世行行长金镛在乔治敦大学的演.doc

世行行长金镛在乔治敦大学的演讲爱思英语编者按：金辰勇，男，美国国籍，1959年出生于韩国首尔，5岁时随家人移居美国，在艾奥瓦州长大。他的父亲是一名牙医，曾在大学任教。1991年金辰勇在哈佛大学医学院获得医学博士学位，1993年获得哈佛大学人类学博士学位。2012年3月23日，美国总统奥巴马提名韩裔美籍医学教授、美国达特茅斯学院校长金辰勇接替将在6月结束任期的佐利克，担任世界银行下任行长。Within Our Grasp: A World Free of Poverty“一个没有贫困的世界”目标可及-Speech at Georgetown University在乔治敦大学的演讲World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim世界银行集团行长金墉Washington, DC华盛顿April 2, 20132013年4月2日Thank you. Its always a pleasure to visit a great academic institution, one engaged in preparing the leaders of the future.谢谢各位。访问一所著名学府，一所致力于培养未来领导人的著名学府，总是一件令人愉快的事。Im here today to talk to you about the future, about the opportunity to create a world free from the stain of poverty and economic exclusion.我今天来此和各位谈谈我对未来的看法，谈谈创造一个没有贫困与经济排斥污点的世界的机遇。My message to you is that such a world is within our reach. But if we are to succeed, we have to make some hard decisions and change the way we work together.我给各位的信息是，这样一个世界是有望实现的，但要想获得成功，我们现在就必须做出一些困难的决策，改变我们一起工作的方式。To understand the historic opportunity in front of us, and what we must do to transform history, let me begin with some observations on the global development landscape today and the outlook for the medium term.要想认识摆在我们面前的这个历史性机遇，要想知道我们必须做些什么才能改变历史，让我先从对当前全球发展局势及其中期前景的一些看法谈起。The Global Development Landscape全球发展局势Let me start by noting that the crisis which has gripped the global economy over the last four and a half years does not yet show clear signs of abatement. So many green shoots have sprouted and withered in the last year or two that we should be cautious in assessing the future. As recent events in Cyprus demonstrate, it is too early to declare victory. At the same time there is growing evidence that we are on the right track, although there are sure to be some bumps in the road ahead.首先我想指出，笼罩全球经济长达四年半之久的危机并未显现出清晰的消退迹象。在过去一两年许多绿芽萌生又枯萎，因此我们在评估未来时应当十分谨慎。最近塞浦路斯的事态发展表明，宣告胜利还为时过早。同时，越来越多的证据显示我们走在正确的轨道上，尽管前路仍会坎坷不平。Market conditions in Europe have improved since the turbulence of last spring and summer. Thanks to the commitment by European leaders to contain financial volatility, many risk indicators are back at levels last seen in early 2010 before concerns about Euro Area fiscal sustainability emerged. While European policymakers deserve credit for these improvements, its important for us to recognize that the injection of liquidity only buys us time; it does not solve the problem. Many more difficult decisions pertaining to fiscal and banking policies remain.欧洲的市场状况自去年春夏动荡以来已有改善。由于欧洲领导人为遏制金融动荡所作出的承诺，诸多风险指标已回归到2010年初即对欧元区财政可持续性的担忧出现之前的水平。虽然欧洲政策制定者带来这些改善值得称赞，但重要的是我们要认识到注入流动性只是为我们争取了时间，并没有解决问题。还有更多关于财政和银行政策的困难决策仍有待做出。In the real economy, there are some weak signals that recovery is underway. In high-income countries, headwinds from fiscal consolidation continue to dragon growth, but we may have turned a corner. Here in the US, both the housing market and labor market are improving over one million jobs have been added to the American economy in the last six months though we must note that there remains a lingering uncertainty over the deadlock in fiscal policy. In Europe, GDP is projected to shrink by 0.2 percent this year, and some of the difficulties will continue to persist until late 2014 and early 2015.在实体经济中有些微弱的信号显示复苏已经开始。在高收入国家，来自财政整顿的逆风继续拖累增长，但我们可能已渡过难关。在美国，住房市场和劳动力市场都出现改善过去六个月美国经济增加了一百多万就业岗位但我们必须注意财政政策僵局的不确定性仍阴魂不散。在欧洲， GDP今年预计将收缩0.2%，一些困难会继续存在直至2014年和2015年初。