ASCENDASHOSPITALITYTRUST(ASHT.SP)：DOWNGRADETON(V)：LIMITEDUPSIDEAFTERSTRONGRUN0130

1、0.98 0.99 7.1 company report fig real estate equity singapore abc global research neutral (v) target price (sgd) share price (sgd) forecast dividend yield (%) potential return (%)6.1 ascendas hospitality trust (asht sp) note: potential return equals the percentage difference between the current shar

2、e price and the target price, plus the forecast dividend yield. downgrade to n(v): limited upside after strong run mar hsbc dpu dividend yield performance 2012 a 2013 e 4.6 7.3 6.9%* 7.4% 1m 3m 2014 e 7.6 7.7% 12m 3qfy12/13 revenue misses but dpu in line with our numbers underperformance from ashts

3、australian hotels and a absolute (%) relative (%) 6.4 3.9 9.7 2.5 weaker jpy contribute to revenue miss note: (v) = volatile (please see disclosure appendix) *annualised dividend yield downgrading to n(v) from ow(v) after strong share price performance; tp unchanged at sgd0.98 30 january 2013 david

4、choo*, cfa property analyst the hongkong and shanghai banking corporation limited, singapore branch +65 66580612 .sg pratik burman ray*, cfa senior property analyst the hongkong and shanghai banking corporation limited, singapore branch +65 66580611 .sg shweta arora* associate bangalore view hsbc gl

5、obal research at: http:/ *employed by a non-us affiliate of hsbc securities (usa) inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to finra regulations issuer of report: the hongkong and shanghai banking corporation limited, singapore branch mica (p) 038/04/2012 mica (p) 063/04/2012 mica (p) 206/01/201

6、2 disclaimer company on lookout for further acquisition opportunities: the acquisition of ibis beijing was completed in mid-december 2012, earlier than the late january completion we had been assuming. management commented that it continues to actively look for acquisition opportunities in places li

7、ke singapore, hong kong, japan, china, and south korea. downgrading asht to n(v) after strong share price performance; tp remains at sgd0.98: asht has outperformed its peers as well as the reit sector in the last five months and valuations now look relatively less attractive. we have reduced our fy1

8、2/13 dpu estimate by 2% but have raised our fy13/14-14/15 dpu estimates by 1-2% as we lowered our cost of debt assumptions slightly. our target price, based on the average of our ddm and rnav-based valuations (overlaid with our qualitative premium-discount framework), is unchanged at sgd0.98 (5% bel

9、ow consensus). a positive catalyst for the stock could be the announcement of a value accretive acquisition while a negative catalyst for the stock could be an adverse movement in the aud, jpy or cny. index straits times index enterprise value (sgdm) 1,199 index level 3,269 free float (%) 71 ric ash

10、p.si market cap (usdm) 645 bloomberg asht sp market cap (sgdm) 800 source: hsbcsource: hsbc 03 ascendas hospitality trust (asht sp) real estate 30 january 2013 financials downgrade to n(v) from ow(v) the average of our ddm-based valuation and estimated fy13 rnav is sgd1.03 per share. applying a 5% d

11、iscount based on our premium/discount framework due to ashts smaller market cap, we arrive at a 12-month target 03-sep-1224-sep-1215-oct-1205-nov -1226-nov -1217-dec-1207-jan-1328-jan-13 ashtcdreitfehtartfstrei source: bloomberg *rebased to 100 as of 3 september 2012 5 ascendas hospitality trust (as

12、ht sp) real estate 30 january 2013 price at sgd0.98 per unit. including prospective distributions of 7.1sgd cents, this target price implies a potential return of 6% for asht. under the hsbc research model, the neutral rating band for singapore stocks with a volatility indicator is defined as the hu

13、rdle rate of 9.0% (risk free rate plus risk premium), plus or minus 10ppt. as ashts potential return is now 6.1%, we downgrade the stock to neutral (v) from overweight (v). potential return equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, including the forecast

