俄罗斯经济危机

1、A Simple Analysis about the Reason and Influence of the 2014 Russian Financial CrisisAbstractThe 2014 Russian financial crisis is the result of a rapid decline in the Russian ruble relative to other currencies during the second half of 2014 and a slowdown in the Russian economy.Some one had said tha

2、t economic foundation will determine a countrys level of development,so there is no doubt that the depreciation of ruble will affect the development of Russia.The depreciation of ruble not only has bad effects but also has good effects.And it also not only affect their own but other countries.This p

3、aper is divided into four chapters.They are introduction,causes,influences and conclusion.The first chapter is a simple introduction of Russian economic crisis.The second chapter is a analysis about the cause of the crisis through four aspects:oil price,economic sanctions,population resources and ot

4、her causes.Then this paper makes a brief analysis of the influence.This study focuses on the reason and influence of the 2014 Russian Financial Crisis in order to make people have a better understanding of the crisis.Sometimes people only concentrate on the bad influence while ignoring the other asp

5、ects.Therefore,you can learn some other things about the crisis through the article.Key words: Russian Financial Crisis;Ruble;Oil Price;Economic Sanctions1. IntroductionThe 2014 Russian financial crisis is the result of a rapid decline in the Russian ruble relative to other currencies during the sec

6、ond half of 2014 and a slowdown in the Russian economy.A decline in confidence in the Russian economy caused investors to sell off their Russian assets, causing a decline in the value of the Russian ruble and sparking fears of a Russian financial crisis.The lack of confidence in the Russian economy

7、stemmed from at least two major sources. The first is the fall in the price of oil in 2014. Crude oil, a major export of Russia, declined in price by nearly 50% between its yearly high in June 2014 and 16 December 2014.The second is the result of international economic sanctions imposed on Russia fo

8、llowing Russias annexation of Crimeaand Russian military intervention in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the Western nations of engineering the Russian economic crisis. He has also said, Our (Western) partners have not stopped. They decided that they are winners, they are an empire

9、 now and the rest are vassals and they have to be driven into a corner.The crisis has affected the Russian economy, both consumers and companies, as well as having a negative impact on global financial markets. The Russian stock market in particular has experienced large declines, with a 30% decline

10、 in the RTS Index from the beginning of December through 16 December1.2.Causes2.1Fall in Oil PricesThe price of oil fell from $100 per barrel in June 2014 to $60 per barrel in December 2014. The drop in the oil prices was caused by a drop in the demand for oil across the world, as well as increased

11、oil production in the United States.This fall in oil prices hit Russia hard, as roughly half of the Russian Federations governmental revenue comes from the sale of oil and gas2.At one point the ruble hit a record low of 53.86 to the dollar a move of 6.5 per cent, according to Reuters data though it

12、later pared some of its losses.Russias economy suffers from Dutch disease, a term economists use to describe a situation in which a country focuses on developing its natural resources to the detriment of other economic activity.In 2014, Russia needed an oil price of $100 per barrel to have a balance

13、d budget. Pressure on the ruble grew after last weeks decision by Opec, the oil producers cartel, not to cut output to shore up prices, provoking a further fall in the crude price.Brent,the international benchmark,which hit a five-year low just under $68 a barrel yesterday, has now fallen for five s

14、traight months its longest losing streak since the 2008 financial crisis. It later moved back above $72 a barrel3.Russia is not alone in feeling the ill effects of falling oil prices, as several other countries, including Venezuela, Nigeria, andKazakhstan, also faced reduced revenues and economic ac

15、tivity.2.2 Economic SanctionsWith the eastward expansion of NATO and the European Union, Russia suffered a growing number of political and military pressure, so the Russia rises of a geopolitical political and military conflict in Ukraine.So the EU and the US lift a flag of economic sanctions in ord

16、er to force Putin to make a concession on the issue of Ukraine. Putin has taken a series of anti-sanctions, including a ban on imports of EU fruit and vegetables.The economic sanctions had a big effect on Russian trade and financial industry. Any international aid to Russia is considered unlikely as

