生物医药行业1月跟踪报告：利好因素积聚行情强势崛起0110

1、2011-12-302012-01-122012-01-302012-02-082012-02-172012-02-282012-03-082012-03-192012-03-282012-04-112012-04-202012-05-032012-05-142012-05-232012-06-012012-06-122012-06-212012-07-032012-07-122012-07-232012-08-012012-08-102012-08-212012-08-302012-09-102012-09-192012-09-282012-10-162012-10-252012-11-05

2、2012-11-142012-11-232012-12-042012-12-132012-12-24 () , 20131 2013110 12 10.33% a 10.36% 29 4.24 14.6% 8 2012 7.16% 11 2012 2011 pe 2612 9 2012 123% imss1010510120046 201319% 2013 20125 1s101051209000293 % 20 15 000300.sh300ci005018.wi 123 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15

3、2013p/e21 1201211 .2012-10-08 54.59 11 1.18 eps 12e 1.50 13e 1.97 14e 2.47 11 46 pe 12e 36 13e 28 14e 22 peg 1.28 2 . 2012-10-11 37.180.881.141.451.84423326201.21 3201210 24.420.610.830.96171 30.540.781.111.401.76392822171.06 .2012-10-08 61.60 21.09 1.00 0.44 1.50 0.59 2.01 0.85 2.67 1.

4、13 61 48 41 36 31 25 23 19 1.23 0.93 4.20129 23.66 60.59 0.64 0.83 0.95 1.66 1.27 2.26 1.61 2.95 37 73 25 37 19 27 15 21 0.83 1.10 . .2012-09-03 36.40 39.40 0.49 1.37 0.94 1.25 1.40 1.60 1.72 2.02 74 29 39 32 26 25 21 20 1.09 1.16 52012 201319 .2012-08-20 11 11 2013 1 12 2 7 10 11 12 20131 . 1 . 1 .

5、 1 . 3 . 4 . 5 19% . 5 . 6 . 6 . 7 . 8 . 8 . 9 . 9 . 10 . 11 . 11 .12 (600079) 3 2012 .12 . 2 . 2 . 2 4201110201211. 3 5201110201211. 3 6201110201211 . 4 . 5 8 9 2011 2011 2012 2012 . 5 . 6 . 7 . 8 . 9 4 5 20131 1 2 3 2013 20131 2012 . 1 . 2 . 6 . 8 . 9 20131 12a14.6%10.36% 4.24201210.33%29 87.16%20

6、12pe 2612121% 30% 1 120131 201211115221.919.50%17%6/7/8/9/10 12.5%/15.1%/16.5%/21.4%/15% 2012111149017.52% 11168 20%7/8/9/1016.9%/15.6%/9.1%/14.3%105.7pcts9 1 1 6 8 2011 12 12 1 11 2013 2012 1 26a121% 11 12a14.6%10.36% 4.24 201210.33%298 7.16% 1 2012/1/142012/2/142012/3/142012/4/142012/5/142012/6/14

7、2012/7/142012/8/14 2011/12/14 2012/9/14 2012/10/142012/11/142012/12/14 05 0 20131 112%2% 6.49 10 21.6 21.6 20.8 19.9 19.4 18.2 17.9 17.1 17.0 16.7 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.2 16.2 15.3 14.6 14.4 13.7 13.3 13.2 12.9 12.7 12.5 12.5 11.8 10.36 15 20 23.8 25 29.6 30 35 (0.4) (1.2) (1.2) (1.5) (2.7) (2.9) (3.0)

8、(3.4) (4.3) (4.7) (7.5) (7.8) (10.0) (12.6) (16.3) (17.3) -20 -10 3.9 3.2 2.6 13.3 12.8 10.3 9.6 7.6 7.3 10 21.9 19.0 16.7 20 30 31.635.0 40 wind 3 2012 wind % 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% wind () 22012% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 3.12 5.82 -6.82 5.90 -0.95 -6.19 -4.59 -2.67 1.89 0.88 -4.29 14.6

9、0 3.17 -5.42 -8.54 10.08 4.26 -6.72 0.10 3.78 -2.12 6.33 7.29 4.95 11.14 -3.60 0.99 1.33 4.00 1.71 -0.17 3.40 2.53 -10.76 -6.47 10.36 -4.24 10.33 -6.04 -9.17 11.83 6.00 -7.56 -0.73 2.69 -3.21 4.09 5.04 1.66 7.85 -11.05 -6.46 0.46 3.13 0.37 -1.52 0.59 -0.29 -10.47 -6.18 12.37 -2.23 -6.47 -6.03 -9.15

10、8.90 3.08 -6.97 -0.14 3.45 -2.45 11.94 12.89 4.14 10.33 -2.12 2.47 1.71 4.38 2.52 0.63 5.70 4.83 -11.19 -6.90 11.16 -3.44 18.73 -6.00 -9.13 9.49 3.67 -6.51 0.32 3.05 -2.85 7.33 8.28 9.53 15.72 -1.98 2.60 0.09 2.75 3.03 1.14 3.60 2.73 -10.95 -6.66 7.33 -7.27 12.28 -2.97 -6.09 11.61 5.78 -6.17 0.65 5.

