MBA毕业论文（英文）

1、 89inter american university a study on underground economy of china macro economy strategic management a research paper submitted tothe graduate faculty of the college of business and management in candidacy for the degree ofmaster of business administrationby li huishenzhen, chinaoctober2007copyri

2、ght 2007li hui learnermemorandumto: li hui learner, mastered candidatefrom: zhang yu jie chair committee chairsubject: copyright agreement releasedate: october 23, 2007many m ba students decide to copyright their dissertations. this is a good idea if follow-on research is anticipated or if a truly i

3、nnovative concept is developed in the dissertation.the university retains the right to use dissertations for academic purposes, such as displaying them in a library that is open for public review, making them available for review by other mastered candidates of this institution, and providing copied

4、 for review by educational or professional licensing and accrediting agencies.in the event you choose to copyright your dissertation, the university still retains its right to use your dissertation for educational purposes as described above. to document your agreement with this condition, please si

5、gn and date the following statement and return this memorandum to me.i, li hui student, do hereby grant inter american university permission to use my dissertation for educational purposes as described in this memorandum. li hui student dateabstractname: li hui learner degree: master of business adm

6、inistration major field: strategic management awarded: october 23, 2007institution: inter american university location: shenzhen, chinatitle of dissertation: a study on underground economy of china macro economy strategic managementscope of study: the object of underground economy is unobserved or n

7、ot being included in statistic economic behavior, such as illegal, unlawful or deviant economic behaviors like tax dodging or tax evasion, underground black gold, lease seeking, underground factories, pirating, smuggle, and etc. the existence huge scale underground economy, in the course of chinas t

8、ransform from planned economy to market economy, has severely affected the management and running of the nations macroeconomic strategy. based on the findings of underground economic study, the paper analyzes china underground economys scale, effects, functions, and development trend, and brings for

9、ward research direction and policy-making basis of underground economy for china macro economy strategic management. findings and conclusions: macro economy strategic management theories before this study are mostly based on the ignorance of underground economy thus caused the deficiency of theory a

10、nalysis background. the paper expatiates underground economic study objective in macro economy strategic management, puts forward estimation method for underground economy, analyzes the role of china enterprises in underground economy, describes the industry distributing of china underground economy

11、, and brings forward new national macro economy strategic management reference frame taking general supply/demand as x-coordinate and underground/overground economy as y-coordinate based on the underground economic research. these research findings will of great significance in perfecting chinas the

12、ory system of marco economy strategic management.chairs approval date: approval批准we, the undersigned, certify we have read this dissertation and approve it as adequate in scope and quality for the degree of master of business administrationlearner: li hui title of dissertation: a study on undergroun

13、d economy of china macro economy strategic management dissertation committee:chair 张玉杰 zhang yu jie date april 5, 2007. member 黄继明 huang ji ming date april 5, 2007 member 黄恒学 huang heng xue date april 5, 2007 member 张新民 zhang xin min date april 5, 2007 member 丁立宏 ding li hong date april 5, 2007 tabl

14、e of contentspageacknowledgments -8list of illustrations-9list of tables -10list of abbreviations -11glossary -12list of appendices -13chapter. introduction-14statement of the problem-14definition of terms-17brief review of the literature-18highlights of methodology -23limitations of study -25resear

15、ch findings -26.review of the literature -27. methods - 34overview -34restatement of problem -41research expectations -47description of research design -50methodological assumptions and limitations -57. findings-58findings-58analysis and evaluation of findings-66. summary, limitations, conclusions a

16、nd recommendations-67summary-67limitations-68conclusions-68recommendations-69pageacknowledgmentsthis is to acknowledge the following professors for their kind instruction and assistance in this study. they are prof. zhang yujie, from tsinghua university, for strategic management, prof. huang hengxue

17、, from beijing university, for marketing management, scups prof. barbara kiteme for enterprise financing, prof. zhang xinmin, from college of management, university of international business and economics, for finance report analysis, prof. ding lihong, from capital university of economy and busines

