凯雷对于金融服务业看法.ppt

Overview:FinancialServicesIndustry-WhatWentWrongforadescriptionofsuchmanagementfeesandcarriedinterest,pleaseseethefinalconfidentialprivateplacementmemorandum.WhileCarlylebelievesthatprojectedreturnsforunrealizedinvestmentsarebasedonassumptionsandvaluationmethodologiesthatarereasonableunderthecircumstances,theactualrealizedreturnsonCarlylesunrealizedinvestmentswilldependon,amongotherfactors,futureoperatingresults,thevalueoftheassetsandmarketconditionsatthetimeofdisposition,anyrelatedtransactioncostsandthetimingandmannerofsale,allofwhichmaydifferfromtheassumptionsonwhichthevaluationsusedinthepriorperformancedatacontainedhereinarebased.Accordingly,theactualrealizedreturnontheseunrealizedinvestmentsmaydiffermateriallyfromtheprojectedreturnsindicatedherein.InvestorsareencouragedtocontactCarlylerepresentativestodiscusstheproceduresandmethodologiesusedtocalculatetheinvestmentreturnsandotherinformationprovidedherein,andmayuponrequestobtainanillustrationoftheeffectoffees,expensesandotherchargesinthegrossIRRspresented.Past,targetedorprojectedperformanceisnotnecessarilyindicativeoffutureresultsandtherecanbenoassurancethattargetedorprojectedreturnswillbeachievedorthattheFundwillachievecomparableresults.ReferencestoportfoliocompaniesarepresentedtoillustratetheapplicationofCarlylesinvestmentprocessonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredarecommendationofanyparticularsecurityorportfoliocompany.Informationaboutrecommendationsoverthelastyearisavailableuponrequest.Itshouldnotbeassumedthatrecommendationsmadeinthefuturewillbeprofitableorwillequaltheperformanceofpastrecommendations.Certaininformationcontainedinthispresentation,includingthevaluesgivenforsomeassets,isnon-public,proprietaryandhighlyconfidentialinformation.Accordingly,byacceptingandusingthispresentation,youwillbedeemedtoagreenottodiscloseanyinformationcontainedhereinexceptasmayberequiredbylaw.Inaddition,certaininformationcontainedinthispresentationhasbeenobtainedfrompublishedandnon-publishedsourcespreparedbyotherparties,whichincertaincaseshavenotbeenupdatedthroughthedatehereof.Whilesuchinformationisbelievedtobereliableforthepurposeusedinthispresentation,CarlyledoesnotassumeanyresponsibilityfortheaccuracyorcompletenessofsuchinformationandsuchinformationhasnotbeenindependentlyverifiedbyCarlyle.Exceptwhereotherwiseindicatedherein,theinformationprovidedinthispresentationisbasedonmattersastheyexistasofthedateofpreparationandnotasofanyfuturedate,andwillnotbeupdatedorotherwiserevisedtoreflectinformationthatsubsequentlybecomesavailable,orcircumstancesexistingorchangesoccurringafterthedatehereof.Certaininformationcontainedhereinconstitutes“forward-lookingstatements,”whichcanbeidentifiedbytheuseoftermssuchas“may”,“will”,“should”,“expect”,“anticipate”,“project”,“estimate”,“intend”,“continue,”“target”or“believe”(orthenegativesthereof)orothervariationsthereonorcomparableterminology.Duetovariousrisksanduncertainties,actualeventsorresultsoractualperformanceoftheFundmaydiffermateriallyfromthosereflectedorcontemplatedinsuchforward-lookingstatements.Asaresult,investorsshouldnotrelyonsuchforward-lookingstatementsinmakingtheirinvestmentdecisions.Norepresentationorwarrantyismadeastofutureperformanceorsuchforward-lookingstatements.,ExecutiveSummary,WhatHappened?WhatRoleWillPrivateEquityPlay?,I.WhatHappened?ACrisisbyManyNames,August2007,Today,ToCome,MoneyMarketFundsAutoLoansCreditCardLendingCommercialRealEstateLiquidity,andOneUnderlyingCommonTheme,LEHAIGWaMu,WachoviaHypoREFortisBTopbankstradedontheNYSEandNASDAQ,$,StillinEarlyInnings,Industryhastakenlessthan50%oflossesestimatedbymostresponsibleanalystsIMF$0.9tril(1)Pimco1.0(2)FederalReserve1.2(3)Paulson&Co.1.3(4),InternationalMonetaryFund,“GlobalFinancialStabilityReport,”4/08BillGrossofPimco.