11、06 -0.84 2.54 3.49 -0.51 5.68 -6.73 -2.14 1.39 4.06 -0.66 -2.54 3.09 2.22 -11.37 -7.08 14.07 -0.52 4.25 -2.78 -5.90 9.61 3.79 -5.89 0.94 6.88 0.97 2.27 3.23 2.89 9.07 -0.89 3.70 5.57 8.24 1.74 -0.15 -2.49 -3.36 -9.24 -4.95 9.69 -4.91 11.54 -9.06 -12.18 11.62 5.80 -6.52 0.30 3.20 -2.70 2.05 3.00 -0.0

12、8 6.11 -1.80 2.79 4.47 7.14 -4.46 -6.35 4.13 3.25 -13.74 -9.45 16.42 1.83 0.89 -7.85 -10.97 11.86 6.03 -12.77 -5.95 5.23 -0.67 -2.80 -1.85 1.88 8.07 -0.71 3.87 5.70 8.37 0.33 -1.56 3.83 2.95 -2.44 1.85 14.45 -0.14 11.95 2 19% 25.1% 22.3% 20131 7.16-9.6415.569.111.088.38-2.288.78 11 wind2012-12-31 20

13、12 11115221.919.50% 17%1015%6/7/8/9/10 12.5%/15.1%/16.5%/21.4%/15% 2013 4201110201211 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 31.2% 26.6% 25.1% 21.4% 14.5%15.4% 15.1%16.5% 15% 12.5% 17% 5% 0% wind 20121111490 17.52% 11 16.9%/15.6%/9.1%/14.3%10 168 5.7pcts 20% 9 7/8/9/10 5201110201211 60% 50% 40% 30% 31.5% 48.3% 20%

14、 10% 0% 5.3% 13.1% 19.5%17.7%21.2%18.6% 16.9%15.6% 9.1% 20% 14.3% wind 20121130%29% 3 29.3% 28.7% 28.3% 27.0% , , 20131 6201110201211 33.0% 32.0% 31.0% 32.0% 30.0% 30.3% 30% 29.0% 28.0% 29.0%29.1%28.9% 29.5% 28.0% 27.5% 27.2% 2011-09 2011-11 2011-12 2012-02 2012-04 2012-05 2012-07 2012-08 2012-10 20

15、12-12 2013-01 wind 21 20% sfda 15%, 2013 1 20132015 20,400 20% 700 3 5003 1000 500 500 2 1000 121718 1000 20 4 1 20131 2013 2011-12 19% 2012 1119.5% 2ims2012 17.1% 2013 24.2% 21.1% 21.9% 19% 4 ims pdb 2011 21.1% 2012 + 2011 + 7 windims pdb 201112 201212 8 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 20112012 2011

16、2012 0% 23456789101112 wind 5 20131 9 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 20112012 20112012 0% 23456789101112 wind 2013 1 32013 / 1 8 2013 307 2013 700 : 2013 1231gmp mansfield198190% 20% 6 20131 10 1 2 3 1985 10 20 10 1985 93 1993 1993 1993 7 ind nda 5 20131 4 1985 10 20 199319931992 1993 2001 8019921231200112

17、31 20 2005 wikipedia 2001790 6.1 ind6.3nda1.814 206 11 fda iiiiii 10,000 5 250 1.5 20 100 5 compounds 100 500 6 1,000 5,000 2 1fda 2 1984hatch-waxman hatch-waxman 14 1992 8 2007010520070202200703092007040620070430200706012007062920070727200708242007092120071026200711232007122120080118200802152008031

18、420080411200805092008060620080704200808012008082920080926200810312008112820081226200901232009022720090327200904242009052220090619200907172009081420090911200910092009110620091204200912312010012920100305201004022010043020100528201006252010072320100820201009172010101520101112201012102011010720110201201

19、1030420110401201104292011052720110624201107222011081920110916201110212011111820111216201201132012021720120316201204132012051120120608201207062012080320120831201209282012110220121130 2012/12/28 20131 a 2012 148% pe 2612123% ttm31 38 12 201330 pettmapettm 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 wind 180% 160% 140%

20、120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% ttm 3133 22%3329% 44% 3711%23 30% 65% 5 pettm pe20112012 pe a 300 a 300 13 11 31 24 31 33 37 23 33 63 148% 198% 13 11 31 23 31 38 28 23 35 72 137% 184% 12 10 26 19 26 28 34 19 28 37 123% 155% 23 21 38 38 33 43 41 41 46 178 78% 105% 53 52 73 114 64 70 90 80 71 738 161

21、% 217% 11 9 19 10 17 23 20 19 20 54 -5% -5% -46% -50% -17% -36% -5% -22% -11% -44% -29% -65% 16% 15% 67% 157% 80% 44% 85% 22% 61% 15% wind 2013p/e21 2013192007 9 peg 20131 6 z z z eps 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e pe 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 000538.sz 000423.sz 600085.sh 600436.sh 600535.sh 002603.sz 000999.

