A Robot in every home家家都有机器人

1、A Robot in Every Home 每一个家庭机器The leader of the PC revolution predicts that the next hot field will be robotics PC革命的领导人预计,下一个热门领域将机器人By Bill Gates 由比尔盖茨Imagine being present at the birth of a new industry. It is an industry based on groundbreaking new technologies, wherein a handful of well-establis

2、hed corporations sell highly specialized devices for business use and a fast-growing number of start-up companies produce innovative toys, gadgets for hobbyists and other interesting niche products. But it is also a highly fragmented industry with few common standards or platforms. Projects are comp

3、lex, progress is slow, and practical applications are relatively rare. In fact, for all the excitement and promise, no one can say with any certainty when-or even if-this industry will achieve critical mass. If it does, though, it may well change the world. 想象在一个新行业的诞生。基于突破性的新技术,它是一种行业中少数的公司出售商业使用和高

4、度专业化的设备数量快速增长的初创企业产生创新的玩具,电子产品爱好者和其他有趣的利基产品。但它也是一个高度分散的行业,一些常见的标准或平台。项目复杂,进展缓慢,实际应用比较少见。事实上,对于所有的激情和承诺,没有人能说任何确定性或者即使这个行业什么时候达到临界质量。如果是这样,不过,很可能改变世界。Of course, the paragraph above could be a description of the computer industry during the mid-1970s, around the time that Paul Allen and I launched Mic

5、rosoft. Back then, big, expensive mainframe computers ran the back-office operations for major companies, governmental departments and other institutions. Researchers at leading universities and industrial laboratories were creating the basic building blocks that would make the information age possi

6、ble. Intel had just introduced the 8080 microprocessor, and Atari was selling the popular electronic game Pong. At homegrown computer clubs, enthusiasts struggled to figure out exactly what this new technology was good for. 当然,上面的段落可以描述计算机行业在1970年代中期,当时,我和保罗艾伦创办微软。当时,大,昂贵的大型机电脑跑大公司的后台运作,政府部门和其他机构。一流

7、大学和工业实验室的研究人员创造的基本构建块,使信息时代成为可能。英特尔刚刚介绍了8080微处理器,雅达利是受欢迎的电子游戏Pong出售。国产电脑俱乐部,爱好者很难弄清楚到底是什么这种新技术很好。But what I really have in mind is something much more contemporary: the emergence of the robotics industry, which is developing in much the same way that the computer business did 30 years ago. Think of

8、the manufacturing robots currently used on automobile assembly lines as the equivalent of yesterdays mainframes. The industrys niche products include robotic arms that perform surgery, surveillance robots deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan that dispose of roadside bombs, and domestic robots that vacuu

9、m the floor. Electronics companies have made robotic toys that can imitate people or dogs or dinosaurs, and hobbyists are anxious to get their hands on the latest version of the Lego robotics system. 但我真的有什么想法是更为现代的东西:机器人行业的出现,这是开发一样,计算机业务30年前。认为目前使用的制造机器人汽车装配线上相当于昨天的大型机。该行业的利基产品包括机械臂执行手术,监视机器人部署在伊拉

10、克和阿富汗,处置路边炸弹,和国内机器人真空。电子公司已经使机器人玩具,可以模仿人或狗或恐龙,和业余爱好者急于拿到最新版本的乐高机器人系统。Meanwhile some of the worlds best minds are trying to solve the toughest problems of robotics, such as visual recognition, navigation and machine learning. And they are succeeding. At the 2004 Defense Advanced Research Projects Age

11、ncy (DARPA) Grand Challenge, a competition to produce the first robotic vehicle capable of navigating autonomously over a rugged 142-mile course through the Mojave Desert, the top competitor managed to travel just 7.4 miles before breaking down. In 2005, though, five vehicles covered the complete di

12、stance, and the races winner did it at an average speed of 19.1 miles an hour. (In another intriguing parallel between the robotics and computer industries, DARPA also funded the work that led to the creation of Arpanet, the precursor to the Internet.) 与此同时一些世界上最好的思想正试图解决机器人的棘手问题,比如视觉识别、导航和机器学习。他们成功

