用户友好型气候影响与风险评估情景

1、Roger Street, 技术指导,中国适应气候变化项目风险评估研讨会,Production of user-friendly climate scenarios for impact and risk assessments 用户友好型气候影响与风险评估情景,Wednesday, 03rd March 2010 2010年3月3日星期三,Beijing, China 中国北京,Towards “User-friendly” Scenarios走近用户友好情景,Understanding what is and will be available earlier presentations

2、了解现在及将来可用信息之前介绍 Understanding what is needed and can be delivered this presentation 了解所需与可供本次介绍 Requirement for informed engagement involving the providers and the users of the climate scenarios 要求供应商与气候情景用户保持知情参与 Recognition that what is needed is information to inform the assessments 认识到需要为评估提供信息

3、Temporal (30-year, baseline) and spatial (what resolution?) scales 时间（30-年，基点）与空间（分辨率）范围 Averaging periods (monthly, seasonal, other)? 平均周期（月、季、其他）？ Variables?变量？ Recognition that it is also about accessibility (presentation) and utility (guidance),Predict, Optimise and Relax预测、优化与放松,Focus is on the

4、 climate and projected change 聚焦气候与预期变化 Often assumes that we are adapted to “today” 时常假定我们是在适应“今天” Follows a linear model:遵循线性模式气候预测 Focus is on getting the climate “right” uncertainty remains a barrier to decision making “彻底明白”气候不确定因素会对决策构成障碍 Tendency for decision and policy makers to hold off awa

5、iting better climate information and there is a need to start over each time there is new projections 决策者与政策制定者有这样一种倾向，他们会延时决策以等待更佳的气候信息，因此，每当有新的预期出现，就要从头开始。,Assess, Adjust and Review评估、调整与回顾,Focus is on understanding the climate (and other) risks 焦点在于认识气候（及其他）风险 Assumes that “today” may need some f

6、urther adaptation (benefits the day job) 假定“今天”就可能需要更进一步的适应 （有益于当前工作） Follows a recursive model 遵循递归模式 1.确定问题和目标 2.确立决策标准 3. 评估风险 4.识别可选方案 5. 评估可选方案 6.决策 7.实施决策 8.监控 Uncertainty and risk are made explicit and addressed and can be communicated明确不确定因素与风险，确保其得到相应关注并相互传达 Allows for “adjustments” as bene

7、fits and changes in risk are realised随着风险收益的实现与变化的发生，要允许出现“调整”,Different information needed需要获取多种信息,Prior to using climate information need a clear understanding of the system of interest (programmes, policies, systems, infrastructure, etc.): 在使用气候信息之前需对相关利益体系有一个清楚的了解（项目组、政策、体制、基础设施等） Sensitivities,

8、 thresholds, nature of vulnerability and capacity to adapt 敏感性、准入门槛、脆弱性本质及适应能力 Other risks and drivers of change need for socio-economic information 其他风险与变化驱动需要获取社会经济信息 The existing adaptation deficit historical observations and trends 现有适应的不足之处历来评价与历史趋势 This understanding will also help define the

9、climate information needed to support the assessment 这一了解同样有助于界定可用于支持评估的气候信息,Different information needed需要获取多种信息,There is not a single best practice approach to using climate scenarios使用气候情景的最优方法并不唯一 Need to understand how the scenarios can and cannot be used and consider how to exploit the scenari

10、os for the intended purpose examples of good practice and inappropriate uses 有必要理解气候情景在何种情况下（不）可用，并考虑如何达到预期使用目的举例说明正反两种情形 The level of detail needed depends on the intended use key findings, maps and graphs, data and analytical tools 预计使用目的决定细节层次需求关键性结论、地图与图表、数据与分析工具 Having different levels of detai

11、l can inform the use of the climate scenarios focus on periods/areas of particular interest从不同的细节层次可以看出气候情景的应用关注特定的利益相关周期/地域,Key Findings 主要产出,Provide clear statements of the projected changes based on the climate scenarios 基于气候情景，清楚表述预期变化 Focus on climate variables or interests that are of particul