17、 a result of the 2014 Russian military intervention in Ukraine4.Officials in the U.S government have also said, despite the financial crisis, that the United States and the European Union will not ease economic sanctions imposed on Russia due to Russiasannexation of Crimea and Russian assistance to

18、Novorossiya militants fighting Ukraine in the War in the Donbass.The U.S. believes the sanctions have negatively affected the Russian economy so far and also expects the economic sanctions to lead to the further decline of the Russian economy.Economic sanctions have also contributed to the decline o

19、f the ruble since Russian companies have been prevented from rolling over debt, forcing companies to exchange their rubles for U.S. dollars or other foreign currencies on the open market to meet their interest payment obligations on their existing debt5.2.3 Population ResourcesMost people claim that

20、 the reason why the economy of Russia collapse is western sanctions and international oil prices plummeted.However,in fact,the Russian Financial Crisis has its deeper and more important reason,its also the truth of the crisis,and the reason also decided that the Russian financial crisis is inevitabi

21、lity.Its the population.Western sanctions and international oil prices are just the fuse6.With the development of human society, human capital becomes more scarce and precious,on the contrary,the natural resources will become relatively cheaper.This is useless for Russia,because Russian abundant nat

22、ural resources becomes cheaper,and the manpower has become increasingly expensive. With the rise in wage and income levels, the price of the human resources is also on the rise.So in the future, the most valuable thing is human labor.In other words,the biggest crisis that the Russian economy will fa

23、ce is the cheaper of the natural resources and the more expensive human labor.2.4 Other Possible CausesThe dollar was weakened by the global financial crisis of 2008. But with the USs withdrawal of its quantitative easing policy and its economic recovery, the dollar began to strengthen, and prices o

24、f bulk commodities began to fall.The decline in prices of bulk commodities and energy, which are dollar-denominated, brings great negative impact on Russias economy7.And Russian President Vladimir Putin has been criticized for running a kleptocracy in which a small number of rent-seeking plutocrats

25、drain the economy.Russia was ranked second in the world on The Economists 2014 crony-capitalism index.Russia was already near a recession before the Crimean Crisis, and Russia ranks low on the World Economic Forums rankings of road quality, technological adaptation, and burden of government regulati

26、on.Russias already-weak economy left it less able to withstand the challenges imposed by low oil prices and international sanctions. The Russian Central Banks erratic response to the falling ruble has also been blamed for deepening the crisis.3. Influences3.1 Influence on Russia3.1.1 Bad Influencea.

27、PoliticsAs a popular saying goes: economic base determines the superstructure,so there is no doubt that Russian economic crisis will affect Russian politics.With the depreciation of ruble,Russian economy falls into crisis,so as leaders who serve for public,they will have no time to make themselves r

28、elax.Therefore,Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday scrapped New Years holidays for government ministers because of the unfolding economic crisis.Russian company employees throughout the country are entitled to holiday from January 1 to January 12 when Russians celebrate the New Year, the ma

29、in holiday in Russia, as well as Orthodox Christmas on January 7.Putin told a televised government session on Thursday that cabinet ministers should not take this time off. For the government, for your agencies we cannot afford this long holiday, at least this year - you know what I mean, he said.Pr

30、ime Minister Dmitry Medvedev told cabinet ministers on Thursday he expects them to keep the situation in check even during the holiday lull from the first days of the year8.Only when they solve the problem can they have a good time. b. The Peoples LivelihoodThe is no doubt that Financial Crisis will

31、 affect peoples livelihood.With the depreciation of ruble,people must spend more money to buy things what they want.For example,the price of the food and necessities of life will rise with the depreciation of ruble,so people will try their best to make panic purchase in order to sure that they have

32、buy enough food with the relatively low price.Therefore,goods on sale will make panic market,it makes the markets regulation becomes more useless.On the contrary,because people dont have redundant money to buy other things except foods, the sales of imported products steep fall in price.Some of Russ

33、ians postpone their project about cars and other bulk products because of crisis.Russians have been buying up big-ticket items as the ruble depreciates,converting savings into consumer goods lest their savings become worthless. Appliance stores in Moscow have seen runs on refrigerators, washing mach