18、s, for investment management, prof. wang mingjian, from guanghua school of management, beijing university, for working management. list of illustrationsmap 1 theoretical model of false foreign investment registration & foreign exchange flow. .64map 2 the logic flow chart of underground economy stimu

19、lating social shocks by in pure agricultural regions 67map 3 new reference frames for national macroeconomic strategic management. 68map 4 exogenous change effects of unregistered economic sectors .49map 5 exogenous change effects of unregistered sectors.50map 6 exogenous and endogenous transfer eff

20、ects to unregistered sector50map 7 exogenous effects of unregistered sector.51map 8 cash and travelers checks, gnp unsecured loan and price ratio.51map 9 actual and forecasted cash holding amount.51map 10 cash balance per capita.51map 11 the assumption relation between observed and unobserved sector

21、s.60map 12 estimation result of simple cash ratio model.61map 13 econometric cash ratio model estimate.62list of tables table 1 estimate survey of u.s. undeclared income in 1981.54table 2 household survey in typical i region64list of abbreviations car: manage with regulationscir: manage violating re

22、gulationscod: manage under instructioncbir: control based on infringement of the rules bea: bureau of economic analysisfrb：federal reserve bureaugnp：gross national productirs：estimatennp：net national productntl: non-tax liabilities nipa: production accountpt：gross business volumepy：total incomefft：f

23、ederal filing threshold glossary 地下经济（underground economy）原国民生产总值（original gnp）转移交换（transfer exchange）躲避（aversion）未申报收入 (undeclared income)未观察到的经济部门 (unobserved economic sector)确定市场（positive market）list of appendicesunderground economics introduction（omitted）underground economicsabstract（omitted）hu

24、angang: corruption brings up 1000 billion yuan losses for china annually (omitted) qiu xiaohua: china envisages issue of “underground economy” (omitted) introductionstatement of the problemin terms of a special subject, underground economics is still a young subject because what it studies are unobs

25、erved or not being included in statistics economic behaviors usually related to illegal, unlawful or deviant economic behaviors such as tax dodging or tax evasion, underground black gold, lease seeking, underground factories, pirating, smuggle, and etc. each government shows quite distinct attitudes

26、, policies and disposal means toward underground economy. as china transforming from planned economy to market economy, the abundance or huge existence of underground economy has already severely affected the running of macroeconomic. the uncertainty of statistic figures results in the uncertainty o

27、f government policy formulating on the overall national economy. what the paper will dissertate are the scale, effects, functions, and development trend of underground economy under the premise of the continual growth of market economy proportion in the overall national economy. the author systemica

28、lly collected studies on underground economic issues in america, u.k., germany, italy, and canada etc from translated versions, 1994 and 1998, of underground economy wrote by edekalfeige (u.s.). the underground economic issues related to former soviet union and hungary was specifically noted. quite

29、a long historic period after the disaggregation of former soviet unions economic system and political system, underground economy appeared rapid expansion with the debilitation of government management on national economy, chaos and tremendous leak in policies and regulations. this severely affected

30、 the regular running of overall national economy. in the above 20-year reform and open-up of china, underground economy, without question, is a colossal value in the transformation from traditional planned economy pattern to market economy pattern. it is estimated that underground economy accounts f

31、or no less than 20% of the gdp. (since its definition is un-estimated economic behaviors in the study, the estimation is self-contradicted.) the study will surely touch upon brand-new exploitation in an unknown field. as relatively engrained market economy countries, u.k., germany, france, japan, an

32、d america have accumulated rich experiences in management and statistics in the several hundreds years of government management of market economy. this judgment is based on the condition that national expenditures of these countries mainly come from revenue, while china, including the former soviet

33、union, for quite a long historic period practiced the management system of enterprises paying profits to government. this direct utilization means in fact didnt need other social mechanism to accomplish the economic benefits distribution between enterprises and government, so the issue of undergroun

34、d economy hardly could exist in this system. from 1950s to 1970s and even lasting to 1980s, chinese government harvested profits from enterprises directly and then distributed investment to each enterprise and institution directly; the distribution pattern also stopped the possibility of underground