13、。在2004年的国防高级研究计划局(DARPA)大挑战,竞争产生第一个机器人车辆自主导航的能力在一个坚固的142英里的莫哈韦沙漠,前竞争对手设法打破之前旅行仅7.4英里。2005年,五辆覆盖完整的距离,和比赛的赢家是平均每小时19.1英里的速度。(在另一个有趣的机器人和计算机行业之间的平行,DARPA资助工作,导致Arpanet的创建,互联网的前身)。What is more, the challenges facing the robotics industry are similar to those we tackled in computing three decades ago. R

14、obotics companies have no standard operating software that could allow popular application programs to run in a variety of devices. The standardization of robotic processors and other hardware is limited, and very little of the programming code used in one machine can be applied to another. Whenever

15、 somebody wants to build a new robot, they usually have to start from square one. 更重要的是,机器人行业所面临的挑战是类似我们解决在计算30年前。机器人公司没有标准的操作软件,可以让受欢迎的应用程序运行在各种设备。机器人处理器和其他硬件的标准化是有限的,和很少的编程代码中使用一台机器可以应用到另一个地方。每当有人想建立一个新的机器人,他们通常从起点开始。Despite these difficulties, when I talk to people involved in robotics-from unive

16、rsity researchers to entrepreneurs, hobbyists and high school students-the level of excitement and expectation reminds me so much of that time when Paul Allen and I looked at the convergence of new technologies and dreamed of the day when a computer would be on every desk and in every home. And as I

17、 look at the trends that are now starting to converge, I can envision a future in which robotic devices will become a nearly ubiquitous part of our day-to-day lives. I believe that technologies such as distributed computing, voice and visual recognition, and wireless broadband connectivity will open

18、 the door to a new generation of autonomous devices that enable computers to perform tasks in the physical world on our behalf. We may be on the verge of a new era, when the PC will get up off the desktop and allow us to see, hear, touch and manipulate objects in places where we are not physically p

19、resent. 尽管有这些困难,当我跟人们参与机器人从大学的研究人员到企业家,爱好者和高中学生,兴奋和期待的水平让我想起,当保罗艾伦和我看着新技术的融合,梦想那一天电脑将在每个家庭的每张桌子上。我看现在开始趋同的趋势,我可以预见未来的机器人设备将成为一个几乎无所不在的我们日常生活的一部分。我相信技术,如分布式计算、声音和视觉识别,无线宽带连接将开门的新一代自动设备,使计算机执行任务代表我们在现实世界中。我们可能会在一个新时代的边缘,当电脑将从桌面,让我们看到的,听到的,接触和操作对象的地方我们不是身体。From Science Fiction to Reality 从科幻变成现实The wor

20、d robot was popularized in 1921 by Czech play瓀right Karel Capek, but people have envisioned creating robotlike devices for thousands of years. In Greek and Roman mythology, the gods of metalwork built mechanical servants made from gold. In the first century A.D. , Heron of Alexandria-the great engin

21、eer credited with inventing the first steam engine-designed intriguing automatons, including one said to have the ability to talk. Leonardo da Vincis 1495 sketch of a mechanical knight, which could sit up and move its arms and legs, is considered to be the first plan for a humanoid robot. “机器人”一词在19

22、21年推广由捷克打瓀卡雷尔恰,但人设想创建robotlike设备了数千年。在希腊和罗马神话中,金属制品的神建造机械仆人用黄金做的。在公元1世纪亚历山大的苍鹭,伟大的工程师发明蒸汽机的第一功臣,设计有趣的机器人,据说其中一个谈话的能力。列奥纳多达芬奇在1495年素描的机械骑士,可以坐起来,移动它的胳膊和腿,被认为是仿人机器人的第一个计划。Over the past century, anthropomorphic machines have become familiar figures in popular culture through books such as Isaac Asimovs

23、 I, Robot, movies such as Star Wars and television shows such as Star Trek. The popularity of robots in fiction indicates that people are receptive to the idea that these machines will one day walk among us as helpers and even as companions. Nevertheless, although robots play a vital role in industr

