NPVChina Outlook

1、copyright npv china china outlook 2009 copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 1 npv china business consulting is an opportunity maker in the sino-european gateway. being an opportunity maker we support both multinational and chinese companies in developing their activities

2、 in china, generating relationship, looking for investment opportunities and identifying the resources (tangible, intangible and human) they need to achieve their business goals. copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 2 2 agenda executive summary china at a glance politica

3、l structure national accounts balance trade china diversity national economic plan industry district industry organization legal structure for foreign enterprise copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 3 china, with its 1.33 billion population, is the country with the large

4、st potential for growth in the world and thus must represent an essential part of each companys strategy, either as a production base or as a final market the economy has been growing at average rates of 10.8% between 2001 and 2008 and is now 3rd largest in the world, accounting for 6% of global gdp

5、; foreign trade has been growing dramatically (an average of 25% cagr between 2004 and 2008), and foreign investment has kept pouring in to the country with actually utilized foreign capital of 92.4 billion in 2008, up by 23.6% for italian companies, china represents an extremely important opportuni

6、ty on any of the following 3 fronts: qsale: as a final market with more than 1.33 billion consumers qdelocalization: as a low cost production base qpurchasing: as a sourcing base exchange rate: qrmb/usd stood at 6.83 at the end of 2008, with a 6.9% appreciation of the end of 2007 qrmb/eur stood at 9

7、.61 at the end of 2008, with an 9.8% appreciation of the end of 2007 inflation: cpi in 2008 surged to 5.9% mainly due to the soar of food price. other factors such as increase of energy price and excess liquidity in the financial market may keep the momentum of cpi stock market: sse composite index

8、plunges 2/3 from the beginning of the year; whether the government should intervene is under intense debate the new law of the peoples republic of china on employment contracts came into effect in 1st jan, 2008 towards more protection of the employees the 29th olympic games was held successfully in

9、beijing in august, 2008. executive summary source : china statistical yearbook , china national statistics bureau, npv analysis copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 4 4 agenda executive summary china at a glance political structure national accounts balance trade china d

10、iversity national economic plan industry district industry organization legal structure for foreign enterprise copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 5 by 2050 it is expected that china will be the worlds number one economy source : bric report , goldman sachs china at a g

11、lance 2025 usd bn 2050 usd bn the largest economies in asia in 2025 the largest economies in the world in 2050 copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 6 territory - 9.6 million km2 , 1st in asia, 3rd largest in the world population - 1,328 billion in 2008 (51,5% male, 45.7%

12、 urban) - annual growth rate of approximately 0.53% capital - beijing government system - communist administrative divisions - 4 level : province (34) / prefecture ( 333 ) / county ( 2860 ) / townships (41040 ) currency - renminbi (rmb) or yuan, semi-flexible exchange rate languages - mandarin, with

13、 cantonese as the second most common language ethnicities - han (92%) and 55 minorities (8%) religion buddhism, islam, taoism, christianity source : china statistical yearbook, npv analysis country profile china at a glance copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 7 7 agenda

14、 executive summary china at a glance political structure national accounts balance trade china diversity national economic plan industry district industry organization legal structure for foreign enterprise copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 8 political structure sourc

15、e : /china/gov/chart.htm, npv analysis government and communist party structure copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 9 beijing shanghai tianjin chongqing hong kong macau xinjiang tibet qinghai gansu sichuan yunnan inner mongolia guizhou guangx

16、i hunani hubei shaanxi shanxi ningxia henan hebei guangdong jiangxi fujian anhui zejiang shandong hainan liaoning jilin heilongjiang taiwan jiangsu municipalityautonomous regionspecial administrative region source : china statistical yearbook, npv analysis administrative division 23 ordinary provinc

17、es (including taiwan) 4 municipalities : beijing chongqing shanghai tianjin 5 autonomous regions : guangxi inner mongolia ningxia tibet xinjiang 2 special administrative regions : hong kong macau political structure china administrative divisions copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook,

18、by npv china 10 source : chinese government, npv analysis central government municipalitiesprovinces, autonomous regionsspecial administrative regions districtscounties citiesautonomous prefecturescounties, autonomous counties districtscounties citiescountiesautonomous counties townshipsethnic towns

19、hipstowns political structure china administrative divisions copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 1111 agenda executive summary china at a glance political structure national accounts balance trade china diversity national economic plan industry district industry organiz

20、ation legal structure for foreign enterprise copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 12 china is the 3rd largest economy in the world in 2008, 6% of gross world product (2007) considering the gdp per capita, china is the 106th in the world in 2008 ( at $3,315 ) chinese econ

21、omy grows consistently reaching a 10% annual growth rate during the latest five years. chinas urban households per capita disposable income growth has consistently been higher than cpi inflation, indicating a positive real growth in the peoples living standard. china gdp 2004 - 2008 peoples income a