35、 economy occurring. with the profit-to-taxation reform in china, revenue has become the one and only economic bond between government and each enterprise. however, the large number of leaks in monitor system and statistic system of the entire taxation, as well as the faults in policies and regulatio

36、ns make the existence of tremendous underground economy inevitable, which at the mean time causes huge taxation black hole. therefore, taking market economy relatively developed and perfect countries as reference frame, its more important than at any time to study the pattern, scale, activity featur

37、es, and penetrating impacts of underground economy in the course of transforming from the planned economic system to another system. the author, as a professional economist at the mid 1980s, having studied and analyzed the issue of underground economy for a long time, thinks that in view of practice

38、, this issue is not an issue of theory but more importantly an issue of practice. this then requires each country identifying relatively exact or nearly exact conception in a dark field when stipulating economic policies especially taxation policy and statistics policy. in the course of reform in ch

39、ina, there are complicated ownership structures and components, diverse ownership forms make up the multiple benefit principal parts, the effect of administration force still prevails over the economy. the aftermath of economic running brought up by rights is beyond estimation. therefore, it was ver

40、y difficult at that time to study underground economy in china, in fact the paper failed to find related basis and stat. figures to analyze underground economy through mathematic models. according to the many materials publicized at that time in china, the paper failed to obtain complete income tax

41、rate, real employment rate, currency multiplier, and real national fiscal deficit figures essential for analysis, historic data about demand elasticity, supply elasticity, labor supply elasticity, etc are also beyond reach, so its impossible to establish a invariable mathematic model. for example, t

42、he author had tried to study chinas private enterprise proceeds and actual proceeds through phillips curve and chinas monetary policy. however, actually complete data about prices, tax rate, asset income per capita, capitals rights, and the growth of monetary labor force were not available at that t

43、ime. therefore, it was almost impossible to establish a model to analyze the part that the government desires to obtain but couldnt get it recorded. now that china has established relatively complete capital market, the government can publicize tax rate, inflation rate, and employment rate close to

44、fact. the deliberate distortion and falsification of economic figures caused by the diverse ownerships can be reduced to minimal degree. and this provides great possibility and feasibility for the study on chinas underground economy issue at this phase. in fact, the economy grows at high speed all t

45、he times since the reform and open-up in china. and this period happens to be the historic period when the global economic structure experiences important transform. especially the development of information economy stimulates the paper to redesign the statistics index system and identification of t

46、he traditional economy. there are great changes in currency and its extending means. chinas macro economy from structure to pace is now experiencing great transformation. and the most profound changes above all are the great changes in ownership structure. therefore, chinas macro economy offers a fi

47、rst-rate sample for the study of worldwide underground economy. the absolute scale of underground economy in chinas macro economy undoubtedly increases continually, while the relative proportion may decrease markedly. this issue is mainly determined by the constant reform of taxation and national ec

48、onomy statistics system in china. china sees rapid development in rural economy, suburb economy, community collective economy, as well as microeconomic, which refers to those third industries with small scale, low technical level, and can easily enter into the market. these economy patterns are exac

49、tly the major breeding ground for underground economy. since there are fatal malpractices in terms of technical means and management arrangements in national taxation administration and statistics administration, its actually almost impossible to implement complete management on these economies. to

50、buy one-dollar beverage in an u.s. supermarket, the computer will show the tax figure legibly, and this is almost impossible in china. maybe some markets with relatively perfect information system can achieve this in 20 or 30 years gradually. there are huge gaps between china and western countries i

51、n terms of technical means utilization, so it seems especially complicated in china to manage national economy and deal with underground economy issues. as there still a unique system issue in china, the government, up to now, has to conduct direct and indirect intervention to many enterprise behavi

52、ors. the individual behaviors of governmental authority sectors still enjoy great consequence in many industries, and this conduces to imperfect market competition. the imperfect competition system becomes right corruption and rake-off to a larger extent. the appearance of agencies can make many regular agency services legalized, but can also make this agency expense another form of right economy. this problem may be a much profound issue and also