巴基斯坦石油供应安全问题

1、PAKISTAN OIL SUPPLY SECURITYPAKISTAN ENERGY CONFERENCEA Fragile Supply ChainNEW YORK: Oil surged to almost $120 a barrel and the safe-haven Swiss franc hit a record high on Thursday on fears turmoil in Libya could spread, but gold eased on talk that Saudi Arabia could boost its crude output.DAMASCUS

2、, Feb 24: A witness said two Iranian warships docked in Syria on Thursday, completing a voyage that has raised tensions with Israel during a time of upheaval in the Middle East.A Fragile Supply Chain .In 1984, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz after repeated attacks by Iraq disrupted Ira

3、nian shipping. In 1997, Iran once again threatened to close the strait if the US attempted to interfere with Iranian disputes with other Persian Gulf countries. AND NOW THE CURRENT CRISIS IN THE MIDDLE EAST!What does the IMF have to say RIGHT NOW!April 07Oil prices are likely to remain high for thef

4、oreseeable future.Global oil markets have entered a period of increased scarcity. A return to abundance is unlikely in the near term.Why is Oil Security Important?Oil provides 32% of Pakistans primary energy requirementShare of Oil in Power Generation is 38%Majority of oil supply comes from geo-poli

5、tically sensitive Middle EastRelative flexibility of oil supply chain (supply, storage and transport) also makes it a preferred “soldier” in the armour of energy securityWhat does Oil Supply Security Mean?Oil Supply Security means security ofSource (where it comes from)Control of the flowDistributio

6、n of oilAlternatives in place to withstand highs & lowsSecuring above, means identifying and tackling many challenges- both short and long term It does not mean energy independence!Pakistans Oil DemandOil Consumption418,000 BPCD(20.3 Million Tons/ Annum)Crude Oil Imports 138,000 BPCD (6.6 Million To

7、ns/ Annum)Products Imports242,000 BPCD (12.4 Million Tons / Annum)Pakistans Oil Demand LPG, 3%Jet Fuels, 7%Kerosene, 1%Gasolines, 9%Diesel, 36%Fuel Oil, 44%(Source: Pakistan Oil Report 2009-10)Challenges for Pakistan Oil Supply SecuritySupply ContractsShipping Lanes - Strait of HormuzShipping Capaci

8、ty/ShippersPortsRefiningStrategic StocksFinancing/Circular Debt/PricesPrudent Demand PlanningEnergy Conservation and EfficiencyPoliciesSecuritySupply ContractsPakistan gets almost its entire Crude Oil and Products imports from the Middle East. Main suppliers include Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iran.Pakist

9、an does not have any Crude Oil off-take rights.One approach is for Pakistani companies to join overseas E&P ventures. Possible constraints? Capacity building, capital requirements.Crude supply contracts heavily skewed towards countries potentially affected by the Strait of HormuzPossible avenues to

10、explore include Oman.Supply ContractsFuel Oil availability in the Middle East is becoming lower as the refineries upgrade to produce more value added productsOur own refineries are also pursuing upgradesThe Govt. should discourage Fuel Oil fired power plants to avoid supply demand imbalance in futur

11、e.Strait of HormuzStrait of Hormuz16.5-18 Million barrels of oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz every day. This is nearly 40% of the worlds seaborne oil shipmentsThe Strait is susceptible to geo-political events, and calamities.Even a temporary blockade of this choke point can disrupt the entir

12、e worlds oil supply and that of PakistanRas Tanura is another area of concernPakistan must pursue alternate routesStrait of Hormuz Alternate RoutesEast-West Pipeline (Petroline)745 Miles long running through KSA from Abqaiq to the Red SeaTransport Capacity : 4.8 Million BPDSupply from this line woul

13、d result in significantly higher transportation costsStrait of Hormuz Alternate RoutesHabshan-Fujairah Pipeline (under construction)Completion expected this year (2011)Terminates at Fujairah (Gulf of Oman) bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. 400 km.Capacity : 1.5 - 1.8 Million BPDWhen completed, it will

14、 be the most viable alternateCan only partially offset the supply risks of the StraitOther alternates could include the deactivated 1.65-million BPD Iraqi Pipeline across Saudi Arabia.Strait of Hormuz Alternate RoutesContingent utilization of alternate routes would require significant amendments in

15、supply contractsMost importantly, inter-government engagement is needed due to Pakistans low weight in the worlds energy politics Longer routes also require a higher shipping capacity due to longer turn around timeShipping CapacityCrude oil is imported through PNSC tankers.Average crude oil shipment

16、s per month is 550,000 MT.PNSC has 3-4 tankers dedicated for crude oil shipment; enough to transport 550,000 600,000 Tons of Crude oil per month.However we need contingency shipping capacity:In case one of the tankers is grounded Because shipments from alternate routes have longer turnaround timeMed

17、ium term outlook should have alternate shippers to alleviate riskPortsAt present, crude oil and products can only be received at two ports Keamari and FOTCO (Port Qasim)FOTCO can only handle vessels up to 50 -55,000 Tons due to draft constraintsBoth ports are in Karachi and there is limited connecti

18、vity. PARCOs crude oil pipeline (from Keamari to Korangi) can only accommodate two Diesel cargoes in a monthAn environmental disaster (like Tasman Spirit) or a blockade (during war times) can severely impact port receiving capability. Port RecommendationsDraft at FOTCO should be increased and night

19、time navigation should be started A specific White Oil pipeline linkage should be developed between Keamari and Port QasimA national oil logistics and infrastructure study should be conducted to pinpoint bottlenecks and to identify long term infrastructure requirementsRefiningIn 2009-10, the refiner

20、ies operated at 71% of their designed capacity supplying less than 50% of the countrys products requirement - cash crunch due to circular debt issue and refining formula.Refinery sustainability is challenged by:Low profitability due to simple configuration and therefore reliance on tariff protection

21、Most refineries not in a position to comply with stringent product specifications being imposed in upcoming yearsMogas pricing structureGovt. should announce a clear plan for phasing out tariff protection Refineries need to modernize! A large deep-conversion refinery (250,000 BPD) should be built th

22、rough public private partnership in the next 5 years.Strategic Oil Stocks Strategic Stocks are critical to prepare the country for:Port closures or blockades during wartimesDamage to oil transport infrastructureRefinery shut downsDisruption in supply of other energy sources However, strategic stocks

23、 can also prove to be a very expensive insurance Strategic Stocks Whats happening in the world:US Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) generally cover 30-40 days of total crude oil suppliesChina is building capacity to develop 90 days reservesIndia aims to develop 2 weeks of reserves by 2012In most co

24、untries, the majority of strategic reserves are owned and controlled by governments to avoid a commercial “conflict of interest”.Strategic Stocks - RecommendationsThe Government should aim to build at least 30 days cover by 2015%age of Petroleum Levy could be used for financing the initiative Strate

25、gic Stocks should be exclusive of commercial stocks owned by oil companies and should be controlled by the GoP.At least 60% reserves should be developed in up- country to hedge against loss of transport infrastructure.Circular DebtWhy is circular debt a challenge to oil security?Low refinery utilizationConstrained OMC capability to importDelayed E&P ProjectsLess motivation to market productAs a first step GOP should red