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1、Peter Pan A000002股 票在明天还会 上涨 到今天为止, A000002股 票出现三天连 续上涨 该股票出现三天 连涨后,第四天 也会上涨 PremiseConclusion Assumption AssumptionAssumption PremisePremise ConclusionConclusion A000002股票 在明天还会上涨 到今天为止, A000002股 票出现三天连 续上涨 根据数据统计, 该股票出现三天 连涨后,第四天 有80% 的情况 都是上涨。 这段时间该股票 的运行情况和以 前第四天出现上 涨的情况相似 中国股市从来没 有规律 Studying r

2、egularly is one factor that has been shown to improve ones performance on the SAT. Melissa took the SAT and Scored a 1500. If she studies several times a weak, Melissa can expect to improve her score. Melissa can expect to improve her score. Studying regularly is one factor that has been shown to im

3、prove ones performance on the SAT. Melissa took the SAT and Scored a 1500. Studying several times a weak qualifies as studying regularly AssumptionAssumption PremisePremise ConclusionConclusion stated pieces of information or evidence that generally provide support for the given conclusion could be

4、Facts, opinions, claims showing background telling a story Several industries have recently switched at least partly from older technologies powered by fossil fuels to new technologies powered by electricity. It is thus evident that less fossil fuel is being used as a result of the operations of the

5、se industries than would have been used if these industries had retained their older technologies. PremiseConclusion Assumption Therefore, As Therefore, As a a result, Suggests, result, Suggests, Indicates, Indicates, Accordingly, So, Accordingly, So, Consequently, Consequently, Thus, Hence, It Thus

6、, Hence, It follows thatfollows that SinceSince Due toDue to As a result ofAs a result of BecauseBecause Given thatGiven that AsAs Manager: the new manufacturing process should save us time in the end, even though the first step of the five-step process will take twice as long as it does under the o

7、ld process. Far fewer of the components will be found defective and the sole purpose of steps two and three under the old process is to weed out defective components. As a result, we should be able to eliminate two of the five steps in the existing manufacturing process. Which of the following would

8、 be most useful in evaluating the claim made in the argument? Therefore TestTherefore Test (1) X, therefore Y. If this works, Y is the conclusion. (2) Y, therefore X. If this works, X is the conclusion. X: The new process should save us time.X: The new process should save us time. Y: we should be ab

9、le to eliminate two of the five steps in the Y: we should be able to eliminate two of the five steps in the processprocess. Curbing government spending has been demonstrated to raise the value of Curbing government spending has been demonstrated to raise the value of a a countrys countrys currency o

10、ver time. However, many economists no longer currency over time. However, many economists no longer recommend recommend this policy. A currency of lesser value causes a countrys this policy. A currency of lesser value causes a countrys exports to exports to be more competitive be more competitive in

11、 the international market, encouraging in the international market, encouraging domestic domestic industries industries and making the economy more attractive to foreign and making the economy more attractive to foreign investmentinvestment. . The The statements above most strongly support which of

12、the statements above most strongly support which of the following following inferencesinferences? ? (A) Limited government spending can also lead to a reduction in A) Limited government spending can also lead to a reduction in the the national national deficit.deficit. (B) (B) Curbing government spe

13、nding can make a countrys exports Curbing government spending can make a countrys exports less less competitivecompetitive. . (C) Many economists now recommend higher levels of (C) Many economists now recommend higher levels of government spendinggovernment spending. . (D) (D) An increase in the val

14、ue of a currency will result in reduced An increase in the value of a currency will result in reduced government spendinggovernment spending. . (E)Competitive exports indicate a-weak currency(E)Competitive exports indicate a-weak currency. . Curbing government spending has been demonstrated to raise

15、 the value of Curbing government spending has been demonstrated to raise the value of a a countrys countrys currency over time. However, many economists no longer currency over time. However, many economists no longer recommend recommend this policy. A currency of lesser value causes a countrys this

16、 policy. A currency of lesser value causes a countrys exports to exports to be more competitive be more competitive in the international market, encouraging in the international market, encouraging domestic domestic industries industries and making the economy more attractive to foreign and making t

17、he economy more attractive to foreign investmentinvestment. . The The statements above most strongly support which of the statements above most strongly support which of the following following inferencesinferences? ? (A) Limited government spending can also lead to a A) Limited government spending

18、can also lead to a reduction in reduction in the national the national deficit.deficit. (B) (B) Curbing government spending can make a Curbing government spending can make a countrys exports countrys exports less competitiveless competitive. . (C) Many economists now recommend higher levels of (C) M

19、any economists now recommend higher levels of government spendinggovernment spending. . (D) (D) An increase in the value of a currency will An increase in the value of a currency will result in reduced result in reduced government spendinggovernment spending. . (E)Competitive exports indicate (E)Com

20、petitive exports indicate a weak a weak currencycurrency. . F F)Government Government investment investment can make a countrys can make a countrys exports less competitive.exports less competitive. 超超出出前提讨论范围前提讨论范围 超出前提讨论范围超出前提讨论范围 偷换概念偷换概念 因果倒置因果倒置 因果倒置因果倒置 Increases in the level of high-density l