When we look at the economic picture ahead for developing countries, the prospects are brighter. The economies of the developing world are expected to expand by 5.5 percent this year, and we forecast growth will further accelerate to 5.7 percent and 5.8 percent in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Dynamic and competitive firms are opening and expanding all over the developing world, from small startups to multinational corporations.当我们审视发展中国家未来的经济状况时，前景比较光明。发展中世界各经济体今年预计可以5.5%的强劲速度扩张。我们预测2014年和2015年增长将进一步加速到5.7%和5.8%。在整个发展中世界，生机勃勃和具有竞争力的企业从新成立的小企业到大跨国公司都在开放和扩张。I was recently in Chengdu, China, where I met an entrepreneur named Zhang Yan. A few years back, she had big dreams to build a business but lacked access to finance. She was able to secure a $10,000 loan through a local banks initiative to finance female entrepreneurs - a program supported by the International Finance Corporation, the World Bank Groups private sector lending arm. Zhang used her loan to open a car repair shop, and today, she runs a thriving business that employs more than 150 people. I just received an email from her over the weekend. She plans to open a third repair shop, and will continue to promote social responsibility by hiring and training women who have previously not had access to good jobs. Her story mirrors the experiences of millions of ambitious individuals across the globe. When they are given the chance to succeed in business, they seize it. In turn, they create jobs and opportunities for their neighbors.我最近访问中国时在成都遇见张妍。几年前，她有一个办企业的大梦想但没有融资渠道。她通过本地一家银行的女企业家贷款计划获得了1万美元贷款，这个计划是世界银行集团的私营部门贷款机构国际金融公司所支持的。张妍利用这笔贷款开了一间汽车修理厂。如今她生意兴隆，雇了150多名工人。这个周末我刚刚收到她的一封邮件。她计划开办第三间修理厂，并将通过雇佣和培训过去找不到好工作的妇女来继续履行社会责任。她的故事反映了世界各地千百万雄心勃勃的个人的经历。当他们被赋予获得商业成功的机会时，他们就会抓住不放。反过来，他们又为街坊四邻创造了就业和机会。This private sector growth is reaping impressive development gains, especially when coupled with more effective pro-poor interventions on the part of governments, international donors, and civil society. Today extreme poverty is in retreat. In 1990, 43 percent of the developing world lived on less than $1.25 a day. In 2010 20 years later - we estimate that the global poverty rate dropped to 21 percent. The first Millennium Development Goal, to halve extreme poverty, was achieved five years ahead of time.这种私营部门增长收获了显著的发展成果，特别是在与政府、国际援助机构和民间社团方面比较有效的有利穷人的干预措施相结合的情况下尤为显著。如今极度贫困在减少。1990年，发展中国家43%的人口生活在每天1.25美元的贫困线下。在20年后的2010年，我们估计全球贫困率已下降到21%。将极度贫困减半的首个千年发展目标提前五年实现。And the advances in the social sector are perhaps even more remarkable. In the last decade, eight million AIDS patients have received antiretroviral therapy. The annual number of malaria deaths has dropped by 75 percent. The total number of out-of-school children has fallen by over 40 percent.而在社会领域取得的进步可能更加突出。过去十年有800万艾滋病患者获得了抗逆转录病毒治疗。疟疾年死亡人数下降了75%。辍学儿童总人数下降了40%以上。Looking ahead, we believe the conditions are in place for continued strong performance in developing countries. Yet we cant take high growth rates for granted. Maintaining growth of 6 percent, let alone the 7 or 8 percent many economies achieved during the pre-crisis boom period, will require sustained reform efforts. For example, countries must continue to improve the quality of education, governance, and the business climate; modernize their infrastructure; ensure energy and food security; and enhance financial intermediation.展望未来，我们认为，发展中国家有条件继续保持强劲的经济表现。然而我们不能将高增长率看成是理所当然的。要想保持6%的增长率，更不用说达到许多经济体在危机前繁荣时期7%或8%的增长率，就需要持续的改革努力。例如，各国必须继续提高教育质量，改善治理和营商环境；实现基础设施的现代化，确保能源与粮食安全，强化金融中介。Moreover, new risks are emerging. In particular, we are concerned that unless the world takes bold action now, a disastrously warming planet threatens to reverse much of the progress we have experienced.此外，新的风险也在出现。