24、ies such as automobile manufacturing-where there is about one robot for every 10 workers-the fact is that we have a long way to go before real robots catch up with their science-fiction counterparts. 在过去的一个世纪,拟人化的机器已经熟悉的人物在流行文化通过书如艾萨克阿西莫夫的我,机器人,电影如星球大战和星际迷航等电视节目。机器人的普及在小说中表明,人们接受的观点,这些机器总有一天会走在我们中间助

25、手甚至同伴。然而,尽管机器人在汽车制造等行业中扮演着重要的角色,哪里有一个机器人每10个工人事实上,我们还有很长的路要走真正的机器人赶上科幻同行。One reason for this gap is that it has been much harder than expected to enable computers and robots to sense their surrounding environment and to react quickly and accurately. It has proved extremely difficult to give robots t

26、he capabilities that humans take for granted-for example, the abilities to orient themselves with respect to the objects in a room, to respond to sounds and interpret speech, and to grasp objects of varying sizes, textures and fragility. Even something as simple as telling the difference between an

27、open door and a window can be devilishly tricky for a robot. 这种差距的原因之一是,它已经比预计的要困难得多,使电脑和机器人感知周围环境,快速、准确地做出反应。事实证明很难给机器人,人类的能力是理所当然的例如,东方能力本身的对象在一个房间里,对声音和解释语言,和掌握对象的不同尺寸,材质和脆弱。即使简单的事情,例如告诉开放的门和窗户之间的区别是非常复杂的机器人。But researchers are starting to find the answers. One trend that has helped them is the i

28、ncreasing availability of tremendous amounts of computer power. One megahertz of processing power, which cost more than $7,000 in 1970, can now be purchased for just pennies. The price of a megabit of storage has seen a similar decline. The access to cheap computing power has permitted scientists to

29、 work on many of the hard problems that are fundamental to making robots practical. Today, for example, voice-recognition programs can identify words quite well, but a far greater challenge will be building machines that can understand what those words mean in context. As computing capacity continue

30、s to expand, robot designers will have the processing power they need to tackle issues of ever greater complexity. 但研究人员也开始找到答案。帮助他们的一个趋势是大量的计算机能力的提高可用性。处理能力的一个兆赫,于7000年花费超过7000美元,现在可以购买硬币。兆的存储的价格也见过类似的下降。获得廉价的计算能力已经允许科学家从事的许多难题,是制造机器人的实际基础。今天,例如,语音识别程序可以识别的话很好,但一个更大的挑战将建筑机器可以在上下文理解这句话的意思是什么。随着计算能力不

31、断扩大,机器人设计师将他们需要的处理能力解决更复杂的问题。Another barrier to the development of robots has been the high cost of hardware, such as sensors that enable a robot to determine the distance to an object as well as motors and servos that allow the robot to manipulate an object with both strength and delicacy. But pric

32、es are dropping fast. Laser range finders that are used in robotics to measure distance with precision cost about $10,000 a few years ago; today they can be purchased for about $2,000. And new, more accurate sensors based on ultrawideband radar are available for even less. 另一个障碍的发展机器人硬件的高成本,如传感器使机器人

33、能够确定一个物体的距离以及电机和伺服系统,使机器人操纵物体强度和美味。但价格下降快。机器人所使用的激光测距仪来测量距离精度与几年前耗资约10000美元,今天,他们可以购买约2000美元。和新的、更准确的传感器基于超宽频雷达可用于更少。Now robot builders can also add Global Positioning System chips, video cameras, array microphones (which are better than conventional microphones at distinguishing a voice from backgr

34、ound noise) and a host of additional sensors for a reasonable expense. The resulting enhancement of capabilities, combined with expanded processing power and storage, allows todays robots to do things such as vacuum a room or help to defuse a roadside bomb-tasks that would have been impossible for c

35、ommercially produced machines just a few years ago. 现在机器人建造者还可以添加全球定位系统芯片,摄像头,麦克风阵列(比传统区分语音和背景噪音麦克风)和大量的额外的传感器的合理费用。由此产生的增强功能,加上扩展处理能力和存储,使得今天的机器人做事如真空房间或有助于缓解一枚路边炸弹,是不可能的任务仅仅几年前商业化生产的机器。A BASIC Approach 一个基本的方法In february 2004 I visited a number of leading universities, including Carnegie Mellon Un

