supplychain management ppt_ch06PPT学习教案

1、会计学1 supplychain management ppt_ch06 6-2 nAM Tires: Evaluation of Global Supply Chain Decisions Under Uncertainty in Practice nSummary of Learning Objectives 第1页/共37页 6-3 第2页/共37页 6-4 第3页/共37页 6-5 第4页/共37页 6-6 第5页/共37页 6-7 第6页/共37页 6-8 return of rate flowscash of stream thisof luepresent vanet the p

2、eriods Tover flowscash of stream a is ,., where 1 1 1 1 factor Discount 10 1 0 k NPV CCC C k CNPV k T T t t t Compare NPV of different supply chain design options The option with the highest NPV will provide the greatest financial return 第7页/共37页 6-9 第8页/共37页 6-10 For leasing warehouse space on the

3、spot market: Expected annual profit = 100,000 x $1.22 100,000 x $1.20 = $2,000 Cash flow = $2,000 in each of the next three years 471, 5$ 1 . 1 2000 1 . 1 2000 2000 11 lease) (no 2 2 21 0 k C k C CNPV 第9页/共37页 6-11 For leasing warehouse space with a three-year lease: Expected annual profit = 100,000

4、 x $1.22 100,000 x $1.00 = $22,000 Cash flow = $22,000 in each of the next three years 182,60$ 1 . 1 22000 1 . 1 22000 22000 11 lease) (no 2 2 21 0 k C k C CNPV The NPV of signing the lease is $54,711 higher; therefore, the manager decides to sign the lease However, uncertainty in demand and costs m

5、ay cause the manager to rethink his decision 第10页/共37页 6-12 第11页/共37页 6-13 第12页/共37页 6-14 第13页/共37页 6-15 第14页/共37页 6-16 第15页/共37页 6-17 第16页/共37页 6-18 第17页/共37页 6-19 第18页/共37页 6-20 第19页/共37页 6-21 D=144 p=$1.45 D=144 p=$1.19 D=96 p=$1.45 D=144 p=$0.97 D=96 p=$1.19 D=96 p=$0.97 D=64 p=$1.45 D=64 p=$1.1

6、9 D=64 p=$0.97 D=120 p=$1.32 D=120 p=$1. 08 D=80 p=$1.32 D=80 p=$1.32 D=100 p=$1.20 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Period 0 Period 1 Period 2 第20页/共37页 6-22 nProfit at other nodes is shown in Table 6.1 第21页/共37页 6-23 第22页/共37页 6-24 第23页/共37页 6-25 第24页/共37页 6-26 第25页/共37页 6-27 market is give

7、n by NPV(Spot Market) = $5,471 第26页/共37页 6-28 第27页/共37页 6-29 第28页/共37页 6-30 第29页/共37页 6-31 Dedicated PlantFlexible PlantPlant Fixed CostVariable CostFixed CostVariable Cost US 100,000$1 million/yr.$15 / tire$1.1 million / year $15 / tire Mexico 50,000 4 million pesos / year 110 pesos / tire 4.4 mill

8、ion pesos / year 110 pesos / tire U.S. Expected Demand = 100,000; Mexico Expected Demand = 50,000 1US$ = 9 pesos Demand goes up or down by 20 percent with probability 0.5 and exchange rate goes up or down by 25 per cent with probability 0.5. 第30页/共37页 6-32 RU=100 RM=50 E=9 Period 0Period 1 Period 2

9、RU=120 RM = 60 E=11.25 RU=120 RM = 60 E=6.75 RU=120 RM = 40 E=11.25 RU=120 RM = 40 E=6.75 RU=80 RM = 60 E=11.25 RU=80 RM = 60 E=6.75 RU=80 RM = 40 E=11.25 RU=80 RM = 40 E=6.75 RU=144 RM = 72 E=14.06 RU=144 RM = 72 E=8.44 RU=144 RM = 48 E=14.06 RU=144 RM = 48 E=8.44 RU=96 RM = 72 E=14.06 RU=96 RM = 7

10、2 E=8.44 RU=96 RM = 48 E=14.06 RU=96 RM = 48 E=8.44 第31页/共37页 6-33 Four possible capacity scenarios: Both dedicated Both flexible U.S. flexible, Mexico dedicated U.S. dedicated, Mexico flexible For each node, solve the demand allocation model: PlantsMarkets U.S. Mexico U.S. Mexico 第32页/共37页 6-34 Sou

11、rceDestinationVariable cost Shipping cost ESale priceMargin ($) U.S.U.S.$15014.06$30$15 U.S.Mexico$15$114.06240 pesos$1.1 MexicoU.S.110 pesos$114.06$30$21.2 MexicoMexico110 pesos014.06240 pesos$9.2 PlantsMarkets U.S. Mexico U.S. Mexico 100,000 44,000 6,000 Profit (flexible) = $1,075,055 Profit (dedicated) = $649,360 100,000 50,000 第33页/共37页 6-35 Plant Configuration United StatesMexico NPV DedicatedDedicated$1,629,319 FlexibleDedicated$1,514,322 DedicatedFlexible$1,7