（精选）了解中国的崛起演讲稿

1、了解中国的崛起演讲稿 theworldischangingwithreallyremarkablespeed.ifyoulookatthechartatthetophere，youllseethatin2021，thesegoldmansachsprojectionssuggestthatthechineseeconomywillbealmostthesamesizeastheamericaneconomy.andifyoulookatthechartfor2021，itsprojectedthatthechineseeconomywillbetwicethesizeoftheamerican

2、economy，andtheindianeconomywillbealmostthesamesizeastheamericaneconomy.andweshouldbearinmindherethattheseprojectionsweredrawnupbeforethewesternfinancialcrisis. acoupleofweeksago，iwaslookingatthelatestprojectionbybnpparibasforwhenchinawillhavealargereconomythantheunitedstates.goldmansachsprojected202

3、1.thepost-crisisprojectionis2021.thatsjustadecadeaway.chinaisgoingtochangetheworldintwofundamentalrespects.firstofall，itsahugedevelopingcountrywithapopulationof1.3billionpeople，whichhasbeengrowingforover30yearsataround10percentayear. andwithinadecade，itwillhavethelargesteconomyintheworld.neverbefore

4、inthemodernerahasthelargesteconomyintheworldbeenthatofadevelopingcountry，ratherthanadevelopedcountry.secondly，forthefirsttimeinthemodernera，thedominantcountryintheworld-whichithinkiswhatchinawillbecome-willbenotfromthewestandfromvery，verydifferentcivilizationalroots. nowiknowitsawidespreadassumption

5、inthewestthat，ascountriesmodernize，theyalsowesternize.thisisanillusion.itsanassumptionthatmodernityisaproductsimplyofcompetition，marketsandtechnology.itisnot;itisalsoshapedequallybyhistoryandculture.chinaisnotlikethewest，anditwillnotbecomelikethewest.itwillremaininveryfundamentalrespectsverydifferen

6、t.nowthebigquestionhereisobviously，howdowemakesenseofchina。howdowetrytounderstandwhatchinais。andtheproblemwehaveinthewestatthemomentby-and-largeisthattheconventionalapproachisthatweunderstanditreallyinwesternterms，usingwesternideas.wecant.nowiwanttoofferyouthreebuildingblocksfortryingtounderstandwha

7、tchinaislike-justasabeginning. thefirstisthis，thatchinaisnotreallyanationstate.okay，itscalleditselfanationstateforthelasthundredyears.buteveryonewhoknowsanythingaboutchinaknowsitsalotolderthanthis.thiswaswhatchinalookedlikewiththevictoryoftheqindynastyin221b.c.attheendofthewarringstateperiod-thebirt

8、hofmodernchina.andyoucanseeitagainsttheboundariesofmodernchina.orimmediatelyafterward，thehandynasty，still2，000yearsago.andyoucanseealreadyitoccupiesmostofwhatwenowknowaseasternchina，whichiswherethevastmajorityofchineselivedthenandlivenow. nowwhatisextraordinaryaboutthisis，whatgiveschinaitssenseofbei

9、ngchina，whatgivesthechinesethesenseofwhatitistobechinese，comesnotfromthelasthundredyears，notfromthenationstateperiod，whichiswhathappenedinthewest，butfromtheperiod，ifyoulike，ofthecivilizationstate.imthinkinghere，forexample，ofcustomslikeancestralworship，ofaverydistinctivenotionofthestate，likewise，aver

10、ydistinctivenotionofthefamily，socialrelationshipslikeguanxi，confucianvaluesandsoon.theseareallthingsthatcomefromtheperiodofthecivilizationstate.inotherwords，china，unlikethewesternstatesandmostcountriesintheworld，isshapedbyitssenseofcivilization，itsexistenceasacivilizationstate，ratherthanasanationsta

