项目组合管理训练(英文版)(ppt 38页).ppt

ProjectPortfolioManagementAnIntroduction李俊伟November2002Beijing,项目管理者联盟,MYPM.NET,2,Content,EmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques,3,TheEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement,1952,ModernPortfolioTheory(MPT),HarryMarkowitz,JournalofFinance,PortfolioSelection1990,HarryMarkowitzsharedNobelPrize,dominantapproachusedtomanageriskandreturnwithinfinancialmarkets1981,F.WarrenMcFarian,PortfolioApproachtoInformationSystems,HBR,toemployarisk-basedapproachtotheselectionandmanagementofITprojects.1990s,abroaderuseofideasofportfoliomanagement1998,JohnThorp,TheInformationParadox.Portfoliomanagementwasusedtomanageriskandmaximizereturnalonganumberofdimensions.Present,portfoliomanagementascentralelementsofgoodinvestmentmanagement,4,PortfolioManagement,theoverallpicture,Focus(StrategicPlanning),Source:PMSolutions,PortfolioManagement,DianneBridges,Select(PortfolioManagement),Manage(ProjectManagement),5,Content,EmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques,6,TheOldPhilosophyaboutPortfolio,Dontputallyoureggsinonebasket.,Riskaversionseemstobeaninstinctivetraitinhumanbeings.,7,ReturnandRiskinFinancialMarket,expectedreturn,standarddeviation(%),capitalappreciation,growthofincome,061218243036,20181614121086420,income,inflation,T-bills,intermediate-termgovernmentbonds,long-termgovernmentbonds,long-termcorporatebonds,largecompanystocks,smallcompanystocks,stabilityofprincipal,8,TheRoleofCombiningSecurities,Theexpectedreturnofaportfolioisaweightedaverageofthecomponentexpectedreturns.,TheRoleofCombiningSecurities,10,T.,10,TheRoleofCombiningSecurities,expectedreturn,risk,betterperformance,Aportfoliodominatesallothersifnootherequallyriskyportfoliohasahigherexpectedreturn,orifnoportfoliowiththesameexpectedreturnhaslessrisk.,Thepointofdiversificationistoachieveagivenlevelofexpectedreturnwhilebearingtheleastpossiblerisk.,11,TheEfficientFrontier:OptimumDiversificationofRiskyAssets,expectedreturn,risk(standarddeviationofreturns),impossibleportfolios,dominatedportfolios,efficientfrontier,TheoptimalcombinationsresultinlowestlevelofriskforagivenreturnTheoptimaltrade-offisdescribedastheefficientfrontier,12,TheEfficientFrontiervsNaiveDiversification,Asportfoliosizeincreases,totalportfoliorisk,onaverage,declines.Afteracertainpoint,however,themarginalreductioninriskfromtheadditionofanothersecurityismodest.,totalrisk,Non-diversifiablerisk,numberofsecurities,Naivediversificationistherandomselectionofportfoliocomponentswithoutconductinganyserioussecurityanalysis.,13,RiskReductionwithDiversification,14,Marketorsystematicrisk:riskrelatedtothemacroeconomicfactorormarketindexUnsystematicorfirmspecificrisk:risknotrelatedtothemacrofactorormarketindexTotalrisk=Systematic+Unsystematic,ComponentsofRisk,15,Two-SecurityPortfolioswithDifferentCorrelations,16,Relationshipdependsoncorrelationcoefficient-1.0+1.0Thesmallerthecorrelation,thegreatertheriskreductionpotentialIf=+1.0,noriskreductionispossible,PortfolioRisk/Return,CorrelationEffects,17,StructuringaPortfolio:AssetAllocation,individualchoiceassetclassmixinvestmentresults,18,Content,EmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques,19,Whatisprojectportfoliomanagement,PortfolioManagementistheprojectselectionprocessandinvolvesidentifyingopportunities:assessingtheorganizationalfit;analyzingthecosts,benefits,andrisks;anddevelopingandselectingaportfolio.Theartofprojectportfoliomanagementis:doingtherightthing,selectingtherightmixofprojectsandadjustingastimeevolvesandcircumstancesunfold.,20,PortfolioManagementis:,DefininggoalsandobjectivesclearlyarticulatewhattheportfolioisexpectedtoachieveUnderstanding,accelerating,andmakingtradeoffsdeterminehowmuchtoinvestinonethingasopposedtosomethingelseIdentifying,eliminating,minimizing,anddiversifyingriskselectamixofinvestmentsthatwillavoidunduerisk,willnotexceedacceptablerisktolerancelevels,andwillspreadrisksacrossprojectsandinitiativestominimizeadverseimpactsMonitoringportfolioperformanceunderstandtheprogressthattheportfolioismakingtowardtheachievementofthegoalsandobjectivesAchievingadesiredobjectivehavetheconfidencethatthedesiredoutcomewilllikelybeachievedgiventheaggregateofinvestmentsthataremade,21,PortfolioManagementisNot,Doingaseriesofprojectspecificcalculationsandanalyses,suchasreturnoninvestment,benefit-costanalysis,netpresentvalue,paybackperiod,rateofreturn,andthenadjustingthemalltoaccountforrisk.theseareprojectspecific.Collectingafter-the-marketinformationonprojectstoproduceareportthattheorganizationhopeswillsatisfysomeorganizationalreportingrequirement.,22,ThebenefitsofPortfolioManagement,HavingastructureinplacetoselecttherightprojectsandimmediatelyremovethewrongprojectsPlacingresourceswhereitmatters,reducingwastefulspendingLinkingportfoliodecisionstostrategicdirectionandbusinessgoalsEstablishinglogic,reasoning,andasenseoffairnessbehindportfoliodecisionsEstablishingownershipamongstthestaffbyinvolvementattherightlevels,23,Content,EmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques,24,ProjectPortfolioManagement,Process&Technique,FourstepsProjectEvaluationMatrixEvaluationCriteriaExamples,25,Step1:DefinethePortfolio,First,establishtheoverallportfoliomission.Thismissionstatementwillbeusedtoinitiallydeterminewhatprojectsareinoroutoftheportfolio.Themissionstatementcanbesimple,like:TheIntranetP.,26,Step2:GathertheProjects,Now,gatheralltheprojectstogetherthatyouthinkmightbeintheportfolio.Thismaynotbethelistyoualreadyhave.Someprojects,includingduplicateefforts,maybeunderwayinotherpartsoftheorganization.,27,Step3:BeginWeeding,Oncetheprojectlistisestablished,beginweedingthelistdown.Removeprojectsthat:Areduplicateefforts.Hereisanopportunitytosavemoneybypoolingtwoormoreeffortsintoasingleproject.Donotmeetthemissionarea.Someprojectsmaybeunderyourwingbutdonotfitinthemissionarea.Removethemfromyourportfolioandplacethemelsewhere.,28,Step4:BeginEvaluating,Oncetheportfoliolistisset,beginevaluatingeachprojecttodeterminewhattheoverallportfoliowilllooklike.Usingthefour-quadrantmatrixhere,evaluatetheprojectsagainsttwomajorcriteria:Whatarethepotentialrisksinimplementingthisproject?Whatarethepotentialbenefitsinimplementingthisproject?,29,ProjectEvaluationMatrix,30,UsingtheMatrix,Thematrixisusedasascoringtooltomapprojectsagainsttheevaluatedlevelofriskandtheevaluatedpotentialbeneficialimpactofaproject.Projectsareevaluatedonbothriskandbenefitfromlowtohighusingaseriesofquestionsandscores.Projectsarethenevaluatedintheworksheetanddecisionsmadeforinclusionandbalancingtheportfolio.,31,MatrixDecisionRegions,Projectstoremovefromtheportfolio,Projectstokeepintheportfolio,32,EvaluationCriteria,TheEvaluationMatrixusestwobasiccriteria:RiskandBenefit.Fivesampleriskareas:RiskofCompletionOnTime(ScheduleRisk)RiskofManagingMultipleOrganizations(OrganizationalRisk)RiskofTechnologiesUsedfortheApplication(TechnologicalRisk)RiskofNotProcee