14、dividend yield when indicated. risks downside risks visitor arrivals and hotel revpars have historically been closely linked to the health of the global/regional economy. negative macro or tourism sector related shocks (e.g. terrorism, pandemics, fuel price spikes, etc.) could result in weaker-than-

15、 estimated hotel operating performance. additionally, asht receives its income in a variety of currencies (e.g. aud, jpy, rmb). adverse movements in any of these currencies relative to the sgd may have a negative impact on ashts distributable income. other downside risks are competition from other h

16、otels, overpaying for acquisitions and higher interest rates. upside risks a strong pickup in ashts australian hotel performance could result in higher distributions and capital values for the trust. value accretive acquisitions are another upside risk. we have not factored in any acquisitions into

17、our forward estimates. 6 abc ascendas hospitality trust (asht sp) real estateabc 30 january 2013 disclosure appendix analyst certification the following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject s

18、ecurity(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: tze hui, dav

19、id choo and pratik burman ray important disclosures equities: stock ratings and basis for financial analysis hsbc believes that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions, which depend largely on individual circumstances such as the investors exist

20、ing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations. given these differences, hsbc has two principal aims in its equity research: 1) to identify long-term investment opportunities based on particular themes or ideas that may affect the future earnings or cash flows of companies on a 12 month time

21、horizon; and 2) from time to time to identify short-term investment opportunities that are derived from fundamental, quantitative, technical or event-driven techniques on a 0-3 month time horizon and which may differ from our long-term investment rating. hsbc has assigned ratings for its long-term i

22、nvestment opportunities as described below. this report addresses only the long-term investment opportunities of the companies referred to in the report. as and when hsbc publishes a short-term trading idea the stocks to which these relate are identified on the website at details of these short-term

23、 investment opportunities can be found under the reports section of this website. hsbc believes an investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investors existing holdings and other considerations. different securities firms use a variety of ratings

24、 terms as well as different rating systems to describe their recommendations. investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research report. in addition, because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts views, investors should carefully

25、 read the entire research report and should not infer its contents from the rating. in any case, ratings should not be used or relied on in isolation as investment advice. rating definitions for long-term investment opportunities stock ratings hsbc assigns ratings to its stocks in this sector on the

26、 following basis: for each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of equity for that stocks domestic or, as appropriate, regional market established by our strategy team. the price target for a stock represents the value the analyst expects the stock to reach over our perfor

27、mance horizon. the performance horizon is 12 months. for a stock to be classified as overweight, the potential return, which equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, including the forecast dividend yield when indicated, must exceed the required return by

28、 at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as volatile*). for a stock to be classified as underweight, the stock must be expected to underperform its required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months (or 10 percentage p

29、oints for a stock classified as volatile*). stocks between these bands are classified as neutral. our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any material change (initiation of coverage, change of volatility status or change in price target). notwithstanding this, and although r

30、atings are subject to ongoing management review, expected returns will be permitted to move outside the bands as a result of normal share price fluctuations without necessarily triggering a rating change. 7 jan-08jan-09jan-10jan-11jan-12jan-13 45% 18% n/a ascendas hospitality trust (asht sp) real es

31、tateabc 30 january 2013 *a stock will be classified as volatile if its historical volatility has exceeded 40%, if the stock has been listed for less than 12 months (unless it is in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expects significant volatility. however, stocks which

32、we do not consider volatile may in fact also behave in such a way. historical volatility is defined as the past months average of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. in order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating, however, volatility has to move 2.5 percentage points past the 4

33、0% benchmark in either direction for a stocks status to change. rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities as of 29 january 2013, the distribution of all ratings published is as follows: overweight (buy)(29% of these provided with investment banking services) neutral (hold) underweig

34、ht (sell) 37%(28% of these provided with investment banking services) (23% of these provided with investment banking services) share price and rating changes for long-term investment opportunities ascendas hospitality trus (ashp.si) share price performance sgd vs hsbc recommendation hk the hongkong

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