11、te.andtheresoneotherthingtoaddtothis，andthatisthis：ofcourseweknowchinasbig，huge，demographicallyandgeographically，withapopulationof1.3billionpeople.whatweoftenarentreallyawareofisthefactthatchinaisextremelydiverseandverypluralistic，andinmanywaysverydecentralized.youcantrunaplaceonthisscalesimplyfromb

12、eijing，eventhoughwethinkthistobethecase.itsneverbeenthecase. sothisischina，acivilizationstate，ratherthananationstate.andwhatdoesitmean。wellithinkithasallsortsofprofoundimplications.illgiveyoutwoquickones.thefirstisthatthemostimportantpoliticalvalueforthechineseisunity，isthemaintenanceofchinesecivili

13、zation.youknow，2，000yearsago，europe：breakdown，thefragmentationoftheholyromanempireromanempire.itdivided，anditsremaineddividedeversince.china，overthesametimeperiod，wentinexactlytheoppositedirection，verypainfullyholdingthishugecivilization，civilizationstatetogether. thesecondismaybemoreprosaic，whichis

14、hongkong.doyourememberthehandoverofhongkongbybritaintochinain1997。youmayrememberwhatthechineseconstitutionalpropositionwas.onecountry，twosystems.andilllayawagerthatbarelyanyoneinthewestbelievedthem.”windowdressing.whenchinagetsitshandsonhongkong，thatwontbethecase.”13yearson，thepoliticalandlegalsyste

15、minhongkongisasdifferentnowasitwasin1997.wewerewrong.whywerewewrong。wewerewrongbecausewethought，naturallyenough，innationstateways.thinkofgermanunification，1990.whathappened。well，basicallytheeastwasswallowedbythewest.onenation，onesystem.thatisthenationstatementality.butyoucantrunacountrylikechina，aci

16、vilizationstate，onthebasisofonecivilization，onesystem.itdoesntwork.soactuallytheresponseofchinatothequestionofhongkong-asitwillbetothequestionoftaiwan-wasanaturalresponse：onecivilization，manysystems. letmeofferyouanotherbuildingblocktotryandunderstandchina-maybenotsuchacomfortableone.thechinesehavea

17、very，verydifferentconceptionofracetomostothercountries.doyouknow，ofthe1.3billionchinese，over90percentofthemthinktheybelongtothesamerace，thehan.nowthisiscompletelydifferentfromtheotherworldsmostpopulouscountries.india，theunitedstates，indonesia，brazil-allofthemaremultiracial.thechinesedontfeellikethat

18、.chinaisonlymultiracialreallyatthemargins.sothequestionis，why。wellthereason，ithink，essentiallyis，again，backtothecivilizationstate.ahistoryofatleast2，000years，ahistoryofconquest，occupation，absorption，assimilationandsoon，ledtotheprocessbywhich，overtime，thisnotionofthehanemerged-ofcourse，nurturedbyagro

19、wingandverypowerfulsenseofculturalidentity. nowthegreatadvantageofthishistoricalexperiencehasbeenthat，withoutthehan，chinacouldneverhaveheldtogether.thehanidentityhasbeenthecementwhichhasheldthiscountrytogether.thegreatdisadvantageofitisthatthehanhaveaveryweakconceptionofculturaldifference.theyreally

20、believeintheirownsuperiority，andtheyaredisrespectfulofthosewhoarenot.hencetheirattitude，forexample，totheuyghursandtothetibetans. orletmegiveyoumythirdbuildingblock，thechinesestate.nowtherelationshipbetweenthestateandsocietyinchinaisverydifferentfromthatinthewest.nowweinthewestoverwhelminglyseemtothi

21、nk-inthesedaysatleast-thattheauthorityandlegitimacyofthestateisafunctionofdemocracy.theproblemwiththispropositionisthatthechinesestateenjoysmorelegitimacyandmoreauthorityamongstthechinesethanistruewithanywesternstate.andthereasonforthisisbecause-well，therearetworeasons，ithink.anditsobviouslygotnothi