特别是我们担心如果世界不立即采取大胆行动，那么地球的灾难性变暖就有可能使我们取得的大部分进步毁于一旦。Climate change is not just an environmental challenge. It is a fundamental threat to economic development and the fight against poverty.气候变化不只是一项环境挑战，而是对经济发展与反贫困斗争的根本性威胁。According to a recent World Bank report, if we dont act now to curb dangerous emissions, by the end of this century the average global temperature will increase by 4 degrees Celsius, or more than 7 degrees Fahrenheit.根据世界银行最近的一份报告，如果我们不立刻行动起来抑制危险的碳排放，到本世纪末全球平均气温就会上升4摄氏度或者超过7华氏度。In a “4-degree world,” sea levels would rise by as much as 1.5 meters, putting more than 360 million city dwellers at risk. Drought-affected areas would increase from 15 percent of global cropland today to around 44 percent, with sub-Saharan Africa especially hard hit. Extreme weather events would occur with devastating frequency, with untold costs in lives and dollars. And it is the poor, those least responsible for climate change and least able to afford adaptation, who would suffer the most.在“气温上升4度的世界”，海平面会上升1.5米，令3.6亿多城市居民面临风险。受干旱影响地区占全球农田的比例会从目前的15%扩大到44%左右，撒哈拉以南非洲受害最大。极端天气事件会日益频繁，造成难以估量的生命财产损失。而对气候变化所负责任最小、对适应的承受能力最弱的穷人会受害最深。A second crucial challenge for the medium term is the problem of inequality. Often, the mention of inequality causes embarrassed silence. We have to break the taboo of silence on this difficult but critically important issue. Even if rapid economic expansion in the developing world continues, this doesnt mean that everyone will automatically benefit from the development process. Assuring that growth is inclusive is both a moral imperative and a crucial condition for sustained economic development.第二个重要的中期挑战是不平等问题。往往一提到不平等就会带来令人尴尬的沉默。在这个困难但非常重要的问题上，我们必须打破沉默的禁忌。即使发展中国家继续快速发展经济，这并不意味着人人都会自动从发展进程中受益。确保增长具有包容性，即是一项道义责任，也是维持经济发展的一个必要条件。We know that despite the dramatic successes of the last decade, there are still around 1.3 billion people living in extreme poverty, 870 million who go hungry every day, and 6.9 million children under five dying every year.我们知道尽管在过去十年取得了巨大成功，但还有约13亿人生活在极度贫困中，8.7亿人每天食不果腹，每年有690万未满五岁的儿童夭折。So, what conclusions can we draw from this overview of todays global development landscape? I believe there are two key implications for the work of the World Bank Group.因此，我们从对当前全球发展局势的概览中能够得出什么结论？我认为对于世界银行集团的工作有两个关键的含义。Accelerating the End of Extreme Poverty加速终结极度贫困The first is that now is the time to commit to ending extreme poverty. We are at an auspicious moment in history, when the successes of past decades and an increasingly favorable economic outlook combine to give developing countries a chance - for the first time ever - to end extreme poverty within a generation. Our duty now must be to ensure that these favorable circumstances are matched with clarity of purpose and resolute action to realize this historic opportunity.首先是现在到了承诺终结极度贫困的时候。我们正处在一个有利的历史时刻，过去十年的成功与日益向好的经济前景相结合，给了发展中国家一个机会，一个前所未有的机会，即，在一代人时间内终结极度贫困。我们现在的责任必须是确保这些有利条件与明确的决策和坚决的行动相匹配来实现这一历史机遇。We know the end of poverty will not come easily. In the years ahead, as we push toward this goal, the job will become tougher and tougher, because those remaining in poverty will be the hardest to reach.我们知道终结贫困并非轻而易举可以实现的。在未来的岁月里，我们在推进这个目标时，任务会变得越来越重，因为那些仍陷于贫困的人是最难触及的。Some live in densely populated areas in emerging economies, such as the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, which I visited last month and which accounts for 8 percent of the people in the world living in extreme poverty. People in Uttar Pradesh need so much, including improved infrastructure, stronger education systems that prepare students for the work force, and greater inclusion of women and other vulnerable groups in labor markets.