思考问题的5个步骤

1、来自新加坡的国际咨询机构来自新加坡的国际咨询机构 1 机密：此资料仅供内部参考。未经开锐咨询的书面许 可，其它任何机构不得擅自传阅、引用或复制。 2007年8月 思考问题的思考问题的5个步骤个步骤 Share your talent, Build our co-vision! 2 咨询顾问思考和解决企业问题时有三大基本原咨询顾问思考和解决企业问题时有三大基本原 则则 以事实为基础 以假设为导向严格的结构化 3 和一套行之有效的解决问题的方法和一套行之有效的解决问题的方法 第一步第一步 陈述/定义问题 第二步第二步 分解问题 第三步第三步 剔除所有的非关键问题 第四步第四步 制定详细的工作计划和

2、 研究计划 第五步第五步 进行关键分析 第六步第六步 综合结果，提出论点和 建议 第七步第七步 准备强有力的沟通 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ? . . . . . . . . . . 项目的时间长项目的时间长 度和范围取决度和范围取决 于议题及可用于议题及可用 的资源的资源 4 Step 1 State the problem Step 2 Disaggregate the issues Step 3 Eliminate all non-key issues Step 4 Conduct critical analyses, porpoise betwee

3、n data and hypotheses Step 5 Synthesize findings and build argument ? 其中思考问题的步骤有五个其中思考问题的步骤有五个 5 Clear statement of problem to be solved or issue to be resolved Characteristics of a good problem statement A leading question or firm hypothesis Specific not general Not a statement of fact or non-dispu

4、table assertion Actionable Focuses on what the decision maker needs to move forward ? Interviewer states the problem Problem has been clearly stated, and you understand it Problem has NOT been clearly stated, or you dont understand it You must clearly understand the problem Paraphrase the problem to

5、 make sure you have it right Ask questions to clarify the issue Step 2. You are responsible for ensuring the clarity of the problem STEP 1: 陈述陈述/定义问题定义问题 6 STEP 2: 构建分析框架，分解问题构建分析框架，分解问题 Why use logic trees? 1. To break a problem into component parts so that Problem-solving work can be divided into

6、intellectually manageable pieces Priorities can be set among the parts Responsibilities can be allocated to individuals 2. To ensure that the integrity of the problem solving is maintained Solving the parts will really solve the problem The parts are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive (i

7、.e., no overlaps, no gaps) Subissue Subissue Subissue Subissue Subissue Subissue Issues/hypothesis No. 1 Issues/hypothesis No. 2 Issues/hypothesis No. 3 Problem statement Suggestions - Describe your approach to the interviewer as you proceed. Dont assume they know what you are thinking! - State your

8、 hypotheses as crisply as possible. - Only use frameworks if they are appropriate - dont force fit. - The ideas are important, not the framework. “I think we should look at the power of buyers and industry competitiveness” is better than “Id like to apply part of the Porter Five Forces framework”. 7

9、 STEP 3: 去除非关键问题去除非关键问题 Why First step in constant, interactive refinement process Focuses your effort on what is most important Dos & Donts Always ask yourself “so what” . . . but also ask yourself what you might have missed Tell the interviewer what you are cutting and why Problem statement Issue

10、1 Issue 2 Issue 3 Issue 4 8 STEP 4: 基于数据和假设深入分析关键问题基于数据和假设深入分析关键问题 Dos Be hypothesis-driven and end products- oriented “Porpoise” frequently between hypothesis and data Keep the analyses as simple as you can. Be suspicious of huge linear programs and their ilk. Do order of magnitude estimates before

11、 you start detailed analyses Use 80/20 and back-of-envelope thinking Do not be afraid to be creative Donts Do not just “run the numbers” ask yourself “what question am I trying to answer?” Do not chase your tail Do you really need to calculate the WACC? Dont miss the forest for the trees. Beware of

12、“polishing dirt” Look for breakthrough thinking 9 STEP 5: 综合分析结果，提出论点和建议综合分析结果，提出论点和建议 Complication Situation Resolution Use situation, complication, resolution format Pyramid structure or decision tree Main assertion Supporting data Supporting data Supporting data Supporting data Question Sub-asser

13、tionSub-assertion Question Question YesAction 1 NoAction 2 YesAction 3 NoAction 4 and / or State the conditions at point of problem Flesh out barriers to improving situation Lay out possible solution path 10 STEP 2是最关键的步骤，必须使用是最关键的步骤，必须使用MECE法则严法则严 格结构化问题，这是思考问题的起点和终点格结构化问题，这是思考问题的起点和终点 MECE是“Mutual

14、ly Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive”四个词的字首组合，意为“相互独立，完全穷 尽”。在解决问题的过程中，MECE意味着将问题细分为明确的、没有重叠的子问题，同时确保所 有相关的问题都已考虑在内。 一个好的理论框架都是MECE的，例如科特勒的4P、波特的5力、广为人知的SWOT分析、人机料法 环、CQT等都是MECE的，这些现成的理论帮助我们快速深入的建立起思考问题的框架。但有些时 候，我们无法利用现成的理论框架，此时就要求我们自行建构一个分析框架，一定要注意必须符合 MECE原则。 控制过 程简单 增长快于行业在财务上产生正面影响接管和融合容易 市场份额

15、 大 零售店的 竞争力弱 成本 降低 销售 增加 利润 增长 业务 独立 管理人员不 变 为什么？ 购买一家大型的连锁店 为什么？ 举例举例 11 举例：卖旧车前的准备举例：卖旧车前的准备 没有结构化前，简单的罗列事项： Fix hole in roof 修 理 车 顶 的 破 洞 Get new floormats 买 新 的 车 内 地 毯 Write newspaper ad 写 报 纸 广 告 稿 Get new overhead light 买 新 的 顶 灯 Fix the dents 修 理 车 身 凹 陷 处 Get rust spots painted over 把 锈 斑

16、喷 漆 Make sign for rear window 写 後 窗 售 车 广 告 Write announcement for bulletin board 写 公 告 板 的 售 车 海 报 1. 9.Vacuum interior 将 车 内 吸 尘 12 结构化结构化 1.Fix hole in roof 修 理 车 顶 的 破 洞 2.Get new floormats 买 新 的 车 内 地 毯 3.Write newspaper ad 写 报 纸 广 告 稿 4.Get new overhead light 买 新 的 顶 灯 5.Fix the dents 修 理 车 身

17、凹 陷 处 6.Get rust spots painted over 把 锈 斑 喷 漆 7.Make sign for rear window 写 後 窗 售 车 广 告 8.Write announcement for bulletin board 写 公 告 板 的 售 车 海 报 9.Vacuum interior 将 车 内 吸 尘 Get bodywork done (at bodyshop) ( 在 车 体 修 理 工 场 ) 修 理 车 体 Spruce up interior (at gas station) ( 在 汽 油 站 ) 把 车 内 部 打 理 乾 净 Prepare advertisements (at home) ( 在 家 里 ) 准 备 广 告 13 Vacuum 吸 尘 Prepare to sell the car 准 备 出 售 汽 车 Fix hole in roof 修 理 车 顶 的 破 洞 Fix dents 修 理 车 身 凹 陷 处