36、iversity, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard University, Cornell University and the University of Illinois, to talk about the powerful role that computers can play in solving some of societys most pressing problems. My goal was to help students understand how exciting and important c

37、omputer science can be, and I hoped to encourage a few of them to think about careers in technology. At each university, after delivering my speech, I had the opportunity to get a firsthand look at some of the most interesting research projects in the schools computer science department. Almost with

38、out exception, I was shown at least one project that involved robotics. 2004年2月我参观了许多著名大学,包括卡内基梅隆大学、麻省理工学院、哈佛大学、康奈尔大学和伊利诺斯州大学的谈论,电脑可以发挥强大的作用在解决一些社会最紧迫的问题。我的目标是帮助学生了解如何,令人兴奋的和重要的计算机科学,我希望鼓励其中的几个思考职业技术。在每个大学,发表我的演讲后,我有机会获得第一手看看一些最有趣的研究项目在学校的计算机科学系。几乎无一例外的是,至少我展示了一个项目,涉及到机器人技术。At that time, my colleagu

39、es at Microsoft were also hearing from people in academia and at commercial robotics firms who wondered if our company was doing any work in robotics that might help them with their own development efforts. We were not, so we decided to take a closer look. I asked Tandy Trower, a member of my strate

40、gic staff and a 25-year Microsoft veteran, to go on an extended fact-finding mission and to speak with people across the robotics community. What he found was universal enthusiasm for the potential of robotics, along with an industry-wide desire for tools that would make development easier. Many see

41、 the robotics industry at a technological turning point where a move to PC architecture makes more and more sense, Tandy wrote in his report to me after his fact-finding mission. As Red Whittaker, leader of Carnegie Mellons entry in the DARPA Grand Challenge, recently indicated, the hardware capabil

42、ity is mostly there; now the issue is getting the software right. 那时,我的同事们在微软也听到人们在学术界和商业机器人公司想知道我们公司是做任何工作的机器人可以帮助他们与自己的开发工作。我们没有,所以我们决定仔细看看。我问Tandy据透露,我的战略工作人员和25年微软资深,继续延长事实调查团和说话人机器人社区。他发现普遍对机器人技术的潜力,以及全行业渴望工具,这将使开发变得更容易。“许多人认为机器人产业在一个技术的转折点将PC架构越来越多的意义,“Tandy写在他的后向我报告事实调查团。“红惠塔克,卡内基梅隆的领袖进入DARPA

43、大挑战,最近表示,硬件能力主要是在那里;现在问题是正确的软件。”Back in the early days of the personal computer, we realized that we needed an ingredient that would allow all of the pioneering work to achieve critical mass, to coalesce into a real industry capable of producing truly useful products on a commercial scale. What was

44、needed, it turned out, was Microsoft BASIC. When we created this programming language in the 1970s, we provided the common foundation that enabled programs developed for one set of hardware to run on another. BASIC also made computer programming much easier, which brought more and more people into t

45、he industry. Although a great many individuals made essential contributions to the development of the personal computer, Microsoft BASIC was one of the key catalysts for the software and hardware innovations that made the PC revolution possible. 在早期的个人电脑,我们意识到我们需要一个成分,使所有的开创性工作达到临界质量,合并成一个真正的行业能够在商业

46、规模生产真正有用的产品。需要什么结果,微软基本。当我们创建了这个编程语言在1970年代,我们提供了共同的基础,使项目开发一套硬件上运行。基本的计算机编程容易得多,这使得越来越多的人进入这个行业。虽然很多人做出了重要的贡献个人电脑的发展,微软基本是软件和硬件的关键催化剂创新,使个人电脑革命成为可能。After reading Tandys report, it seemed clear to me that before the robotics industry could make the same kind of quantum leap that the PC industry made

47、 30 years ago, it, too, needed to find that missing ingredient. So I asked him to assemble a small team that would work with people in the robotics field to create a set of programming tools that would provide the essential plumbing so that anybody interested in robots with even the most basic under