21、ipoprotein (HDL) in the human bloodstream lower bloodstream-cholesterol levels by increasing the body capacity to rid itself of excess cholesterol. Levels of HDL in the bloodstream of some individuals are significantly increased by a program of regular exercise and weight reduction. Which of the fol

22、lowing can be correctly inferred from the statements above? A.Individuals who are underweight do not run any risk of developing high level of cholesterol in the bloodstream. B.Individuals who do not exercise regularly have a high risk of developing high level of cholesterol in the bloodstream late i

23、n life. C.Exercise and weight reduction are the most effective methods of lowering bloodstream cholesterol levels in humans. D.A program of regular exercise and weight reduction lowers cholesterol levels in the bloodstream of some individuals. E.Only regular exercise is necessary to decrease cholest

24、erol levels in the bloodstream of individuals of average weight. The average fuel efficiency of vehicles sold nationwide during the period 2000-2004 was 25 miles per gallon; the corresponding figure during the period 1995-1999 was 20 miles per gallon. The national average price of gasoline during th

25、e period 2000-2004 was $2 per gallon; the corresponding figure during the period 1995-1999 was $1.60 per gallon. The statements above, if true, best support which of the following conclusions? (A) The average fuel efficiency of vehicles sold nationwide should reach 30 miles per gallon for the period

26、 2005-2009. (B) The national average price of gasoline during 1997 was lower than the corresponding price during 2003. (C) Rising gasoline prices lead consumers to purchase more fuel- efficient cars. (D) Between the two described time periods, the national average fuel efficiency and the national av

27、erage gasoline price both increased at roughly the same rate. (E) Consumers spent more money on gasoline during the period 2060-2004 than during the period 1995-1999. Logic fallacies In certain congested urban areas, commuters who use public transportation options, such as trains and subways, spend

28、approximately 25 percent less time in transit, on average, to reach their destinations than commuters who travel by car. Even individuals who drive their entire commute in carpool lanes, which are typically the least congested sections of roadways, still spend more time, on average, than commuters w

29、ho use trains and subways. The statements above, if true, best support which of the following assertions about commuting in the congested urban areas mentioned above? (A) Waiting in traffic accounts for approximately 25 percent of the commuting time for individuals who drive to their destinations. (

30、8) Walking between a subway or train station and ones final destination does not, on average, take longer than walking between ones car and ones final destination. (C) Using carpool lanes does not, on average, reduce driving time by more than 25 percent. (D) Individuals who commute via public buses

31、spend approximately 25 percent more time in transit than those who commute using public trains or subways. (E)Subways and trains are available in the majority of congested urban areas. (A) Viewers are more interested in sports and weather than in personal interest stories. (B) The programming conten

32、t of Nighttime News is more closely aligned with the interests of the overall audience than is the content of World News. (C) Some World News viewers liked the new Nighttime News programming better than they liked the World News programming. (D) There are other possible causes for an increase in the

33、 number of viewers of Nighttime News, including a recent ad campaign that aired on many local affiliates. (E) The quality of World News will remain constant even if Nighttime News improves. For several years, Nighttime News attracted fewer viewers than World News, which broadcasts its show at the sa

34、me time as Nighttime News . Recently, the producers of Nighttime News added personal interest stories and increased coverage of sports and weather. The two programs now have a roughly equal number of viewers. Clearly, the recent programming changes persuaded viewers to switch from World News to Nigh

35、ttime News. Which of the following is an assumption on which the author relies? (1) bridge a gap between any premise and the conclusion, and (2) support/ strengthen/validate the conclusion. PremiseConclusion Assumption The local university recently hired a new soccer coach. Although she has several

36、years worth of coaching experience and is a diligent student of the game, she was never a member of a collegiate soccer team. For this reason, the new coach will be unable to build a successful program. The argument above is based on which of the following assumptions? (A) The local university shoul

37、d have hired a former collegiate soccer player as its new coach. (B) Coaching experience is one of the most crucial factors for coaching success. (C) The previous coach at the university was dismissed due to her lack of success (D) To build a successful soccer program as a coach, one must be a forme

38、r collegiate soccer player. (E) The university does not plan to provide the new coach with the resources necessary to build a successful program. 紧跟紧跟结论,不能转移话题重心结论,不能转移话题重心 紧跟结论紧跟结论 When news periodicals begin forecasting a recession, people tend to spend less money on discretionary purchases. There

39、fore, the perceived threat of recession decreases the willingness of people to purchase products that they regard as optional or luxury goods. The argument above assumes that _ (A) there are more luxury goods available after a recession is forecast (B) recently, the threat of recession has been incr

40、easingly publicized as news periodicals have grown more pervasive (C) most people do not regularly read news periodicals (D) peoples perception of the threat of recession increases when news periodicals begin forecasting a recession (E) the people who spent the most money before a recession was fore

