宏观经济学英文版第十二章

1、 CHAPTER 12CHAPTER12 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier BlanchardTechnological Technological Progress Progress and Growthand GrowthPrepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoChapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroe

2、conomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard2 of 32Technological Progressand the Rate of GrowthThe role of technological progress in growth has many dimensions. It may mean:Larger quantities of output for given quantities of capital and labor as a new type of lubricant to a machine. Better productsNew productsA

3、larger variety of productsAll these dimensions means value improvement . So we can think technological progress leads to increases in output for given amounts of capital and labor.12-1Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Bla

4、nchard3 of 32Technological Progressand the Production FunctionLets denote the state of technology (as a variable that tells us how much output can be produced from given amounts of capitla and labor at any time ) by A and rewrite the production function as:YF K N A(,)(+ + +)A more restrictive but mo

5、re convenient form isYF K AN(,)Output depends on both capital and labor (K and N), and on the state of technology (A).Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard4 of 32Technological Progressand the Production Function Tec

6、hnological progress reduces the number of workers needed to achieve a given amount of output. Technological progress increases AN, which we can think of as the amount of effective labor, or labor in “efficiency units.” in the economy.With constant returns to scale,222YFKAN(,)More generally,xYF xK xA

7、N(,)Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard5 of 32Technological Progressand the Production FunctionThe relation between output per effective worker and capital per effective worker is:YANfKANIn words: Output per effec

8、tive worker is a function of capital per effective worker.YANFKAN,1Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard6 of 32Technological Progressand the Production FunctionOutput per Effective Worker Versus Capital per Effectiv

9、e WorkerBecause of decreasing returns to capital, increases in capital per effective worker lead to smaller and smaller increases in output per effective worker.Figure 12 - 1Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard7 of

10、 32Interactions BetweenOutput and CapitalThe dynamics of output and capital per effective worker as that of per worker also involve: The relation between output per effective worker and capital per effective worker. The relation between investment per effective worker and capital per effective worke

11、r. The relation between depreciation per effective workerequivalently, the investment per effective worker needed to maintain a constant level of capital per effective workerand capital per effective worker.Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeco

12、nomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard8 of 32Interactions BetweenOutput and CapitalYANfKANISsYIANsYAN Under the same assumptions as in chapter 1that investment is equal to private saving ,and the private saving rate is constant:IANsfKANGiven that Then Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prenti

13、ce Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard9 of 32Interactions BetweenOutput and CapitalWith the increase of AN, the investment needed to maintain a given level of capital per effective worker is :()ggKAN()ggKANAN()ANKggKChapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prenti

14、ce Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard10 of 32Interactions BetweenOutput and CapitalDynamics of Capital per Worker and Output per Effective WorkerCapital per effective worker and output per effective worker converge to constant values in the long run.Figure 12 - 2Chapter 1

15、2: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard11 of 32Dynamics of Capital and OutputThis figure focuses on output, capital, and investment per effective worker, rather than per worker: Output per effective worker increases with capit

16、al per effective worker, but at a decreasing rate.Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard12 of 32Dynamics of Capital and OutputThis figure focuses on output, capital, and investment per effective worker, rather than p

17、er worker: The relation between investment per effective worker and capital per effective worker is drawn as the upper curve, multiplied by the saving rate, s.Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard13 of 32Dynamics of

18、 Capital and OutputThis figure focuses on output, capital, and investment per effective worker, rather than per worker: Finally, now that we allow for technological progress (so A increases over time), the number of effective workers (AN) increases over time. Chapter 12: Technological Progress and G

19、rowth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard14 of 32Dynamics of Capital and OutputWe can now give a graphical description of the dynamics of capital per effective worker and output per effective worker: Because actual investment exceeds the investment level requ

20、ired to maintain the existing level of capital per effective worker, K/AN increases. Starting from (K/AN)0, the economy moves to the right, with the level of capital per effective worker increasing over time. In the long run, capital per effective worker reaches a constant level, and so does output

21、per effective worker. This implies that output (Y) is growing at the same rate as effective labor (AN).Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard15 of 32Dynamics of Capital and OutputIn steady state, output (Y) grows at

22、the same rate as effective labor (AN); effective labor grows at a rate (gA+gN); therefore, output growth in steady state equals (gA+gN). Capital per effective worker also grows at a rate equal to (gA+gN).The growth rate of output is independent of the saving rate.Because output, capital, and effecti

23、ve labor all grow at the same rate, (gA+gN), the steady state of the economy is also called a state of balanced growth.Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard16 of 32Dynamics of Capital and OutputTable 12-1 The Charac

24、teristics of Balanced GrowthRate of growth of:1Capital per effective worker02Output per effective worker03Capital per workergA4Output per workergA5LaborgN6CapitalgA + gN7OutputgA + gNChapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blan

25、chard17 of 32Dynamics of Capital and OutputOn the balanced growth path (equivalently, in steady state; equivalently, in the long run): Capital per effective worker and output per effective worker are constant. Equivalently, capital per worker and output per worker are growing at the rate of technolo

26、gical progress, gA. Or, in terms of labor(N), capital(K), and output(Y): Labor is growing at the rate of population growth, gN; capital and output are growing at a rate equal to the sum of population growth and the rate of technological progress, (gA + gN).Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Grow

27、th 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard18 of 32The Effects of the Saving RateThe Effects of an Increase in the Saving Rate: IAn increase in the saving rate leads to an increase in the steady-state levels of output per effective worker and capital per effective