48、standing of computer programming could easily write robotic applications that would work with different kinds of hardware. The goal was to see if it was possible to provide the same kind of common, low-level foundation for integrating hardware and software into robot designs that Microsoft BASIC pro

49、vided for computer programmers. 阅读Tandy的报告后,清楚我看来,在机器人可以使同样的量子飞跃,个人电脑行业30年前,它,也需要找到失踪的成分。所以我问他组装一个小团队,愿与人在机器人领域创建一组编程工具,将提供必要的管道,任何人对机器人感兴趣,连最基本的了解计算机编程很容易编写机器人可与不同类型的硬件上运行的应用程序。目标是否可以提供同样的常见,低级基础将硬件和软件集成到机器人设计,微软提供的基本计算机程序员。Tandys robotics group has been able to draw on a number of advanced technol

50、ogies developed by a team working under the direction of Craig Mundie, Microsofts chief research and strategy officer. One such technology will help solve one of the most difficult problems facing robot designers: how to simultaneously handle all the data coming in from multiple sensors and send the

51、 appropriate commands to the robots motors, a challenge known as concurrency. A conventional approach is to write a traditional, single-threaded program-a long loop that first reads all the data from the sensors, then processes this input and finally delivers output that determines the robots behavi

52、or, before starting the loop all over again. The shortcomings are obvious: if your robot has fresh sensor data indicating that the machine is at the edge of a precipice, but the program is still at the bottom of the loop calculating trajectory and telling the wheels to turn faster based on previous

53、sensor input, there is a good chance the robot will fall down the stairs before it can process the new information. Tandy机器人小组已经能够利用大量的先进技术开发的一个团队工作的指导下克瑞格蒙迪,微软首席研究和战略官。一个这样的技术将帮助解决机器人设计师面临的最困难的问题之一:如何同时处理所有来自多个传感器的数据和发送适当的命令机器人的汽车,称为并发性的挑战。传统的方法是编写传统的单线程程序一个长循环第一个从传感器中读取所有数据,然后处理这个输入和最终交付输出决定机器人的行为

54、,开始前循环一遍。的缺点是显而易见的:如果你的机器人有新的传感器数据表明机器在悬崖的边缘,但该计划仍是底部的循环计算轨迹和告诉车轮将根据以往的传感器输入速度,很有可能这个机器人将会下楼梯才能处理新信息。Concurrency is a challenge that extends beyond robotics. Today as more and more applications are written for distributed networks of computers, programmers have struggled to figure out how to efficie

55、ntly orchestrate code running on many different servers at the same time. And as computers with a single processor are replaced by machines with multiple processors and multicore processors-integrated circuits with two or more processors joined together for enhanced performance-software designers wi

56、ll need a new way to program desktop applications and operating systems. To fully exploit the power of processors working in parallel, the new software must deal with the problem of concurrency. 并发性是一个挑战,超越机器人技术。今天越来越多的分布式计算机网络应用程序编写,程序员都在努力找出如何有效地安排代码上运行许多不同的服务器在同一时间。并与单处理器计算机有多个处理器和机器所取代,“多核”处理器集成

57、电路使用连接在一起的两个或两个以上的处理器增强性能,软件设计师需要一个程序桌面应用程序和操作系统的新方法。充分利用处理器并行工作的力量,新的软件必须处理并发的问题。One approach to handling concurrency is to write multi-threaded programs that allow data to travel along many paths. But as any developer who has written multithreaded code can tell you, this is one of the hardest task

58、s in programming. The answer that Craigs team has devised to the concurrency problem is something called the concurrency and coordination runtime (CCR). The CCR is a library of functions-sequences of software code that perform specific tasks-that makes it easy to write multithreaded applications tha

59、t can coordinate a number of simultaneous activities. Designed to help programmers take advantage of the power of multicore and multiprocessor systems, the CCR turns out to be ideal for robotics as well. By drawing on this library to write their programs, robot designers can dramatically reduce the chances that one of their creations will run into a wall because its software is too busy sen