22、ngtodowithdemocracy，becauseinourtermsthechinesecertainlydonthaveademocracy.andthereasonforthisis，firstly，becausethestateinchinaisgivenaveryspecial-itenjoysaveryspecialsignificanceastherepresentative，theembodimentandtheguardianofchinesecivilization，ofthecivilizationstate.thisisascloseaschinagetstoaki

23、ndofspiritualrole. andthesecondreasonisbecause，whereasineuropeandnorthamerica，thestatespoweriscontinuouslychallenged-imeanintheeuropeantradition，historicallyagainstthechurch，againstothersectorsofthearistocracy，againstmerchantsandsoon-for1，000years，thepowerofthechinesestatehasnotbeenchallenged.itshad

24、noseriousrivals.soyoucanseethatthewayinwhichpowerhasbeenconstructedinchinaisverydifferentfromourexperienceinwesternhistory.theresult，bytheway，isthatthechinesehaveaverydifferentviewofthestate.whereaswetendtoviewitasanintruder，astranger，certainlyanorganwhosepowersneedtobelimitedordefinedandconstrained

25、，thechinesedontseethestatelikethatatall.thechineseviewthestateasanintimate-notjustasanintimateactually，asamemberofthefamily-notjustinfactasamemberofthefamily，butastheheadofthefamily，thepatriarchofthefamily.thisisthechineseviewofthestate-very，verydifferenttoours.itsembeddedinsocietyinadifferentkindof

26、waytowhatisthecaseinthewest. andiwouldsuggesttoyouthatactuallywhatwearedealingwithhere，inthechinesecontext，isanewkindofparadigm，whichisdifferentfromanythingwevehadtothinkaboutinthepast.knowthatchinabelievesinthemarketandthestate.imean，adamsmith，alreadywritinginthelate18thcenturysaid，”thechinesemarke

27、tislargerandmoredevelopedandmoresophisticatedthananythingineurope.”and，apartfromthemaoperiod，thathasremainedmore-or-lessthecaseeversince.butthisiscombinedwithanextremelystrongandubiquitousstate.thestateiseverywhereinchina.imean，itsleadingfirms，manyofthemarestillpubliclyowned.privatefirms，howeverlarg

28、etheyare，likelenovo，dependinmanywaysonstatepatronage.targetsfortheeconomyandsoonaresetbythestate.andthestate，ofcourse，itsauthorityflowsintolotsofotherareas-aswearefamiliarwith-withsomethinglikethetheone-childpolicy. moreover，thisisaveryoldstatetradition，averyoldtraditionofstatecraft.imean，ifyouwanta

29、nillustrationofthis，thegreatwallisone.butthisisanother，thisisthegrandcanal，whichwasconstructedinthefirstinstanceinthefifthcenturyb.c.andwasfinallycompletedintheseventhcenturya.d.itwentfor1，114miles，linkingbeijingwithhangzhouandshanghai.sotheresalonghistoryofextraordinarystateinfrastructuralprojectsi

30、nchina，whichisupposehelpsustoexplainwhatweseetoday，whichissomethinglikethethreegorgesdamandmanyotherexpressionsofstatecompetencewithinchina.sotherewehavethreebuildingblocksfortryingtotounderstandthedifferencethatischina-thecivilizationstate，thenotionofraceandthenatureofthestateanditsrelationshiptoso

31、ciety. andyetwestillinsist，by-and-large，inthinkingthatwecanunderstandchinabysimplydrawingonwesternexperience，lookingatitthroughwesterneyes，usingwesternconcepts.ifyouwanttoknowwhyweunerringlyseemtogetchinawrong-ourpredictionsaboutwhatsgoingtohappentochinaareincorrect-thisisthereason.unfortunatelyithi