28、 worker.Figure 12 - 3Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard19 of 32The Effects of the Saving RateThe Effects of an Increase in the Saving Rate: IIThe increase in the saving rate leads to higher output growth until th

29、e economy reaches its new, higher, balanced growth path.Figure 12 - 4Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard20 of 32The Determinants of Technological ProgressTechnological progress in modern economies is the result of

30、 firms research and development (R&D) activities. The outcome of R&D is fundamentally ideas.Spending on R&D depends on:The fertility of the research process, or how spending on R&D translates into new ideas and new products, andThe appropriability of research results, or the extent to which firms be

31、nefit from the results of their own R&D.12-2Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard21 of 32The Fertility of the Research ProcessThe determinants of fertility include: The interaction between basic research (the search

32、 for general principles and results) and applied research (the application of results to specific uses). The country: some countries are more successful at basic research; others are more successful at applied research and development. Time: It takes many years, and often many decades, for the full

33、potential of major discoveries to be realized.Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard22 of 32The Appropriabilityof Research ResultsIf firms cannot appropriate the profits from the development of new products, they wil

34、l not engage in R&D. Factors at work include: The nature of the research process. Is there a payoff in being first at developing a new product? Legal protection. Patents give a firm that has discovered a new product the right to exclude anyone else from the production or use of the new product for a

35、 period of time.Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard23 of 32The Diffusion of New The Diffusion of New Technology: Hybrid CornTechnology: Hybrid CornFigure 1 Percentage of Total Corn Acreage Planted with Hybrid Seed

36、, Selected U.S. States, 1932-1956Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard24 of 32The Facts ofGrowth RevisitedRecall from Chapter 10 that we looked at growth in rich countries since 1950, and we identified three main fa

37、cts: Sustained growth, especially from 1950 to the mid-1970s A slowdown in growth starting in the mid-1970s Convergence: Countries that were further behind have been growing fasterKeep this in mind as we look ahead.12-3Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publish

38、ing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard25 of 32Capital Accumulation Versus Technological ProgressFast growth may come from two sources: A higher rate of technological progress. If gA is higher, balanced output growth (gY=gA+gN) will also be higher. In this case, the rate of output growth equals th

39、e rate of technological progress. Adjustment of capital per effective worker, K/AN, to a higher level. In this case, the growth rate of output exceeds the rate of technological progress.Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier B

40、lanchard26 of 32Capital Accumulation Versus Technological ProgressTable 12-2 Average Annual Rates of Growth of Output per Capita and of Technological Progress in Five Rich Countries, 1950-2000Rate of Growth of Output per Worker (%)Rate of Technological Progress (%)1950-1973(1)1973-2000(2)Change(3)19

41、50-1973(4)1973-2000(5)Change(6)France4.82.1-2.75.31.6-3.7Japan7.12.1-5.07.01.4-5.6United Kingdom3.41.7-1.73.71.9-1.8United States2.71.2-1.52.91.4-1.5Average4.51.8-2.74.71.6-3.1Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard27

42、 of 32Capital Accumulation Versus Technological ProgressTable 12-2 illustrates three main facts:1. The period of high growth of output per capita, from 1950 to 1973, was due to rapid technological progress, not to unusually high capital accumulation.2. The slowdown in growth of output per capita sin

43、ce 1973 has come from a decrease in the rate of technological growth, not from unusually low capital accumulation.3. Convergence of output per capita across countries has come from higher technological progress rather than from faster capital accumulation.Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growt

44、h 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard28 of 32Fluctuation in the Pace of Technological ProgressWhy did technological progress slow down in the mid-1970s? The truth is that, despite a large amount of research, this slowdown remains largely a mystery. One hypoth

45、esis is that there was a general decline in R&D, which led to lower technological progress.Another hypothesis is that the decline was not in the amount but in the fertility of R&D. Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanch

46、ard29 of 32Institutions and Growth12-4Figure 12 - 5Protection from Expropriation and GDP per CapitaThere is a strong positive relation between the degree of protection from expropriation and the level of GDP per capita.Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publish

47、ing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard30 of 32The New Economy and The New Economy and Productivity GrowthProductivity GrowthFigure 1Moores Law, Number of Transistors per Chip, 1970-2000Moores Law predicts that the number of transistors in a chip would double every 18-24 months.Chapter 12: Technol

48、ogical Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard31 of 32The Importance of The Importance of Institutions: North and South Institutions: North and South KoreaKoreaPPP GDP per Capita, North and South Korea, 1950-1998Figure 1 Chapter 12: Technologi

49、cal Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard32 of 32Romers new stylized facts about economic growth Romers new list of six stylized facts , proposed by Paul M. Romer in his article of 2010:1) Accelerating growth .For thousands of years ,growth

50、in both population and per capita GDP has accelerated ,rising from virtually zero to the relatively rapid rates observed in the last century . 2) Variation in modern growth rates .The variation in the rate of growth of per capita GDP increases with the distance from the technology frontier .3) Incre

51、ases in the extent of the market .Increase flows of goods ,ideas, finance , and people via globalization ,as well as urbanization have increased the extent of the market for all workers and consumers.Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics,

52、 4/e Olivier Blanchard33 of 32Romers new stylized facts about economic growth4)Large income and total factor productivity (TFP) differences . Differences in measured inputs explain less than half of the enormous cross-country differences in per capita GDP. 5)Increases in human capital per worker. Hu

53、man capital per worker is rising dramatically throughout the world .6)Long run stability of relative wages. The rising quantity of human capital relative to unskilled labor, has not been matched by sustained decline in its relative price.Chapter 12: Technological Progress and Growth 2006 Prentice Hall Busine