国际经济学课件：第21章 全球资本市场：运行和政策问题

1、Prepared by Iordanis PetsasTo Accompany , Sixth Editionby Paul R. Krugman and Maurice ObstfeldSlide 21-2Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.IntroductionThe International Capital Market and the Gains from TradeInternational Banking and the International Capital MarketRegulating International Bankin

2、gHow Well Has the International Capital Market Performed?SummaryChapter OrganizationSlide 21-3Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.IntroductionInternational capital marketThe group of closed interconnected markets in which residents of different countries trade assets such as currencies, stocks and

3、 bondsThis chapter focus on three main questions: How has the international capital market enhanced countries gains from trade? What caused the rapid growth in international financial activity that has occurred since the early 1960s? How can policymakers minimize problems raised by a worldwide capit

4、al market without sharply reducing the benefits it provides?Slide 21-4Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.Three Types of Gain From TradeAll transactions between the residents of different countries fall into one of three categories: Trades of goods or services for goods or services Trades of goods

5、 or services for assets Trades of assets for assetsThe International Capital Market and the Gains From TradeSlide 21-5Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.The International Capital Market and the Gains From TradeFigure 21-1: The Three Types of International TransactionGoods and ServicesAssetsGoods

6、and ServicesAssetsHomeForeignSlide 21-6Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.Risk AversionThe risk associated with a trade of assets is shared when assets are traded internationally. When people are risk averse, countries can gain through the exchange of risky assets. International capital markets m

7、ake these trades possible. The International Capital Market and the Gains From TradeSlide 21-7Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.Portfolio Diversification as a Motive for International Asset TradeInternational portfolio diversification can allow residents of all countries to reduce the variabilit

8、y of their wealth. International capital markets make this diversification possible.The International Capital Market and the Gains From TradeSlide 21-8Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.The Menu of International Assets: Debt Versus EquityInternational portfolio diversification can be carried out

9、through the exchange of: Debt instruments Bonds and bank deposits They specify that the issuer of the instrument must repay a fixed value regardless of economic circumstances. Equity instruments A share of stock It is a claim to a firms profits, rather than to a fixed payment, and its payoff will va

10、ry according to circumstance.The International Capital Market and the Gains From TradeSlide 21-9Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.International Banking and the International Capital MarketThe Structure of the International Capital MarketThe main actors in the international capital market are: Co

11、mmercial banks Corporations Nonbank financial institutions Central banks and other government agenciesSlide 21-10Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.Figure 21-2: Borrowing in the International Capital MarketInternational Banking and the International Capital MarketSlide 21-11Copyright 2003 Pearson

12、 Education, Inc.Growth of the International Capital MarketThe removal of barriers to private capital flows across countries borders has contributed to rapid growth in the international capital market.A policy “trilemma” refers to three available options: Fixed exchange rate Monetary policy oriented

13、toward domestic goals Freedom of international capital movementsInternational Banking and the International Capital MarketSlide 21-12Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.Offshore Banking and Offshore Currency TradingOffshore banking The business that banks foreign offices conduct outside of their h

14、ome countries Banks operate offshore though any of three types of institution: Agency office Subsidiary bank Foreign branchOffshore currency trading Trade in bank deposits denominated in currencies of countries other than the one in which the bank is located It is referred to as Eurocurrency trading

15、.International Banking and the International Capital MarketSlide 21-13Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.Eurodollars Dollar deposits located outside the U.S.Eurobanks Banks that accept deposits denominated in EurocurrenciesEurocurrency trading has grown for three reasons: Growth in world trade Ev

16、asion of financial regulations like reserve requirements Political concernsInternational Banking and the International Capital MarketSlide 21-14Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.The Growth of Eurocurrency TradingLondon is the leading center of Eurocurrency trading.The early growth in the Eurodol

17、lar market was due to: Growing volume of international trade Cold War New U.S. restrictions on capital outflows and U.S. banking regulations Federal Reserve regulations on U.S. banks (e.g., the Feds Regulation Q) Move to floating exchange rates in 1973 Reluctance of Arab OPEC members to place surplu

18、s funds in American banks after the first oil shockInternational Banking and the International Capital MarketSlide 21-15Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.International banking facilities (IBFs) Banks that accept time deposits and make loans to foreign customers. They are not subject to reserve r