34、ines and televisions9.c. ImportThe depreciation of ruble affects not only import but also export.Because of the depreciate of ruble,Russian companies must spend more money if they want to buy other countries production.So there is no doubt that it is bad for import. 3.1.2 Good InfluenceAlthough Russ

35、ia is a big country which has a rich resources in nature,and the basis of its industrial production is still very strong,there is no doubt that the financial crisis will impact Russian economy in a short-term.However,with the price of international oil firming up and the situation of Ukraine stabili

36、zing.The crisis on the Russian economy will go to end,and the time will not be too long.In the long term,the crisis on the Russian economy also has some advantages,for example,the crisis hits the capitalization of the short-term investment,and it also encourages the Russian government to reduce the

37、dependence on resource exports and increase the international competitiveness of the domestic industries in order to avoid Dutch disease.The crisis in Russia is just doing a push-up10.And its also good for export and tourism.Because of the depreciation of ruble.So there are more people going to Russ

38、ia,so its good for the development of tourism.3.2 Influence on Global Financial MarketThe financial crisis in Russia has affected other global financial markets.The U.S. financial markets declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down nearly 3% in 3 business days, in part due to the Russian fi

39、nancial crisis.The crisis drew comparisons to the 1998 Russian financial crisis that affected global markets.Economist Olivier Blanchard of the IMF noted that the uncertainty caused by Russias economic crisis could lead to greater worldwide risk aversion in a manner similar to the Financial crisis o

40、f 2007-200811.However, the 2014 international sanctions on Russia decreased Russias financial connections with the broader financial world, which in turn lowered the risk that an ailing Russian economy would affect the worldwide economy.Since 1998, Russia and many other countries have adopted a floa

41、ting exchange rate, which could also help to prevent Russian financial woes from affecting the rest of the world.3.3 Influence on ChinaChina and Russia are both trying to decrease dependence on the U.S. dollar in international trading. In October,the countries agreed on a $24 billion currency swap t

42、o strengthen the ruble and make trading easier between the two partners.China and Russia both need each other.Earlier this year China signed a 30-year $400 billion deal to buy Russian gas and shore up their energy supplies.Western economic sanctions placed on Russia after its meddling in the Ukraine

43、 have also forced the country to import more from China. Chinas exports to Russia are up over 10% from last year.Russias struggles are also a prime opportunity for China to showcase its economic prowess.Chinas buying power and global emergence is altering the global landscape. 3.3.1 Influence on Chi

44、nese economyThe crisis of ruble affecting Chinas economy is reflected in the trade payments. However, Sino-Russian trade in relation to the total size of Chinas foreign trade accounted for less. Data show that in 2013, bilateral trade amounted to $ 88.8 billion, accounting for 2 percent of Chinas to

45、tal annual trade. In addition, the RMB (6.2085, -0.0058, -0.09%) internationalization will be some new challenges.In recent years, China-Russia economic cooperation has gone far beyond the field of energy cooperation, comprehensive cooperation accelerated. How to avoid or reduce the exchange rate ri

46、sk requires careful consideration Influence on Chinese EnergyRussia, as Chinese important trade partner,having a close cooperation in trade, energy, investment and finance with China.Chinese the main investment in Russia is the subject of the infrastructure in energy.So it must be affected i

47、f the oil prices in Russia falling,which will bring security uncertainty of Chinese energy. 3.3.3 Chinese Peoples LivelihoodWith the depreciation of the ruble,Chinas border tourism and trade this year is also greatly reduced,because it means that they must pay more money for Chinese goods and other

48、things13.But there is another phenomenon,people will spend less money if they go abroad and they can spend less money to buy more things.A few days before a sharp fall in the number of the ruble,there are many people going abroad to buy iphone and other electronic products.4.ConclusionRussian President Vladimir Putin has taken part in his annual year-end news conference, arguing Russia is not in an economic crisis.He says that Financial turmoil does not equal an economic crisis.The Russian leader has gone on-record saying he believes the Russian economy will revived in 2-years.Putin