22、nd cpi 2001-2008 rmb bn national accounts source :china national economic and social development report, china statistical yearbook, npv analysis copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 13 secondary industry is the dominant force in driving economy forward accounts for almo

23、st 50% of gdp, with cagr 18.12% from 2000 - 2008 tertiary industry grows with cagr 17.61% from 2000 -2008 gdp breakdown 1978-2008 source : china national economic and social development report, china statistical yearbook, npv analysis national accounts copyright npv china2009 china outlook china out

24、look, by npv china 14 average gdp per capita in 2008: 3,315 usd shanghai is the richest province level area with a per capita gdp of 10, 922 usd in 2008. zhejiang, jiangsu, and guangdong are the top 3 richest provinces 43.1 % of populations gdp per capita is higher than average china has reduced 62

25、million, 53% extreme poverty during the past 20 years. in 1985 china had 116 million people living under $1 dollar-a-day poverty level.(*) gdp per capita ( usd ) (*) mgi china consumer demand model national accounts source : china national economic and social development report, china statistical ye

26、arbook , npv analysis over 4,000 usd/person 464 million below 2,500 usd/person 347 million over 2,500 usd/person 489 million average copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 1515 agenda executive summary china at a glance political structure national accounts balance trade c

27、hina diversity national economic plan industry district industry organization legal structure for foreign enterprise copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 16 balance trade import export exchange volume cagr bn usd foreign trade china rest of world (2001-2009) + 27% + 25%

28、cagr 02-09e source : china national economic and social development report, china statistical yearbook, *economist intelligence unit, npv analysis 509.7 620.8 851 1154.5 1422 1760.4 2173.8 2561.6 3231.8 copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 1717 balance trade chinas forei

29、gn trade by region / country in 2007 % of total imports 65% 15% 8% 5% 4% 3% 100% % of total exports 47% 24% 21% 4% 3% 2% 100% top 3 countries by region imports: country and % of region trade japan korea taiwan germany russia france usa canada bermuda brazil chile argentina angola south africa sudan

30、australia new zealand new guinea usa hong kong japan 22% 17% 16% 32% 14% 10% 86% 14% 0,0% 36% 20% 12% 35% 18% 11% 91% 5% 2% 19% 15% 8% hong kong japan korea germany holland uk usa canada bermuda mexico brazil panama south africa egypt nigeria australia new zealand marshal island japan korea usa 32%

31、18% 10% 17% 14% 11% 92% 8% 0,1% 23% 22% 11% 20% 12% 10% 85% 10% 2% 14% 11% 7% exports: country and % of region trade billion usd source : china statistical yearbook 2008 (end of 2007 data), npv analysis copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 1818 agenda executive summary c

32、hina at a glance political structure national accounts balance trade china diversity national economic plan industry district industry organization legal structure for foreign enterprise copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 19 eastern region shanghai beijing tianjin guan

33、gdong shandong zhejiang jiangsu fujian hainan hebei central region shanxi henan hubei hunan anhui jiangsu northeastern region heilongjiang jilin liaoning not included taiwan hong kong macau western region inner mongolia shaanxi ningxia gansu chongqing sichuan guizhou yunnan guangxi qinghai xinjiang

34、tibet source : chinese national development and reform commission, npv analysis china diversity division of regions copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 20 474.8 mn 352.9 mn 385.1 mn108.5 mn population by urban and rural residence and region source : china statistical ye

35、arbook 2008 (end of 2007 data), npv analysis china diversity copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 2121 gdp and gdp per capita by region source : china statistical yearbook 2008 (end of 2007 data), npv analysis china diversity gdp and gdp per capita by region copyright np

36、v china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 22 annual income and expenditure per capita by region rmb china diversity source : china statistical yearbook 2008 (end of 2007 data), npv analysis copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 23 western northeastern centrale

37、astern urban household expenditure breakdown food clothing transport and communication education, cultural and recreation services miscellaneous china diversity source : china statistical yearbook 2008 (end of 2007 data), npv analysis urban household expenditure breakdown copyright npv china2009 chi

38、na outlook china outlook, by npv china 24 western northeastern centraleastern rural household expenditure breakdown food residence transport and communication education, cultural and recreation services miscellaneous china diversity source : china statistical yearbook 2008 (end of 2007 data), npv an

39、alysis rural household expenditure breakdown copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 25 note that tier 3b is also referred to as tier 4. our reference to tier 3 combines 3a with 3b for a total of 620 cities china diversity pyramid of chinas tier cities 41 cities occupy: 49.