12、ar interest (area, sector, or time)关注特定利益相关的气候变量或利益体（地域、领域或时间） Can introduce the uncertainty associated with different scenarios 可介入与不同情景相连的不确定性因素 Can be used for communication and further engagement 可用于沟通交流与进一步接触,Examples: 例如： Warmer and wetter winters, with hotter and drier summers冬季变暖变湿；夏季变热变干 Th

13、e summer mean daily maximum temperature is projected to increase from 4.8C to 8.4C, with a wider range of uncertainty of 1.2C to 10.6C.据预测，夏季日常最高温度将从4.8C上升到8.4C，如果考虑更多不确定因素的话，这一数字可以1.2C到 10.6C There is a projected two-fold increase in the frequency of summer drought by the 2050s.据预测，2050年夏季干旱的发生频率会增

14、长一倍。,Maps, Images and Tables 地图、图像与表格,Provide a spatial image of the projected changes at a single time period understanding geographic areas of interest 提供预期变化在某单一时间段的空间图了解利益相关的地理区域 Provide an image of the changes over time 提供历时变化图 Can be for climate variables or derived variables (growing degree d

15、ays, drought indices, etc.) 用于描述气候变量或衍生变量（度日变长、干旱指数等） Can be used to identify areas or times of interest, as well as effective communications tools 用于识别相关地域或时间段，确定有效交流工具,Need for Guidance and Case Studies需要提供指导与个案研究,A reference guide on the use of the climate scenarios 指导如何使用气候情景的参考册 An exploration

16、of their use, including sharing lessons learned 如何探索气候情景的应用，包括共享学到的经验 An evolving resource based on experience gained and guidance added to meet evolving needs and address new climate information 不断扩充的资源获取经验、加强指导以满足不断演进的需求、应对新的气候信息 Focus on using the climate scenarios to support the assessment proce

17、ss one resource used along with others as part of the assessment process 致力于用气候情景支持评估进程与其他资源一起成为评估进程的一部分 Case studies depicting how the climate scenarios have been used 个案研究描述气候情景如何应用 Need for particular guidance that also identifies inappropriate uses 同时需要有能够指出不当使用方法的特殊指导,Accessibility 可及性,To meet

18、a diverse user community 满足不同客户群体,Need for online resource and hard copy 需要在线资源与硬拷贝,User-Provider Engagement Throughout用户供应商全程参与,Informed engagement is critical to ensuring that climate scenarios are useable, fit-for-purpose, and that their use is based on sound science 知情参与对于保证气候情景的功效与合用来说十分重要，这些功能

19、的实现都基于对科学有一个良好把握 Needed as part of scenario development, presentation and use (guidance) 气候情景的发展、演示与使用（指导）都需要这种参与 Mechanisms that have shown to be useful: 表明有效的机制： User-Provider Advisory Panel用户供应商顾问团 Communities of users specific needs and sharing experience 用户社区特殊需要、经验共享 Workshops sharing knowledg

20、e and experience/training 研讨会知识、经验共享/培训 Online helpdesk and frequently asked questions在线帮助台与常见问题 Online users forum 在线用户论坛,New barrier, retain Thames Barrier, raise defences 新建堤坝、保持泰晤士水闸 、加高防御工事,Raise Defences 加筑堤坝,New barrier, raise defences 新建堤坝、加高防御工事,New barrage新堰坝,Existing system 现有系统,Improve T

21、hames Barrier and raise d/s defences 改进泰晤士水闸，加高d/s防御工事,Over-rotate Thames Barrier and restore interim defences 过旋泰晤闸 ，重建临时工士水事,Flood storage, improve Thames Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defences 蓄洪，改进泰晤士水闸，加高u/s 与d/s防御工事,Flood storage, over rotate Thames Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defences 蓄洪，过旋泰晤士水闸，加高u/s 与d/s防御工事,Flood storage, restore interim defences 蓄洪，重建临时防御工事,Fit-for-Purpose now and in the future眼前合用与未来合用,Move from time-defined to risk-defined assessments 由实时评估到风险评估,Opportunity to Input输入机会,Expressing your needs for Climate Scenarios 说出您对