国际经济学 by 杨思群ch8

1、.1Ch8. Balance of payments and international indebtedness and international financial market.21. Disequilibrium in the model of international trade External disequilibrium.32. The balance of payment: current and capital account Trade in goods: raw materials and capital goods consumer goods, Trade in

2、 service: transport, insurance services as travel service. Interest,dividend etc., a country with external indebtedness has relied on foreign factors of production and has to pay for the factor services rendered. Transfers items: unilateral transfers (aid) and general transfers. Current account bala

3、nce: goods,service and transfers constitute it. Common reference to balance of payment surplus or deficit (is precisely a reference to the current account of the balance of payments) . .4International dealings may be in the form of transactions involving securities, shares and bonds and money(bank d

4、eposits) international trade in money and securities results in capital movements, which are recorded on the capital account of the balance of payments. Current account versus capital account If the current account of the balance of payments show a surplus, then the capital account must at the same

5、time show a corresponding deficit. It must show a change in currency reserves and in international lending.Currency reserves consist of the liquid claims of the central bank on other countries minus the foreign liabilities of the bank. The currency reserves include the gold reserves of the bank, Cur

6、rent account surplus (CA), public and private net borrowing abroad(B) and the increase in currency reserves (detaL) LBCA.5BOP: Double-entry book-keeping, current account vs. capital accountCurrency receipts （贷）(Debit)（对本国的支付）Currency expenditure （借）(Credit) (本国对外支付）Trade in goods 12Services 34transf

7、ers56Current accountIncrease in liabilitiesIncrease in assetsDirect investment78Lending910Change in currency reserves1112Capital account .6Autonomous and accommdating itemsAs a whole, a balance of payments is always in equilibrium, therefore any disequilibrium will be in one of the subtotals mequili

8、brui in alwaysitems capitalitemscurrent itemstransfer items services and goods items servicesitems goods.7The crucial characteristic of automomous items is that they result from “independent business motives”, on assumption that private sector capital imports and exports are autonomous Left-hand sid

9、e of the equation sign autonomous items. And accommodating items on the right-hand side.Automous and accommodating under floating and fixed exchange rates.Floating exchange rates: if the authorities do not interveneFixed exchange rates: the authorities are under an obligation to secure the rate of e

10、xchange. Authorities have to compensate for any dis-equilibrium caused by the automoumous items. Two tools are at hands: loans or change reserves. gpBLBCA0gBL.8.93. The transfer problemSaving and BOPGovernment expenditure, private borrowing and BOP crises of Latin America crises of SA)()()()()(GTISM

11、XMXGITSCYMXGICY)()()()(pgBBLGTISMXCA.104. Factors influnce the BOP.115. International capital movements.125. International capital movement5.1 A stylized profile: a store of industrializing countries .135.2 recent capital movement .14.15.16.175.3 international indebtedness: a problem?positive effect

12、s (all agents may benefits from indebtedness), same reflected only in the real world prior to IWW. less positive effects in 80s Latin American LDCs. Case of Chile and Brazilconclusion: Foreign indebtedness presents no problem in itself but may turn out to be highly problematic if lenders and borrows

13、 do not behave rationally or if conditions change quite unpredictably.185.4 limits to foreign debt: a simple model creditworthiness of the country are determined by political and economic factors. Political factor: political stability Economic key figures International liquidity Interest payments re

14、lative to exports Exports relative to GDP Foreign debt (D) relative to GDP (Y): b=D/Y A sustained deficit simple model)()()()(/)(igbYDibgYXMMXDiYgbYbDYYgMXDiDOnly if the growth rate in GDP is above the average interest rate involved in the debt service will a sustained deficit be consistent with an

15、unchanged debt burden.196. Foreign exchange market Market description extend and structure Product of market Spot & future market Functions of market mediator of purchasing power: from one currency area to anther creditor facilities (international deposites and lending, international bonds and s

16、tock market investment and issuses) reduce exchange risk: exchange forward market provide that function .20 Demand and supply of foreign exchange(spot market) demand of market motives for demand of foreign currency can be revealed at the BOP. Import, carriage by foreign vessels, tourism, Oversea inv

17、estment Increasing foreign currency reserves supply of market Export, foreign tourists spending Foreign investment Foreigner Increasing their domestic assts and claims .21Players in the market .22Quantity of foreign (USD) currency RMB/USDSupply of USDDemand of USDOP0Q0Demand and supply of foreign cu

18、rrencyLBCA.23Quantity of foreign (USD) currency RMB/USDSupply of USDDemand of USDOP0Q0Change of the demand and supply of foreign currencyIf no authorities intervene:CA+B=0CA+Bp=0Q&A: factors cause the change of D&S.24Fixed exchange rate, change of the demand and supply of foreign currency, a

19、uthortitys interveneRMB/USDQuantity of USDUpper intervention limitLower intervention limitUpper intervention limitLower intervention limitABCgpBLBCAQ&A: why in a system of fixed exchange rates appropriate size of foreign exchange reserves is requried?.257. Exchange rate systemFloating rate syste

20、mFixed rate system Gold standardIMF system 1944, Bretton Woods ConferenceFixed rate system but adjustable, Dollar Standard: $USD35/one ounce of gold, par value defined in terns of gold to IMF, 1% floating, change rate when a fundamental disequilibrium is encounteredIMF: credit facilities for each me

21、mber Vietnam War, 1973 fixed to floating.268.change national competitiveness8.1 is it measurable for a countrys competitiveness? 8.1.1 a standardized balance of paymentsA deficit of BOP is often associated with a low degree of competitiveness relative to that of other countries. However, some of rea

22、sons of change of it are unrelated to competitiveness.Sometime BOP also have trade-off.Short termLong termFirm level Industry levelCountry level.278.1.2 market share changes Market share: in current prices, change of price can not reflect competitiveness, quantities are not showed fixed prices: quality of product are difficulty to be measured 8.1.3 price and cost development (cause of competitiveness, CPP)Price proble