40、9 % of gdp 23.0 % of population 56.6 % of market sale of consumer goods beijing shanghai guangzhou shenzhen chongqing tianjin wuhan hangzhou nanjing foshan chengdu shantou xian shenyang jinan dongguan wenzhou taizhou ningbo zhongshan suzhou changzhou wuxi zhuhai xiamen fuzhou qingdao changsha yantai

41、 putian zhengzhou taiyuan kunming tangshan changchun shijiazhuang guiyang huaian harbin zibo dalian linyi nanchang zaozhuang xuzhou xiangfan baotou urumchi huizhou lanzhou jilin daqing huzhou quanzhou jinhua jiaxing dongying jinzhou shaoxing zhoushan yueyang quzhou nantong shaoguan liuzhou baoding x

42、ianyang zhuzhou pingdingshan xinxiang hengyang baoshan huludao bengbu zhengjiang langfang example cities tier 1 - “ big four ” 4 largest cities with highest income, large population base, and largest gdp scale tier 2a - “ climbers ” ( 11 cities) large population base, high income and large gdp tier

43、2b - “ niches ” ( 10 cities) wealthy consumer, but relatively small overall market size tier 2c - “ mainstream ” ( 16 cities) relatively low income, but large population base tier 3a - “ next frontier ” ( 136 cities) growing markets with population larger than 1 million tier 3b - “ poor cousins ” (

44、484 cities) small cities with urban population smaller than 1 million source : city national economic and social development report 2008, npv analysis copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 26 tier 1 city tier 2a city tier 2b city tier 2c city source : china statistical ye

45、arbook, npv analysis regionno. of cities eastern29 central3 western5 northeastern4 china diversity geographical distribution of chinas tier 1 and tier 2 cities copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 27 source : city national economic and social development report 2008, npv

46、 analysis breakdown of china market china diversity copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 2828 agenda executive summary china at a glance political structure national accounts balance trade china diversity national economic plan industry district industry organization leg

47、al structure for foreign enterprise copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 29 source: the outline of the 11th five-year plan, npv analysis current 2005target 2010 increase/ decrease state of the art 2007 economic growth: gdp (trillion rmb)% cagr24.6 gdp per capi

48、ta (rmb)13,98519,2706.60%18,696 economic structure: share of service industrys value added to gdp40.30%43.30%3%39.10% share of employment in service industry to total employment31.50%35.30%3.80%32.40% share of r but consumption contributes more than past years second industry dominates; tertiary ind

49、ustry loses its share water utilization efficiency increases considerably; resource consumption is heavy; forests are planted the basic policy orientation 1/2 the five-year plan state of the art 2007 copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 31 enhancing independent innovatio

50、n capability: input of capital and substance factor science and technology advancement and human resources. deepening reform and opening up: administrative intervention giving more play to the fundamental role of the market in allocating resources under guidance of macro regulation and control the p

51、eople-centered approach, improving living standard: accumulatio n of material wealth overall development of the people as well as the balanced economic and social development. economic growth economic growth economic growth r each level education enrollment increases soaring inflation and high volat

52、ility in financial markets urge more skilled and proper level of macro controls increasing health institutions and cultural facilities; peoples income grows with gdp; poverty reduces the basic policy orientation 2/2 the five-year plan state of the art 2007 source: the outline of the 11th five-year p

53、lan, npv analysis copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by npv china 32 4 trillion yuan investment plan to stimulate domestic market itembrief description indemnificatory house constructionlow-rent house building, nomadic peoples residential stabilization, renovation of old and dilapi

54、dated house in rural area infrastructure construction in rural areasecurity building of firedamp and water system in rural area, better the rural grid construction, reservoir security project, increase the support to help the poor railway, highway and airport significant infrastructure construction

55、strengthen the passengers dedicated line, coal transportation line and western area railway construction, better highway network, fasten the re-construction of urban grid, arrange the construction of middle-west airport medical system and education progress strengthen the medical service system in r

56、ural area, fasten the re-construction of school dormitory in middle-west rural area, promote the special education and comprehensive culture station building strengthen ecological environment building fasten urban sewage and solid waste disposal facility construction, prevention and cure on key rive

57、r basin pollution, strengthen forest source protection, support important energy saving and emission reducing project. fasten the self-creation and structure adjustment support high-tech industry building, industrial technology progress, and service industry development fasten the re-construction af

58、ter earthquake land using plan, market service system, ecology recovery, rural area and urban system construction and house building increase the residential income of both urban and rural area. increase the minimum purchase price of grain, raise the comprehensive allowance for farmers, increase the

59、 social security level, continuous increasing the old-age pension, subsidy for farmers seeds buying vat reformimplement the vat reform in whole country covering all industries, encourage the enterprise technology re-construction, reduce the enterprise duty account to 120 billion rmb enhance the support to finance to contribute the economic growth cancel the credit scale limit on commercial bank, reasonable increasing credit scale, credit support on merger and reintegration project, breed and stabilize the consuming credit growth source: copyright npv china2009 china outlook china outlook, by