有些生活在新兴经济体的人口稠密地区，比如我上月刚刚去过的印度的北方邦，那个地方占世界贫困人口的8%。北方邦的人民有很多需求，包括改善基础设施、加强教育体系帮助学生做好就业准备以及促进妇女及其他弱势人群进入劳动力市场。Others who remain trapped in poverty live in countries caught in cycles of conflict and fragility. A substantial and growing share of poor people live in fragile or conflict-affected states, where both the need for and the obstacles to development tend to be the greatest. Fragile states must be front and center in any agenda to end extreme poverty.其他深陷贫困的人民生活在那些卷入脆弱恶性循环的国家。大量且比例不断增加的贫困人口生活在脆弱或受冲突影响的国家，在这些国家，对发展的需要和阻碍发展的障碍往往都是最大的。脆弱国家必须成为终结极度贫困议程的重中之重。Development in fragile states is difficult, but with creative approaches real progress is possible, as I saw in Afghanistan three weeks ago. For example, were helping train Afghan volunteers to use GPS-enabled smart phones with built-in cameras to monitor irrigation projects in their communities, increasing their sense of ownership. Their photos and reports are now transmitted daily to our main offices in Kabul. The cameras also have a function that James Bond would appreciate: a delete-all-data button, including photos and reports, in case the workers are questioned at a checkpoint. In Afghanistan, despite enduring security challenges and an environment plagued by corruption, many companies today are exploring investment opportunities in mining, energy, and transportation. The international airport is full of commercial aircraft a striking change from a decade ago. And 27 percent of the countrys members of parliament are women an even sharper break with the past.脆弱国家的发展是困难的，但只要采取富于创造性的方式方法，实现真正的进步也是可能的，正如三周前我在阿富汗亲眼所见。例如，我们帮助阿富汗志愿者利用有GPS和拍照功能的智能手机监督他们所在社区的灌溉项目，增强他们的主人翁意识。他们拍的照片和报告现在每天都传到我们在喀布尔的主要办事处。这些相机还有一个詹姆斯邦德会很欣赏的功能：一旦工人在检查站受到质疑，只要按一个按钮就可以删除包括图片和报告在内的所有数据。在阿富汗，尽管长期存在安全问题，尽管有一个腐败泛滥的外部环境，许多公司企业今天仍能利用采矿、能源和交通运输方面的投资机会。国际机场停满了商务航班，这与十年前相比有天壤之别。这个国家的议员中27%是女性，这也代表了与过去的明显决裂。The donor communitys experience in Afghanistan illustrates the high risks of operating in fragile states. But increasingly were seeing how coordinated efforts from the international community and local governments can produce transformative results. Were accumulating lessons on how to achieve security, political stability, and economic development. Next month, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and I will visit the Great Lakes region of eastern Africa together as we cooperate to put these lessons more widely into practice. I want to be clear I have worked in fragile and conflict-affected states for most of my adult life and continuing to strengthen the World Bank Groups work in these countries will be one of my very top priorities.援助界在阿富汗的经验反映出在脆弱国家运作面临的高风险。但我们也越来越清楚地看到，国际社会与地方政府协调努力，就能产生变革性的成果。我们正在积累如何实现安全、政局稳定和经济发展的经验。下月联合国秘书长潘基文和我将访问东非的大湖区，我们合作将这些经验更广泛地运用于实践。我想说明一点我成年后的大部分时间都在脆弱和受冲突影响国家工作，继续加强世界银行集团在这些国家 的工作将是我的首要任务之一。Boosting Shared Prosperity促进共享繁荣In addition to accelerating the end of extreme poverty, I believe the second development lesson for our times is that fighting extreme poverty alone is not enough. We must collectively work to help all vulnerable people everywhere lift themselves well above the poverty line. At the World Bank Group this focus on equity is central to our mission of boosting shared prosperity.除了加快终结极度贫困之外，我认为对我们时代来说第二条发展经验是，单单抗击极度贫困是不够的。我们必须共同努力来帮助世界各地的所有弱势人群摆脱贫困。在世界银行集团，对公平性的关注是我们促进共享繁荣使命的核心。What Ive heard time and again over the past nine months is that forward-looking policymakers around the world are concerned about inequality and exclusion.我在过去九个月里不断听到的一点是全世界具有前瞻性的政策制定者都很担心不平等与排斥的问题。