19、equirements or interest rate ceilings. They are exempt from state and local taxes. International Banking and the International Capital MarketSlide 21-16Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.Regulating International BankingThe Problem of Bank FailureA bank fails when it is unable to meet its obligati

20、ons to its depositors.Governments attempt to prevent bank failures through extensive regulation of their domestic banking systems.Slide 21-17Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.The main U.S. safeguards to reduce the risk of bank failure: Deposit insurance Reserve requirements Capital requirements

21、and asset restrictions Bank examination Lender of last resort (LLR) facilities The Fed lends to banks facing massive deposit outflows to satisfy their depositors claims.Regulating International BankingSlide 21-18Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.Difficulties in Regulating International BankingDe

22、posit insurance is essentially absent in international banking.The absence of reserve requirements reduces the stability of the banking system.Bank examination to enforce capital requirements and asset restrictions becomes more difficult in an international setting.There is uncertainty over which ce

23、ntral bank is responsible for providing LLR assistance in international banking.Regulating International BankingSlide 21-19Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.International Regulatory CooperationOffshore banking is largely unprotected by the safeguards national governments have imposed to prevent

24、domestic bank failures.Basel Committee It is a group of central bank heads from 11 industrialized countries. It enhances regulatory cooperation in the international area. Its 1975 Concordat allocated national responsibility for monitoring banking institutions and provided for information exchange. R

25、egulating International BankingSlide 21-20Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.A major change in international financial relations in the 1990s has been the rapidly growing importance of new emerging markets as sources and destinations for private capital flows.The trend toward securitization has i

26、ncreased the need for international cooperation in monitoring and regulating nonbank financial institutions.Regulating International BankingSlide 21-21Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.How Well Has the International Capital Market Performed?The Extent of International Portfolio DiversificationTh

27、e international capital market has contributed to an increase in international portfolio diversification since 1970.The extent of diversification appears small compared with what economic theory would predict.Slide 21-22Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.How Well Has the International Capital Mar

28、ket Performed?The Extent of Intertemporal TradeSome observers claim that the extent of international trade, as measured by countries current account balances, has been too small. These claims are hard to evaluate.Slide 21-23Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.Figure 21-3: Saving and Investment Rat

29、es for 25 Countries, 1990-1997 AveragesHow Well Has the International Capital Market Performed?Slide 21-24Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.Onshore-Offshore Interest DifferentialsIf the world capital market is functioning well, international interest rates should move closely together and not di

30、ffer too greatly. Large interest rate differences would be strong evidence of unrealized gains from trade. Data shows that rates of return on similar deposits issued in the major financial centers are quite close.How Well Has the International Capital Market Performed?Slide 21-25Copyright 2003 Pears

31、on Education, Inc. Figure 21-4: Comparing Eurodollar and Onshore United States Interest RatesHow Well Has the International Capital Market Performed?Slide 21-26Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.The Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange MarketExchange rates provide important signals to those who eng

32、age in international trade and investment.Studies Based on Interest Parity The interest parity condition:Rt R*t = (Eet+1 Et)/Et (21-1)where: Rt is the date-t interest rate on home currency deposits R*t is the date-t interest rate on foreign currency deposits Eet+1 is the expected exchange rate Et is

33、 the exchange rate How Well Has the International Capital Market Performed?Slide 21-27Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc. The forecast error made in predicting future depreciation: ut+1 = (Et+1 Et)/Et - (Eet+1 Et)/Et (21-2) Under interest parity, this hypothesis can be tested by writing ut+1 as a

34、ctual currency depreciation less the international interest difference: ut+1 = (Et+1 Et)/Et - (Rt R*t) (21-3)How Well Has the International Capital Market Performed?Slide 21-28Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.The Role of Risk Premiums If bonds denominated in different currencies are imperfect s

35、ubstitutes for investors, the international interest rate difference equals expected currency depreciation plus a risk premium, t: Rt R*t = (Eet+1 Et)/Et + t (21-4)Tests for Excessive Volatility They yield a mixed verdict on the foreign exchange performance.The Bottom Line Evidence on foreign exchange market is ambiguous; more research and experience are needed.How Well Has the International Capital Market Performed?Slide 21-29Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.SummaryWhen peopl