41、cast were among those who curtailed their spending after the recession became apparent 紧跟结论紧跟结论 PremiseConclusion Assumption News periodicals publish the forecast of a recession People spend less money on discretionary items Therefore, the perceived threat causes people to spend less money As a resu

42、lt, peoples perception of the threat of a recession increases As a result, peoples perception of the threat of a recession does not does not increases Negating any correct assumption will destroy the argument 紧跟结论紧跟结论 Sam is currently the deputy mayor of Geneva County. Therefore, Sam should be the n

43、ext mayor of Geneva when the current mayor retires Which of the following is an assumption on which the author relies? Imagine two possible answer choices: (A) Sam is the most honest person in the whole county. (B) The deputy mayor is always the best person to become the next mayor when a current ma

44、yor retires. Sam is NOT NECESSARILY the most honest person in the whole county. The deputy mayor is NOT NECESSARILY the best person to become the next mayor when a current mayor retires. Always. only. all: insert Not necessarily. or Some . not in place of All. (B) Tomatoes are always red. LEN: Tomat

45、oes are NOT NECESSARILY always red. Never. none, not one. not once: change to At least one or at least once. (D) Not one player was late for practice. LEN: AT LEAST ONE player was late for practice. Some, a few, several: change to No or None. (Notice that this may sound extreme) (A) Some cats purr w

46、hen you pet them. LEN: NO cats purr when you pet them. Sometimes, on Occasion, often: change to Never. (Notice that this may sound extreme) (A) Cats sometimes purr when you pet them. LEN: Cats NEVER purr when you pet them. At least, at most. more than, less than: change to the mathematically opposit

47、e term. (C) She has at least three different job offers. LEN: She has LESS THAN THREE different job offers. 紧跟结论紧跟结论 For several years, Nighttime News attracted fewer viewers than World News, which broadcasts its show at the same time as Nighttime News Recently, the producers of Nighttime News added

48、 personal interest stories and increased coverage of sports and weather. The two programs now have a roughly equal number of viewers. Clearly, the recent programming changes persuaded viewers to switch from World News to Nighttime News. Which of the following is an assumption on which the author rel

49、ies? (A) Viewers are more interested in sports and weather than in personal interest stories. (B) The programming content of Nighttime News is more closely aligned with the interests of the overall audience than is the content of World News. (C) Some World News viewers liked the new Nighttime News p

50、rogramming better than they liked the World News programming. (0) There are other possible causes for an increase in the number of viewers of Nighttime News, including a recent ad campaign that aired on many local affiliates. (E) The quality of World News will remain constant even if Nighttime News

51、improves. Assumptions can serve to fill in a logic gap Assumptions can establish the feasibility of the premises of the argument Assumptions can eliminate alternate paths to reach a given conclusion Categories of Assumption Sidneys get-rich-quick scheme is sure to succeed. He will buy Sidneys get-ri

52、ch-quick scheme is sure to succeed. He will buy undervalued properties undervalued properties in foreclosure. Then he will resell the in foreclosure. Then he will resell the properties to properties to a local real estate a local real estate developer and generate large developer and generate large

53、fits. Undervalued Undervalued properties exist in foreclosure properties exist in foreclosure and easily and easily can be found can be found and purchased by Sidney.and purchased by Sidney. Assumptions can serve to fill in a logic gap Assumptions can establish the feasibility of the prem

54、ises of the argument Assumptions can eliminate alternate paths to reach a given conclusion Assumptions can eliminate alternate causes for a given conclusion. Categories of Assumption A magazine published an article proclaiming that one can get a A magazine published an article proclaiming that one c

55、an get a promotion by promotion by playing golf with ones boss. Kevin concludes that the playing golf with ones boss. Kevin concludes that the best way for him best way for him to get to get promoted is to take golf lessons and join his promoted is to take golf lessons and join his bosss country clu

56、bbosss country club. . There There are no other better ways to gain a are no other better ways to gain a promotion than promotion than to play golf to play golf with ones boss.with ones boss. Assumptions can serve to fill in a logic gap Assumptions can establish the feasibility of the premises of th

57、e argument Assumptions can eliminate alternate paths to reach a given conclusion Assumptions can eliminate alternate causes for a given conclusion. Categories of Assumption Scientists have discovered that people with Elmers disease have Scientists have discovered that people with Elmers disease have

58、 elevatedelevated levels of elastomer in their blood.levels of elastomer in their blood. The scientists concluded that a person without Elmers The scientists concluded that a person without Elmers disease but disease but with elevated with elevated levels of elastomer in the blood is likely to devel

59、op levels of elastomer in the blood is likely to develop Elmers disease Elmers disease in the in the future.future. Correlation but not causation Elmers disease is not the cause of the elastomer Elmers disease is not the cause of the elastomer levelslevels Economists have noticed that countries with

60、 more developed cultures ofEconomists have noticed that countries with more developed cultures of entrepreneurship entrepreneurship and risk-taking have higher and risk-taking have higher economic economic growth rates.growth rates. Therefore, they have concluded that cultures of entrepreneurship an

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