“InvestmentOutlook:Mooooooo!”7/08FederalReserveBoard,“ForeignExposuretoAsset-BackedSecuritiesofU.S.Origin”8/08Bloomberg,“Paulson&Co.SaysWritedownsMayReach$1.3Trillion,”6/08,Source:GoldmanSachsResearch.Dataprovided9/26/08,LossesRealizedTo-date,LossEstimates,(,figuresin$bil),U.S.,Europe,Restof,world,Total,Brokers,93,76,1,170,Banks,97,109,14,221,SpecialtyFinance,37,-,-,37,Insurance&Asset,Mgr,39,7,-,45,Total,266,191,15,473,HousingMarketWeaknessToPersist,DurationofHousingDowntownfromPeaktoTroughasMeasuredbyHousingStarts,WithDemandDroppingoffFasterthanProduction,theNumberofVacantUnitsBallooned,?,Housingmarketstillmateriallyweakduetosignificantover-supplyResetshaveyettoimpactnumbers(2009/2010issue)norhasthefullimpactofforeclosuresbeenbuiltintosupplyprojectionsVacant-for-salehomesareneararecord-highshareofthehousingstockForeclosuresattheirhighestlevelssincerecordkeepingbeganin1974&likelytoincrease(1)Mortgagerateshavenotfallen,contributingtocontinuedsoftness,Source:U.S.CensusBureau.DataasofJuly2008,(1)NourielRoubini,“ProspectsfortheU.S.andGlobalEconomyin2008andImplicationsforFinancialMarkets”4/08,%,Note:Newhomesalesandhousingcompletionsincludesingle-familyunitsonly.Sources:U.S.CensusBureau,NewResidentialConstruction&HousingVacancySurvey,%Change2005-2007,HousingCompletions,VacantHeldOffMarket,VacantforSale,NewHomeSales,GovernmentInterventionisIncreasing,Macromeasures:monetary&fiscalpolicyFedFunds:5.25%to2.0%DiscountRate5.75%to2.25%Bushstimulusplan/taxrebate:$168BLiquidityNew/expandingliquidityfacilitiesExpandingcollateralcategoriesRegulatoryPaulsonPlanAdhocresponsesBearStearnsFannieMae/FreddieMacAIGWaMuWachovia,Purchase$700BoftroubledassetsRemovetoxic/illiquidassetsfromsystemFocusonresidentialandcommercialrealestateMBSandwholeloansExpandingtoincludeseveraladditionalassetclassesPricingmechanismwillbekeyReverseauctionlikelytoolPrimarilytargetingUSfinancialfirms,PreviousActions,ProposedTreasuryBailout(TARP),AdditionalMeasures,MoneymarketfundguaranteeShort-sellingbanIncreasingPEownershiplimitstoattractadditionalcapitalintobanks,UnintendedConsequences,GSEsTakeoverLehmanBrothersWaMuTARP,Whiledollarhasbeenstrongintheshortterm,havewecreatedalongertermproblembydoublingthesizeofthenationaldebt?Byfocusingonavoidingthe“moralhazard,”didweinadvertentlycreatearunonthemoneymarketfunds?EradicationofbankcompanydebtforcedWachoviatransactionandincreasedcostoffundingsystem-wideTobedetermined,butoutlookisnotgood,LandscapeoftheFinancialServicesIndustryWillLookMarkedlyDifferent,Financialservicesindustrywillunwind,slowlyandpainfullyInvestmentBanks,SpecialtyFinanceCompaniesandRatingAgencieshavethemosttoloseNon-traditionalconsumerborrowingwilllargelydisappearWholesalefundingmodelsmaynevercomebackSectorwillshrinktobeapproximately10%oftheS&P500DisintermediationwillallowthebankingindustrytogrowConsumerandcommercialfinanceRateswillriseFlighttoqualitywill(has)force(d)highlevelofconsolidationHeightenedlevelsofreceivershipThosewithoutdifferentiationwillmerge,II.WhatRoleWillPrivateEquityPlay?,AuniqueroleintherecapitalizationoftheindustryHighvolatility/lowtransparencylimitstheroleofthepublicmarketsEquivalentofbuyingalotteryticketabsentanabilitytocompletesignificantduediligencePrivateequityhasthecapacity,competencyandmandatetoundertakeduediligence&evaluate/structuretransactionsHowever,limitedfinancialservicesexpertisecurrentlyexistsintheindustry,PrivateEquitytoPlayaUniqueRole,Supply/demandimbalancetoallowforoutsizedreturnsIndustrylikelytoneedcloseto$500bilinnewequityTop3PEfundsdedicatedtoFinancialServiceshavelessthan$20bilincapacityWhileco-investmentbyLPscouldincreaseavailablecapitalby2-3x,lackofavailable/advisableleveragelimitsavailablecapitalShouldallowPEtobethoughtfulanddemanding(hasnotbeenthecasetodate)Importantly,PEshopsabletoinstillconfidence(inadditiontoinjectingcapital)willbeabletochargedearlyfortheircapital,PrivateEquitytoPlayaUniqueRole,AnatomyofsuccessfulinvestmentsrelativelystraightforwardRecapitalizationmustsolvetheproblemsubsequentdilutiontooexpensive/onerousInordertoensurethatnewcapitalsolvestheproblem,adequateduediligencemustbeperformedConvincingcounterparties(investors,customers,regulators&otherliquidityproviders)thatproblemhasbeenfixedasimportantasactuallyfixingtheproblemWhichwillplaceapremiumoncertaintypesofcapitaloverothersInadditiontocapital&confidence,responsibleprivateequityshouldbeabletobringotherelementstobear,includingmanagement,However,NewApproachIsRequired,TraditionalapprovalbasedonindustrialexperiencesimplydoesnotworkYouvegottodotheworkMaybeborin