风险管理与保险课件2

TheBackgroundofRiskandUncertaintyinconstructionProjects,工程项目风险管理与保险,双语课,Outline,IntroductionRiskandDecisionRiskandPeoplesRiskinPropertyProjectsRiskandContractsRiskTypesRiskManagementProcedureRiskandUncertainty,Introduction-WhatisRisk?,Thinkfirstof:,Why“Placeyourwaterlinelow”?,WhatisRisk?,Infact,riskcanbeappliedtoeveryhumandecision-makingactionwhichtheconsequencesareuncertainty.Theprocessofdecision-makingcanbeintuitive,pragmaticordogmatic,rationalandscientific.Weaimatthetechniquesforquantifyingriskasanaidtodecision-making.,RiskManagementisnotpredictingthefuture;atoolaboutunderstandingprojectandmakingbetterdecision.TwoattitudeAGAP:AllGoesAccordingtoPlanWHIF:WhatHappensIf,RiskDecisionMaking,RiskandDecisions,Whathappenswhengroupsmakedecision?Whenagroupofpeoplediscussarisk-takingproblem,theyusuallyarriveatariskiersolutionthantheaverageoftheirownpreviousindividualsolution.why?,Intuition,BiasandIntuitionExpertsandExperienceRulesofThumbMakingaModel,ProgrammedDecisions,Decisionsthatwererepeatableandhighlystructuredareprogrammed.Thesesortofdecisionsaremoreamenabletocomputermodeling.,Somebasiccomponentsofdecision-making,ObjectivesChoicesThefactorswhichmustbetakenintoaccountStrategiesTechnologyAttitudetoriskofthedecision-makerPreferences(shortandlongtime)Recognitionofbias,RiskandPeoplesinconstructionprocess,Clients-PublicSector,Centralgovernmentbuilding,roads,dams,bridges,sewersandotherengineeringworks;Universities,highereducationbuildings;Hospitals；Nationalindustries；Localauthorities;Housing,PrivateSector,OwnershipManufactures,Retailers,Servicecompanies;Householders;Privateinfrastructureoperators;Churches,Charities;Utilitycompanies.,Investment/PropertydealingBanks;PensionFunds;Insurancecompany;PropertyBonds;Individuals;Developers/Housebuilders.,Clientneedshavechanged,Forexample:MoreFlexibleTheyallowdesigntobeincompleteatthetenderstage,andtheyallowclientstochangetheirmindsduringtheconstructionphase.Allthishastobetemperedwithrealitybecausetherewillalwaysbeinherentconflictbetweencertaintyandflexibility.,Consultants,职业责任:职业回报和担负的风险不成比例勘查设计师、土地规划工程师、环境评价师、安全评价师设计师（建筑、结构、安装、水电、暖通、装饰）造价工程师监理工程师职业工程管理人员（建造师）,RiskofInvestmentInProperty,HighRiskInvestment:OneclassiccaseisthatpensionfunddevotedintoPropertyissmallandfalling(from21%in1981to7%in1991);Ittakesalongtimetocompleteapropertytransaction;beforeoccupancy,thereisonlyriskandnoreturn.Butstocksareliquid.Itwillbeinfluentbycomplicatedfactors.,RiskandContracting,Forexample:Contractingintimesofhighinflationandwithafixedprice.Traditionalrelationshipbetweenthecontractorsandclientshavebeenchanged,whichhasincreasedtheburdenofidentifyingwhereresponsibilitylieswhensomethinggoeswrong.,GeneralRiskTypes,Unforeseenadversegroundcondition,Forcemajeure-e.g.Typhoon,Techniquematters,鸟巢卸载,法国米洛大桥施工,Politicalrisk,利比亚内战,RiskManagementProcedure,风险能否被接受？哪些风险是可以接受风险？,风险来自何方？风险事件可归于哪类？,风险事件后果多大？工程中哪一部分会遭受此风险？风险发生可能性有多大？,Case-RiskMatrix,Shouldnotbeignored,Shouldnotbeignored,Shouldnotbeignored,Case-Considering“Hazard”,IndesignofTheThreeGorgesDam,theattackhazardfromnuclearbombwasconsideredthoughtheoccurrenceprobabilityislow.,Case-Considering“Expected”,Inprocessofconstructionproject,thematerialwastecanbeexpectedandshouldbecontrolledeffectively.,Case-RiskManagement,SeismicDesignofBuildinginJapan,RiskandUncertainty,Riskexistswhenadecisionisexpressedintermsofarangeofpossibleoutcomesandwhenknownprobabilitycanbeattachedtotheoutcome.,KnownriskKnownunknownsUnknownunknownsInthenormalconstructionprojects,Uncertaintyexistwhenthereismorethanonepossibleoutcomeofacourseofactionbuttheprobabilityofeachoutcomeisunknown.,DealingUncertainty:LookingatPasttoForecastFuture,Therearetwostagestothisprocess:Weinferwhatthefuturewillbelikebeforeourproposedaction.weinferanyeffectsouractionmighthave.,TheForecastProcess,input,Forecastmethods,output,InsightDataAssumption,KnowledgeSkill/experienceIntuitionPrejudiceBias,QuantitativeQualitative,Someimportantconsideration,DataavailabilityVariabil