影响中国房地产价格因素及政府政策(英文)

1、13china property marketchina property market: factors that influence and government policiesanita sari satyajack niprisiliayuwonosylvia diana agungles roches jin jiang international hotel management collegestatement of authorshipi certify that this assignment is my own work and contains no material,

2、 which has been submitted as part of an assignment in any institute, college or university. moreover to the best of my knowledge and belief, it contains no material previously published or written by another person, except where due reference is made in the text of the assignment.signed: anita, jack

3、, prisilia, sylvianame:anita, jack, prisilia, sylviaabstractchina, with its rapid growth of economy, has recently encountered a problem in its gross domestic product. real estate industry was overheated in the sense that prices keep on increasing. in major cities in china, housing prices rose consid

4、erably. this has affected peoples living condition adversely as the weak population is not able to afford housing. this paper analyzed the cause of the price surge and how government responded to solving the problem as several measures was taken in order to cool down the property market.keywords: pr

5、operty prices, policies, factorschina property market: factors that influence and government policiesreal estate business in china is undoubtedly one of the most crucial with regards to its contribution to chinas gross domestic products (“more chinese cities see home price rise”, 2012, p.11). since

6、late 1990s, property market has become an important element in chinas national economy (“housing price”, 2010, p. 17). since then, china has been experiencing a rapid increase in property prices. its mainly hit the major cities such as beijing and shanghai. nonetheless, chinese property industry has

7、 recently suffered an overheating situation as prices keep on increasing. this situation is dangerous for china economy, because it creates property bubbles. once the bubbles exploded, prices will deviate further from its value. numerous aspects are to be taken into consideration when analyzing reas

8、ons why this conditions chinas housing in a property bubble.factorsa survey of the real estate supply and demand flexibility in yunan province shows that ratio of property supply and demand, family income, local economic situation, urbanization and interest rate are several factors that influenced t

9、he housing prices (international articles, 2008, p. 60). the urban populations in china are increasing along with urbanization process (“china needs more affordable housing”, 2012). with china being the most populated country in the world, even if there is a small population growth, it will bring a

10、great impact on demand for residences. therefore, the higher the urbanization level, the more demand for residential real estate. under the premise of the inelastic in supply, increased demand will produce a rise in residential real estate prices.on november 5th, 2008, state council executive meetin

11、g issued a series of economic stimulus policies in a row, from speeding up the construction of the housing project for low-income urban residents to accelerating the construction of rural infrastructure, the railway, highway and airport and other major infrastructure constructions.with the total amo

12、unt of 4 trillion yuan（$630 billion), chinese government was hoping to expand domestic demand and reduce the influence of chinas export on gdp when the u.s. subprime mortgage crisis happened (chen&hu, 2012). until october 2012，china gdp remained stable in growth while at the same time chinas individ

13、ual gni (figure 1) and gdp (figure2) experienced a rapid increase. as living condition was improved, consumption backed by a great buying power broke the original equilibrium causing inflation and devaluation of chinese renminbi (rmb).figure 1: china gni per capita (us$)figure 2: china gdp per capit

14、a (us$)according to natural bureau of statistic, starting from september this year, the data states that 35 out of 70 major cities experienced a considerably increase in home price, causing a dramatic decrease of home buyers (“more chinese cities see home price rise”, 2012, p.2). the decreasing numb

15、er of homebuyers has made the government realize that the country will have problems if this number of buyers is still going down so that home prices need to be adjusted to equilibrium. beside governments attempt to control growth, some local authorities have also shown contribution by changing the

16、property policies, in a way that buyers are allowed to borrow more from public housing funds. the central bank that was affected by this situation also contributed to the picked up by giving homebuyers 85 percent discount on mortgage. the peoples bank of china (pboc) cut the bank interest rate twice

17、 as well as the banks requirement ratio to support the economy resulting in a considerable increase of homebuyers as the economy growth eventually improved and the real estate investment accounts toward china gdp output became stable again. furthermore, china index academy also shows that the averag

18、e home prices in 100 cities rose to 0.33 percent in the middle of this year (chinas property market to cool down, 2012, p.1). consequently, complaints regarding the low-income housing in china have been generated from chinese people. fixing the issues, government allocated 20,000 hectares of land an

19、d 47,600 houses in 2012 (“china allocates 20,000 hectares for low income housing”, 2012, p.2). the government has also planned to build around 36 million affordable housing units to meet the demand from low-income households. undertaking this, the number of homebuyers from the weak financial househo

20、lds is expected to rise. another reason is the rising speculative investment in real estate. people have learnt from the past that housing prices are to keep increasing. both real estate companies and wealthy executives have caused the trend on buying a house to resell it again in the future. this,

21、eventually, led to 64.5 million vacant homes in china by 2010, which also contributed to price surge, as most of the vacant houses are luxurious properties in major cities. consumers without sufficient buying power are left behind (“property speculation leaves 64.5 million vacant homes in china”, 20

22、10, p. 1). even though the interest rate was cut twice in governments attempt to curb speculation (“home prices rise in more cities, prompt policy woes”, 2012, p. 1), according to national bureau of statistics, investment in real estate has risen by 15.6 percent from january to august (“peak season,

23、 weak sales”, 2012, p. 1). this, however, did not trigger governments stricter policy to control speculation. instead, a more relaxed strategy was undertaken to easily mortgage credit. based on the research using a long run equilibrium model (mills, hamilton, mapezzi, maclennan, goodman and thibodea