They want to create economic opportunities for their vulnerable citizens, and bring growth to the homes of the poor and the relatively disadvantaged, whether they live on $1 a day, $2 a day, or $10 a day. They want to help those who have only recently escaped extreme poverty secure the resources they need to join the middle class. And they want to ensure that the gains theyve achieved over the past decades are sustainable socially, fiscally, and environmentally.他们希望为本国的弱势公民创造经济机遇，无论他们每天靠1美元、2美元还是10美元为生。他们希望帮助那些最近刚刚摆脱极贫境地的人民获得加入中产阶层行列所需要的资源。他们也希望确保过去数十年取得的成果得以持续在社会、财政和环境各个方面。In Tunisia last January, I met with civil society leaders who were at the forefront of the movement which launched the Arab Spring. Their message was clear: If prosperity is not widely shared, if it is not built on a development process which involves all members of society, especially women and young people, then tensions may again rise to the breaking point.今年1月在突尼斯，我会见了率先发起阿拉伯之春运动的民间社团领导人。他们的信息很明确：如果繁荣不能得到广泛分享，如果繁荣不是建立在社会所有成员尤其是妇女和青年人参与的发展进程的基础上，那么紧张局势可能就会卷土重来随时可能爆发。I also strongly believe that prosperity must be shared not only among individuals, communities, and nations, but also across generations. If we do not act to curb climate change immediately, we will leave our children and grandchildren with an unrecognizable planet.我坚信繁荣必须共享，不仅仅是在个人、社区和国家间共享，而且还要在代际间共享。如果我们不能立即行动起来遏制气候变化，我们就会给子孙后代留下一个面目全非的地球。The World Bank Group is now working on a revamped strategy to significantly strengthen our climate change interventions and help catalyze urgent action among global partners on the scale required. We are exploring a number of bold ideas, including new mechanisms to support and connect carbon markets; politically feasible plans to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies; increased investments in climate-smart agriculture; and innovative partnerships to build clean cities. We are reviewing our work in every sector to ensure that all our projects reflect the pressing need to tackle climate change. A “4-degree world” can still be avoided if we develop a plan and take concerted action that is equal to the challenge we face. To date, I believe our efforts to combat climate change have been too narrowly focused, small scale and uncoordinated. We can do better.世界银行集团正在修订战略，大力加强我们的气候变化干预，发挥催化剂作用促使全球合作伙伴以所需的规模紧急行动起来。我们在探索各种大胆的想法，包括建立支持和连接碳市场的新机制；提倡取消化石燃料补贴的政治上可行的计划；增加对气候智能型农业的投资；缔结建设清洁城市的创新型伙伴关系。我们在审议我们各个部门的工作，以确保我们所有的项目都反映出应对气候变化的迫切需要。 “气温升高4度的世界”是能够避免的。只要我们针对我们面临的挑战制定相应计划并采取一致行动。截至目前，我认为我们为遏制气候变化所做努力的关注点过于狭窄、规模太小而且缺乏协调。我们能够做得更好。Two Goals to Guide the World Bank Group指导世界银行集团的两大目标Let me now talk more specifically about how the World Bank Group is mobilizing to seize the opportunity to end extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity.现在我来具体谈谈世界银行集团如何动员起来抓住机遇终结极度贫困和促进共享繁荣。Were introducing two goals to guide our strategy. These are not goals which the World Bank Group itself will achieve. They are goals which our partners our 188 member countries will achieve, with the support of the entire global development community.我们提出了指导我们战略的两大目标。这些并不是世界银行集团本身要实现的目标，而是我们希望我们的合作伙伴我们的188个成员国在全球发展界的支持下将要实现的目标。The first goal is to end extreme poverty by 2030. With the end of extreme poverty within our grasp, we want to set an aggressive timeline to focus our efforts and maintain a sense of urgency.我们的团队认为要取得这一非同寻常的成果，必须具备三个条件。The date of 2030 is highly ambitious. If anyone doubts it, consider that the first Millennium Development Goal was to halve absolute poverty over a period of 25 years. To reach the 2030 goal, we must halve global pover