修正的时间序列回归法

1、 n xby a x xy b 2 n y a x xaxy b 2 2 2 2 )(xn yxy a x x 2 2 )(xn xynyx b x 销售量时间回归之散点图销售量时间回归之散点图 SUMMARY OUTPUTSUMMARY OUTPUT 回归统计回归统计 Multiple RMultiple R 0.99360.9936 6079260792 方差分方差分 析析 R SquareR Square 0.98730.9873 6176961769 dfdfSSSSMSMSF F SignifiSignifi cance Fcance F Adjusted R Adjusted R

2、SquareSquare 0.98310.9831 4902649026 回归分回归分 析析 1 12.52.52.52.5 234.37234.37 5 5 0.000600.00060 53035303 标准误差标准误差 0.10320.1032 7955679556 残差残差3 30.0320.032 0.01060.0106 6666766667 观测值观测值5 5总计总计4 42.5322.532 CoeffiCoeffi cientscients 标准误标准误 差差 t Statt Stat P-P- valuevalue Lower Lower 95%95% Upper Uppe

3、r 95%95% 下限下限 95.0%95.0% 上限上限 95.0%95.0% InterceptIntercept13.0413.04 0.046180.04618 80228022 282.324282.324 28162816 9.79959.7995 6E-086E-08 12.89312.893 00910091 13.18613.186 99099909 12.893012.8930 091091 13.18613.186 99099909 X Variable X Variable 1 1 0.50.5 0.032650.03265 98639863 15.309315.309

4、3 10891089 0.00060.0006 0530305303 0.39600.3960 6173961739 0.60390.6039 3826138261 0.396060.39606 17391739 0.60390.6039 3826138261 回归分析回归分析 SUMMARY OUTPUTSUMMARY OUTPUT 回归统计回归统计 Multiple Multiple R R 0.993660.99366 07920792 方差分析方差分析 R SquareR Square 0.987360.98736 17691769 dfdfSSSSMSMSF F SignificSi

5、gnific ance Fance F Adjusted Adjusted R SquareR Square 0.983140.98314 90269026 回归分析回归分析1 12.52.52.52.5234.375234.375 0.0006050.000605 303303 标准误差标准误差 0.103270.10327 95569556 残差残差3 30.0320.032 0.010660.01066 66676667 观测值观测值5 5总计总计4 42.5322.532 CoefficCoeffic ientsients 标准误差标准误差t Statt Stat P-P- value

6、value Lower Lower 95%95% Upper Upper 95%95% 下限下限 95.0%95.0% 上限上限 95.0%95.0% InterceptIntercept-983.46-983.46 65.0911265.09112 382382 - - 15.108915.1089 725725 0.00060.0006 2944729447 - - 1190.601190.60 90069006 - - 776.310776.310 99359935 - - 1190.6091190.609 006006 - - 776.310776.310 99359935 X X Variable Variable 1 1 0.50.5 0.0326590.032659 863863 15.309315.3093 10891089 0.00060.0006 0530305303 0.396060.39606 173917