商务英语课件ch03d

1、41chapter 3 assessing economic conditions管理学院市场学系吴德亮copyright 2004 south-western. all rights reserved. 42copyright 2004 south-western. all rights reserved. 43identify macroeconomic factors that affect business performance.explain how market prices are determined.explain how the government influences

2、 economic conditions.44copyright 2004 south-western. all rights reserved. 45reflect the level of production and consumption for a particular country, area, or industry macroeconomic conditionsoverall economic state of a country microeconomic conditionsfocus on conditions in a particular business or

3、industrycopyright 2004 south-western. all rights reserved. 46economic conditions can affect: revenues of a business expenses of a business total value of a businesscopyright 2004 south-western. all rights reserved. 47some firms are more sensitive to changes in economic conditions than others: demand

4、 for fast food demand is not very sensitive to declining economic conditions. demand for new automobiles is more sensitive to weak economic conditions than food products.48demand for motorcycles is stronger when: the economy is strong. customers have more income to buy motorcycles.high demand for ha

5、rley davidsons motorcycles: generates greater revenue. improves company performance.49demand for motorcycles is weaker when: the economy is weak. customers have less income to buy motorcycles.lower demand for harley davidsons motorcycles: generates less revenue. weakens company performance.410harley

6、 davidson tries to predict demand so it will have a sufficient supply of motorcycles to meet future demand. demand for motorcycles depends on economic conditions. number of motorcycles produced also depends on economic conditions.government policies also affect economic conditions.411harley davidson

7、 must determine: how prevailing economic conditions will affect the demand for the motorcycles it produces. how prevailing government policies will affect the demand for its motorcycles.412the performance of most firms depends on three macroeconomic factors: economic growthchanges in the general lev

8、el of economic activity inflationincreases in general level of prices over specific period of time interest rateschanges in the cost of borrowed money413when the change in the general level of economic activity is higher than normal: total income level of all u.s. workers is relatively high. there i

9、s a higher volume of spending on products and services. firms that sell products and services should generate higher revenues.414occurs when economic growth is negative for two consecutive quarterslowers demand for products and services reduces the revenue of firms that sell products and services. c

10、an cause firms to shut down factories in response to low economic growth.general motorsford415gross domestic product (gdp) the level of total production of products and services in the economy total market value of all final products and services produced in the u.s.aggregate expenditures total amou

11、nt of expenditures416in the u.s., these indicators are closely related: high level of consumer spending reflects a large demand for products and services. total production level depends on total demand for products and services.417unemployment levelindustrial production levelnew housing startsperson

12、al income level418frictional unemployment people who are between jobs.seasonal unemployment people whose services are not needed during some seasons.cyclical unemployment people unemployed due to poor economic conditions. best indicator of economic conditions.structural unemployment people who do no

13、t have adequate skills.copyright 2004 south-western. all rights reserved. 419an increase in the general level of prices of products and services over a specified period of time. estimated by measuring percentage changes in the consumer price index (cpi). cpi is a market basket of prices on a wide va

14、riety of consumer products:grocery products, housing, gasoline, medical services, electricity, etc.copyright 2004 south-western. all rights reserved. 420can affect a companys operating expenses can increase cost of supplies and materials. can impact indexed wages (labor cost). higher inflation can c

15、ause large increases in operating expenses.can affect a companys revenues companies may charge higher prices to compensate for their higher expenses.copyright 2004 south-western. all rights reserved. 421occurs when firms must charge higher prices because their production (input) costs are higher. ch

16、ange in price of oil impacts gasoline prices and transportation costs. change in aluminum prices impacts packaging cost of beer production. change in pulp prices impacts the cost of paper towel production.copyright 2004 south-western. all rights reserved. 422occurs when product and services prices a

17、re pulled up by consumer demand. strong consumer demand can cause shortages in the production of products.firms that anticipate shortages may increase prices for their products. strong consumer demand may put pressure on wages and reduce unemployment.firms may increase prices to recover higher opera

18、ting expenses.copyright 2004 south-western. all rights reserved. 423represent the cost of borrowing money firms interest expense is based on market interest rates and can have significant impact on a firms profitability.firms may postpone expansion and other projects when interest rates are too high