24、u, as cited in hou, 2010, p. 19) on the current speculative bubbles in us real estate, speculation has caused housing price to increase in several cities.furthermore, china believes that physical investment is the most crucial element for economic growth (qin, 2008, p. 284). for this reason, china r

25、elies on the property industry to support economic growth for almost 10% by loosening loan restriction (luhby, 2012) and it represented 30% of chinas gdp (qin, 2008, p. 284). besides, property and land sales are the biggest revenue for chinas government. it can cover up about 40% of their operating

26、budget as well as their debt (luhby, 2012). for the past year government has pushed the property investment and more people have invested on property leading to the number of demand being much higher than property supply of which developers can build. as a result, the housing prices in china are inc

27、reasing rapidly in the past few years especially in major cities such as shanghai, beijing and guangzhou. in 2011, the income ratio to property price in beijing is 36 (buttonwood, 2011), which is higher than other countries with the same issue. based on house-related literature, income ratio to pric

28、e measure the property bubble (yu, 2010, p. 26). this means the ratio above shows the property bubble is also expanding. if this continues, the bubbles will burst. chinas economy will be at risk and government will lose their major income. in order to control the bubble, government takes legal actio

29、ns regarding property issues. however, since real estate market is important for both government and chinas economic growth, government hesitates to restrict the industry (no pain, 2010).government policiessince 2010, chinese government has issued many unprecedented regulation measures in allusion t

30、o the constantly soaring of the price in real estate market in order to ensure the preliminary achievements in stable development of the housing price have been fulfilled (zheng, 2012). firstly, it is manifested by rational decision-making, constraint of irrational demands, and the trend of housing

31、price to be stable (“china to continue property controls in 2013”,2012).the rising home prices in china are expected to continue for several years ahead. as a result, a lot of rich people in the country are trying to buy more than one property for investment. seeing the issue, the government realize

32、s that this will lead china further from social balance where the rich ones will become richer and the number of poor people will increase. to address the issue, government consider to expand its property tax trials, which is believed to be able to curb the rising home prices in china. the governmen

33、t, stuck between controlling property markets and generating adequate revenues, believes that the expansion of the property trials is the right solution to reach a balance (“china may expand property tax in 12”, 2011, p.1). the property tax itself will become one of the main sources for china gdp as

34、 well as contributes to curb the number of home investor, in a way that it will reduce the housing values and consequently lower the demand for land (“expand property tax nationwide: minister”, 2012, p.1).this measure was taken in trying to meet the growing demand of housing. apart from this, govern

35、ment policies also include stepping up the construction and management of low-income housing, expand the scope of property tax trials and bans on third-home purchases as well as flagging exports to curb property market speculation. consumers responsedespite the highest turnover in june that carried

36、on till early august, new homes sales were slow as potential customers were divided into two sides responding to price surge. a survey conducted by soufun, a major real estate website, 30.23 percent of respondents would still buy a house while 51.16 percent chose to wait and see. in relation to pric

37、e elasticity demand, housing market in china has a tendency to be elastic. house sales have showed a sharp decline by 12 to 13 percent in the first half of september 2012 compared to the pervious month as researched by china index academy. hujinghui, the vice-president of 5j5j real estate predicted

38、that price increase is unlikely next year as developers have bought 8.3 million square meters of land in 2011 and planned to build 80,000 units on it. together with another 80,000 units inventory, this huge supply will be sufficient to satisfy the market demand. (“peak season, weak sales”, 2012, p.

39、1).the future of china property markethowever as 2013 is drawing near, the international economic prospect is not optimistic, under the circumstance that the chinese import and export trade are still not seen well, some hope that the chinese government could loosen the real estate market to stimulat

40、e economic growth. yet chinese government will try hard to ensure the overall stability of the real estate market and improve peoples livelihood, which is why chinese government will not loosen the regulation on real estate market easily. in addition, the trial scope of the building tax will be furt

41、her expanded. in the meantime, the more efforts will be exerted to make investment in and construct ordinary commercial houses and various low-income houses to meet the residents rational demands for houses. a contradictory idea emerges in this analysis is that as government tries to boost gdp from

42、property industry, china is driven further away from the social balance in its society. to achieve the continuous sound and healthy development of chinese economy, it is vital to adjust structure and upgrade industry rather than relying on real estate industries.referencesmore chinese cities see hom

43、e price rise. (2012, november 19). china daily, p.2. retrieved from hou, y. (2010). housing price bubbles in beijing and shanghai? international journal of housing markets and analysis, 3(1), 17-37.doi: /10.1108/17538271011027050zhang, h. (2008). international articles: effects of ur

44、ban land supply policy on real estate in china: an econometric analysis. journal of real estate literature, 16(1), 55-62,64,69-72. retrieved from china needs more affordable housing: report. (2012).china daily.retrieved from:chen,j&hu,y.(2012).expertswarnoneconomicstimuluspolicies, china daily.retri

45、eved from:gni per capita, (atlas method current us$)image.(2012). retrieved from:/indicator/ny.gnp.pcap.cd/countries/1w-cn?display=graphgdp per capita (us$)image.(2012).retrieved from: /indicator/ny.gdp.pcap.cd/countries/1w-cn?display=graphchinas property market to cool down. (2012, august 12). china daily, p.1. retri