32、nk，ihavetosaythatithinkattitudetowardschinaisthatofakindoflittlewesternermentality.itskindofarrogant.itsarrogantinthesensethatwethinkthatwearebest，andthereforewehavetheuniversalmeasure.andsecondly，itsignorant.werefusetoreallyaddresstheissueofdifference.youknow，theresaveryinterestingpassageinabookbyp

33、aulcohen，theamericanhistorian.andpaulcohenarguesthatthewestthinksofitselfasprobablythemostcosmopolitanofallcultures.butitsnot.inmanyways，itsthemostparochial，becausefor200years，thewesthasbeensodominantintheworldthatitsnotreallyneededtounderstandothercultures，othercivilizations.because，attheendoftheda

34、y，itcould，ifnecessarybyforce，getitsownway.whereasthosecultures-virtuallytherestoftheworld，infact-whichhavebeeninafarweakerposition，vis-a-visthewest，havebeentherebyforcedtounderstandthewest，becauseofthewestspresenceinthosesocieties.andtherefore，theyare，asaresult，morecosmopolitaninmanywaysthanthewest.

35、 imean，takethequestionofeastasia.eastasia：japan，korea，china，etc.-athirdoftheworldspopulationlivesthere，nowthelargesteconomicregionintheworld.andilltellyounow，thateastasianers，peoplefromeastasia，arefarmoreknowledgeableaboutthewestthanthewestisabouteastasia.nowthispointisverygermane，imafraid，tothepres

36、ent.becausewhatshappening。backtothatchartatthebeginning-thegoldmansachschart.whatishappeningisthat，veryrapidlyinhistoricalterms，theworldisbeingdrivenandshaped，notbytheolddevelopedcountries，butbythedevelopingworld.weveseenthisintermsoftheg20-usurpingveryrapidlythepositionoftheg7，ortheg8.andtherearetw

37、oconsequencesofthis.first，thewestisrapidlylosingitsinfluenceintheworld.therewasadramaticillustrationofthisactuallyayearago-copenhagen，climatechangeconference.europewasnotatthefinalnegotiatingtable.whendidthatlasthappen。iwouldwageritwasprobablyabout200yearsago.andthatiswhatisgoingtohappeninthefuture.

38、 andthesecondimplicationisthattheworldwillinevitably，asaconsequence，becomeincreasinglyunfamiliartous，becauseitllbeshapedbyculturesandexperiencesandhistoriesthatwearenotreallyfamiliarwith，orconversantwith.andatlast，imafraid-takeeurope，americaisslightlydifferent-buteuropeansbyandlarge，ihavetosay，areig

39、norant，areunawareaboutthewaytheworldischanging.somepeople-ivegotanenglishfriendinchina，andhesaid，”thecontinentissleepwalkingintooblivion.”well，maybethatstrue，maybethatsanexaggeration.buttheresanotherproblemwhichgoesalongwiththis-thateuropeisincreasinglyoutoftouchwiththeworld-andthatisasortoflossofas

40、enseofthefuture.imean，europeonce，ofcourse，oncecommandedthefutureinitsconfidence.takethe19thcenturyforexample.butthis，alas，isnolongertrue. ifyouwanttofeelthefuture，ifyouwanttotastethefuture，trychina-theresoldconfucius.thisisarailwaystationthelikeofwhichyouveneverseenbefore.itdoesntevenlooklikearailwa

41、ystation.thisisthenewguangzhourailwaystationforthehigh-speedtrains.chinaalreadyhasabiggernetworkthananyothercountryintheworldandwillsoonhavemorethanalltherestoftheworldputtogether.ortakethis：nowthisisanidea，butitsanideatobytriedoutshortlyinasuburbofbeijing.hereyouhaveamegabus，ontheupperdeckcarriesabout2，000people.ittravelsonrailsdownasuburbanroad，andthecarstravelunderneathit.anditdoesspeedsofuptoabout100milesanhour.nowthisisthewaythingsaregoingtomove，becausechinahasaveryspecificproblem，whichisdifferentfromeuropeanddifferentfromtheunited