19、. interest rates also impact a firms revenuethe increased cost of financing new homes reduces demand for new homes.revenues for construction firms and equipment manufacturers also decline.424e e- -businessbusinesscopyright 2004 south-western. all rights reserved. 425market price of a product is infl

20、uenced by: the total demand for that product by all customers supply of that product produced by firmsthe interaction between demand and supply determines the market price.426demand schedule 需求曲线 indicates the quantity of the product that would be demanded by customers at each possible price. quanti

21、ty demanded is higher when the price is lower._ quantity demanded（qd: 有效需求） 427exhibit 4.6a428exhibit 4.6bcopyright 2004 south-western. all rights reserved. 429supply schedule 供给曲线 indicates the quantity of the product that would be supplied (produced) by manufacturers at each possible price. quanti

22、ty supplied (produced) is higher when the price is higher. quantity supplied （qs: 有效供给）430interaction of demand and supply schedules determines the market price surplus（过剩）（过剩）: the quantity supplied by firms is more than the quantity demanded by customers. shortage（短缺）（短缺）: the quantity supplied by

23、 firms is less than the quantity demanded by customers. equilibrium price（均衡价格）（均衡价格）: occurs when quantities supplied and demanded are equal.431changing conditions can cause a demand schedule or supply schedule for a specific product to change. changes the equilibrium price of a product.increased p

24、roduct popularity (demand) results in a shortage of the product.the shortage is corrected when the price is increased to the level at which the quantity supplied equals the quantity demanded.432exhibit 4.7433exhibit 4.7434change in supply can impact the equilibrium price of the product. technologica

25、l improvements can lead to reduced production costs causing firms to produce a larger supply at any given price.the supply schedule changes and yields a surplus which can be sold only by lowering the price.the surplus is eliminated when the price decreases to a level at which the quantity supplied e

26、quals the quantity demanded.435exhibit 4.8436exhibit 4.8437consumer income determines the amount of products and services individuals can purchasehigh levels of economic growth result in more income for consumers.increased demand causes demand schedule shifts and price increases. when consumer incom

27、e declines:demand decreases and creates a surplus as the demand schedule shifts and prices decrease.438changes in consumer tastes and preferences: impact the quantity of products and services demanded by consumersincreased demand leads to price increase.decreased demand leads to price decrease.439ch

28、ange in production expenses a decrease in expenses can lead to increase in quantity supplied and create a surplus.firms must lower prices in order to eliminate the surplus. an increase in expenses can lead to decrease in quantity supplied and create a shortage.firms can increase prices until shortag

29、e is corrected.440，monetary policy made by the federal reserve system“fed” is the central bank of the u.s. decisions by fed about the money supply:impact interest rates.impact firms interest expenses.impact demand for products purchased with borrowed funds.441maintains funds outside the banking syst

30、em that are not loanable to firms or individualsused to buy treasury securities held by individuals and companiesprovide individuals and firms with new funds for deposit in commercial banksdeposits increase the money supply and the supply of loanable funds.should result in decreased interest rates a

31、nd stimulate economic growth.442fed can pull funds out of commercial banks and other financial institutions to reduce the money supply. reduces the supply of funds available to lend to borrowers (shortage) causing:interest rates to increase.individuals and companies to borrow less.spending levels to

32、 decrease.the level of inflation to decline.443how the federal government sets tax rates and spends money: personal income tax ratesreduced tax rates produce higher after-tax incomes that stimulate spending and increase demand for products and services. corporate taxesimpacts after-tax earnings exci

33、se taxestaxes on particular products that increase prices consumers pay for these products.444sets the amounts of federal tax revenue government and federal spending federal budget deficitoccurs when federal spending exceeds federal taxes and other revenue collected by the federal government.governm

34、ent borrowing to make up the difference creates higher demand for loanable funds and can drive up interest rates.445exhibit 4.9446exhibit 4.10447a restrictive monetary or fiscal policy can be used to: maintain low rate of economic growthprevent inflationary pressure caused by excessive demandcan als

35、o create unemployment also requires a trade-off448firm performance depends on three macroeconomic factors: economic growth, inflation, and interest rates.demand and supply conditions determine market prices.federal government uses monetary and fiscal policies to influence macroeconomic conditions.4491，macroeconomic environmentdemograph