also essential. For environmental assets that lack physical quantity data, they can only be temporarily not accounted for. 请关注“校苑数模”微信公众号，获取更多资料添加微信 math-o 获取免费课程 校苑数模收集整理 ，版 权归原作者所有 Team # 1916777Page 4 of 20 4.1.2Determine the accounting range of the indicator According to the literature 5, the ecological service consists of fi ve parts. For Life- fulfi lling services and Preservation of options, we do not include them in the model due to the lack of data and uncertainty. According to the three principles mentioned above, we have natural resource de- pletion and protective expenditure based on the physical quantity data available in the China Environmental Statistics Yearbook and the specifi c classifi cation of Chinas physical quantity. The classifi cation of environmental awareness was divided into three parts. Moreover, we use eight secondary infl uencing factors for further explain- ing the indicators in detail. Figure 1: All the indicators for exploring the costs. 4.2Natural resource depletion 4.2.1Potential indicators for natural resource depletion From the environmental theme of environmental protection 6, natural resource depletion contains many topics, such as forest resources, crop resources, aquatic re- sources, animal resources, metal minerals and non-metallic minerals. We divide these topics into two categories: production materials and energy consumption. And we show this relationship in Figure 2. Figure 2: Two categories of Natural Resource Depletion 请关注“校苑数模”微信公众号，获取更多资料添加微信 math-o 获取免费课程 校苑数模收集整理 ，版 权归原作者所有 Team # 1916777Page 5 of 20 The depletion of production materials is a component that focuses on understand- ing the value of commodity production in ecosystem services, mainly in forest re- sources, crop resources, aquatic resources and animal resources, which are the prod- ucts of ecosystem cycles. When a new land development project is introduced, the production losses caused by the original ecosystem damage are equivalent to the sum of the four parts of the resource losses. ?Forest resource. According to the literature 7, the value in forest resource is the discounted value of the mature forest price after deducting the cost during the forest growth period. According to the standing value method, the direct application of the net present value is more complicated, so it is simplifi ed to CNRD11=A p Q,(4.1) where A is the forest area (unit: hectare), p is the average standing price per cubic meter (equivalent to the price of the log minus the cost of cutting), and Q is the level of forest stock (unit: cubic meter hectare). ?Crop resource. For crop resource, market prices can be obtained and valued by the market price method. The calculation formula is as follows: CNRD12= n i=1 PiQi,(4.2) where Pirepresents the price, Qirepresents the crop yield, and i represents the type of crop. ?Water resource. The water has been in a state of constant circulation. In the phys- ical quantity data, the surface water and groundwater will be repeated, and the water has different quality. In theory, the price of water should also be different due to its quality. We use the possession method to estimate water resources. The formula for calculating the value of surface water resources reads as: Cs= n1 t=1 Rs (1 + r)t = n1 t=1 PsQs (1 + r)t ,(4.3) where Rsis the surface water resource rent; Psis the surface water resource fee, which represents the unit resource rent; Qsis the total surface water; r is the discount rate; n1is the current total surface water useful life. Similarly, we can get the formula for calculating the value of groundwater resources as follows: Cg= n2 t=1 Rg (1 + r)t = n1 t=1 Pg Qg (1 + r)t .(4.4) Bysummarizingthevalueofsurfacewaterandgroundwater, wecancalculate the total value of water resources, expressed as CNRD13= Cs+ Cg; ?Aquatic resource. Fish cultured by water-producing institutions are assets of production that are privately owned and can be traded on the market. In most cases, it is easy to obtain the market price of fi sh, and the market price method can be used to estimate the fi sh value: CNRD14= n i=1 piQi+ m j=1 pjQi,(4.5) 请关注“校苑数模”微信公众号，获取更多资料添加微信 math-o 获取免费课程 校苑数模收集整理 ，版 权归原作者所有 Team # 1916777Page 6 of 20 where p represents the price; Q represents the amount of aquaculture; i indicates the type of aquaculture produced and j indicates the type of fi sh caught. Energy consumption reduction. Energy is the original commodity of ecosystem services. By accounting for metal minerals, non-metallic mines and biomass energy, we can assess the value of the energy depletion portion of ecosystems after land development. The following formula can be obtained by using the price-adjusted net present value method. CNRD2i= n i=1 R ( 1 + i 1 + r )t = R (1 + i) (r i) ( 1 ( 1 + i 1 + r )n) ,(4.6) where R is the resource rent; i is the price growth rate of the resource; r is the discount rate; n is the resource life. 4.2.2The NRD accounting system Based on the analysis of natural resource depletion above, we developed a method, called Natural Resource Loss (NRD), to assess the cost of ecological services at the natural loss level. The indicator includes two primary indicators and seven secondary indicators. We show the metrics for NRD in Table 2. Table 2: The indicators used in the natural resource depletion. IndicatorsNotationIndicatorsNotationTarget Forest resourcesNDR11 Crop resourcesNDR11 Water resourcesNDR12 Production material consumption NDR1 Aquatic resourcesNDR13 Metal mineralsNDR21 Non-metallic mineralsNDR22 NRD Energy consumption NDR2 Biomass energyNDR23 Explanation: the smaller the seven indicators listed in the above table, the more natural resource consumption and the corresponding calculated environmental expen- diture costs. Since the cost proportion of each factor is different, in order to reduce the error caused by calculation, we add the correction coeffi cient and get the accounting formula of NRD as CNRD= 1 CNRD1+ 2 CNRD2+ 3 CNRD3. 4.3Repair cost 4.3.1Potential indicators for repair cost In this section, we analyze the evaluation indicators of repair expenditure using multi-criteria analysis 5. In addition, we show the Amazon agricultural develop- ment case in evaluating sustainability options. The repair expenditure consists of three components, (a) detoxifi cation and decomposition of waste; (b) investment in air and water purifi cation, and (c) investment in afforestation. In order to better describe the components of the repair expenditure. 请关注“校苑数模”微信公众号，获取更多资料添加微信 math-o 获取免费课程 校苑数模收集整理 ，版 权归原作者所有 Team # 1916777Page 7 of 20 Contamination composition. During the land development process, various pol- lution is produced, such as: air, water and solid pollution. Pollution will cause degradation of environmental quality. In order to improve the environmental qual- ity, it is necessary to take many effective measures. According to reference 7, we use more convincing and virtual governance costs to estimate the value of environ- mental degradation. 1. When the environment quality is degraded, the degraded value becomes a com- ponent of the product value. This value is non-productive, and should be de- ducted. 2. The actual treatment cost paid makes the environment improve. Deduc