22、sz 600557.sh 300039.sz 600594.sh 600750.sh 000650.sz 300026.sz 600422.sh 600252.sh 600479.sh 600276.sh 000963.sz 600079.sh 002653.sz 600062.sh 300006.sz 300199.sz 002422.sz 000915.sz 600521.sh 600216.sh 000661.sz 300009.sz 002038.sz 002252.sz 002007.sz 002022.sz 600161.sh 300122.sz 300298.sz 002223.

23、sz 463 281 242 145 282 135 242 88 62 75 65 59 91 63 106 36 366 161 120 122 131 33 30 287 29 67 110 80 23 150 75 131 54 71 147 54 79 66.62 42.95 18.55 103.37 54.59 24.45 24.69 21.09 23.66 20.81 20.84 5.93 36.40 20.06 9.74 11.97 29.62 37.18 24.42 30.54 23.00 18.25 14.95 59.80 16.28 12.25 21.16 60.59 1

24、2.17 39.40 15.41 22.67 10.93 13.82 36.85 61.60 14.95 1.74 1.31 0.34 1.82 1.18 0.82 0.78 0.44 0.64 0.74 0.73 0.30 0.49 0.41 0.34 0.27 0.71 0.88 0.61 0.78 0.93 0.40 0.40 2.01 0.52 0.40 1.95 0.83 0.34 1.37 0.41 0.64 0.46 0.45 0.49 1.00 0.43 2.25 1.51 0.42 2.25 1.50 0.50 0.98 0.59 0.95 0.89 0.98 0.37 0.

25、94 0.58 0.45 0.40 0.88 1.14 0.83 1.11 1.06 0.50 0.55 2.37 0.66 0.50 2.10 1.66 0.42 1.25 0.43 0.65 0.55 0.51 0.71 1.50 0.52 2.86 1.81 0.53 2.76 1.97 0.83 1.20 0.85 1.27 1.17 1.28 0.45 1.40 0.79 0.56 0.49 1.09 1.45 0.96 1.40 1.27 0.64 0.70 3.05 0.83 0.68 2.40 2.26 0.52 1.60 0.50 0.81 0.66 0.60 1.02 2.

26、01 0.70 3.58 2.17 0.65 3.65 2.47 1.11 1.45 1.13 1.61 1.46 1.56 0.62 1.72 1.00 0.66 0.60 1.33 1.84 1.14 1.76 1.57 0.84 0.87 3.89 0.99 0.85 2.69 2.95 0.65 2.02 0.56 1.05 0.81 0.70 1.32 2.67 0.90 38 33 55 57 46 30 32 48 37 28 28 20 74 48 28 44 42 42 40 39 25 46 37 30 31 31 11 73 36 29 38 35 24 31 75 61

27、 35 30 28 44 46 36 49 25 36 25 23 21 16 39 35 22 30 34 33 29 28 22 37 27 25 25 25 10 37 29 32 36 35 20 27 52 41 29 23 24 35 37 28 29 21 25 19 18 16 13 26 25 17 24 27 26 25 22 18 29 21 20 20 18 9 27 23 25 31 28 17 23 36 31 21 19 20 29 28 22 22 17 19 15 14 13 10 21 20 15 20 22 20 21 17 15 22 17 15 16

28、14 8 21 19 20 28 22 13 20 28 23 17 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 2.5 1.3 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.9 10 peg 20131 eps 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e pe 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 300015.sz 601607.sh 000028.sz 600511.sh 72 307 97 7

29、7 134 16.84 11.40 33.82 16.09 28 0.40 0.76 1.15 0.57 0.75 0.45 0.80 1.43 0.68 0.93 0.58 0.89 1.71 0.82 1.19 0.80 1.02 2.04 0.98 42 15 30 28 38 37 14 24 24 30 29 13 20 20 23 21 11 17 16 18 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 5% wind2013-1-9 60 1% 8% 10% 25% 10% / 109103 / 11 20131 2011 40 18.25% 20126 2011 40152011 2 20% 7 10% 600079 3-5 4 2013 2012-2014 eps0.83/0.96/1.1427.25 12 - “” analyst certification i ii the analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research