【精品】DSS-review决策支持系统

1、chapter 1management support systems:an overviewproductivitythe ratio of outputs to in puts that measures the degree of success of anorganization and its individual partsfactors affecting decision-makingnew technologies and better information distribution have resulted in morealternatives for managem

2、ent.complex operations have increased the costs of errors, causing a chain reactionthroughout the organization.rapidly changing global economies and markets are producing greater uncertaintyand requiring faster response in order to maintain competitive adva ntages.in creasi ng governme ntal reg u i

3、at i on coupled with political destabilizati on havecaused great uncertainty.what do decision support systems offer?quick computations at a lower costgroup collaboration and communicationincreased productivityready access to information stored in multiple databases and data warehouseability to an al

4、yze multiple alter natives and apply risk man agemententerprise resource managementtools to obtain and maintain competitive advantagecognitive limitsthe human mind has limited processing and storage capabilities.any single person is therefore limited in their decision making abilities.collaboration

5、with others allows for a wider range of possible answers, but will oftenbe faced with communications problems.computers improve the coordination of these activities.this knowledge sharing is enhaneed through the use of gss, kms, and eis management support systemsthe support of manageme nt tasks by t

6、he applicati on of tech no logies- sometimes called decision support systems or businessintelligencemanagement support systems toolsdssmanagement sciencebusiness analyticsdata miningdata warehousebusiness intelligenceolapcase toolsgsseiseipermerpcrmscmkmskmpesannintelligent agentse-commerce dssdecis

7、ion support frameworkstechnologies for decision-making processestechnology support based on anthony5s taxonomymanagement scienee/ operations researchtype of controltype of decision: operationalcontrolmanagerialcontrolstrategic planningstructured(programmed)accountsreceivable,accounts payable,order e

8、ntrybudget analysis,short-termforecasting，personnel reportsinvestmentswarehouselocations,distribution centerssemistructuredproductionscheduling,inventory controlcredit evaluation,budgetpreparationprojectscheduling,rewards systemsmergersandacquisitions, newproduct planning,compensation, qa、hrpolicypl

9、anningunstructured(unprogrammed)buying software,approving loans，help desknegotiationsrecruitment,hardwarepurchasingr&dplanning,technologydevelopment, socialresponsibility plansenterprise i nformation systems evolved from executive information systems combined with webtechnologies eips view infor

10、mation across entire organizations provide rapid access to detailed information through drill-down. provide user-friendly interfaces through portals identifies opportunities and threatsenterprise i nformation systems specialized systems include erm, erp, crm, and scm provides timely and effective co

11、rporate level tracking and control. filter, compress, and track critical data and information.knowledge management systems knowledge that is organized and stored in a repository for use by anorganization can be used to solve similar or identical problems in the future rois as high as a factor of 25

12、within one to two yearsexpert systemstech no logies that apply reasoning methodologies in a specific domainattempts to mimic human experts5problem solvingemerging technologiesgrid computingimproved guismodel-driven architectures with code reusem-based and l-based wireless computingintelligent agents

13、genetic algorithmsheuristics and new problem-solving techniqueschapter 2decision-making systems, models, and supportdecision making process of choosing amongst alternative courses of action for thepurpose of attaining a goal or goals the four phases of the decision process are:一intelligence一desig n-

14、choice一implementationsystems structure一inputs一processes一outputs一feedback from output to decision maker separated from environment by boundary surrounded by environmentsystem types closed system一independent-takes no inputs一delivers no outputs to the envir on merit一black box open system-accepts inputs

15、一delivers outputs to environmentmodels used for dss iconic-small physical replication of system analog一behavioral representation of system一may not look like system quantitative (mathematical)一demonstrates relationships between systemsphases of decision making simon5s original three phases:一intellige

16、nce一desig n-choice he added fourth phase later:一implementation book adds fifth stage:一monitoringdecision-making intelligence phase scan the environment analyze organizational goals collect data identify problem categorize problem一programmed and non-programmed一decomposed into smaller parts assess own

17、ership and responsibility for problem resolutiondecision-making design phasedevelop alter native courses of acti onanalyze potential solutionscreate modeltest for feasibilityvalidate resultsselect a principle of choice一incorporate into models一risk assessment and acceptancedecision-making choice phas

18、e principle of choice一describes acceptability of a solution approach normative models一optimization一rationalizationcourses of action are known quantityoptions ranked from best to worse一suboptimizationdecisions made in separate parts of orga nization without con sideration of wholedescriptive models d

19、escribe how things are believed to be typically, mathematically based applies single set of alternatives examples:-simulations一what-if seenarios-cognitive map一narrativesdeveloping alternatives gen eration of alternatives一may be automatic or manual一may be legion, leading to information overload一scena

20、rios一evaluate with heuristics-outcome measured by goal attainmentdecision-making choice phase decision making with commitment to act determine courses of action一analytical techniques-algorithms一heuristics一blind searches analyze for robustnessdecision-making implementation phase putting solution to w

21、ork vague boundaries which in elude:一dealing with resistance to change一user training一upper management support decision support systems intelligence phase一automaticdata mining- expert systems, crm, neural networks一manual decision support systems design phase一financial and forecasting models一generati

22、on of alter natives by expert system一relationship identification through olap and data mining一business process models from crm, rms, erp, and scmdecision support systems choice phase一identification of best alternative一identification of good enough alter native一what-if analysis一may use kms, gss, crm,

23、 erp, and scm systemsdecision support systems implementation phase一improved communications一collaboration-training一supported by kms, expert systems, gssfigure 2.3 oss supportchapter 3decision support systems: an overviewdss a dss is a methodology that supports decision-making. it is:一flexible;-adapti

24、ve;一interactive;-gui-based;一iterative;一employs modeling.components of dss subsystems:一data management managed by dbms一model management managed by mbms一user interface一knowledge management and organizational knowledge basedata management subsystem components:一databaseanndssescrmscmmisdata mining, olap

25、eis errgss eis scm crm errkms management scienceanngss eis一kmserr一database management system一data directory-query facilitydatabase interrelated data extracted from various sources, stored for use bythe organization, and queried一internal data, usually from tps一external data from government agencies,

26、trade associations,market research firms, forecasting firmsdatabase management system extracts data manages data and their relationships updates (add, delete, edit, change) retrieves data (accesses it) queries and manipulates data employs data dictionarydata directory catalog of all data一contains da

27、ta definitions一answers questions about the availability of data items一source一meani ng-allows for additions, removals, and alterationsmodel management subsystem components:一model base一model base management system一modeling ianguage一model directory一model execution, integration, and command processormod

28、els strategic一supports top management decisions tactical一used primarily by middle management to allocate resources operati onal一supports daily activities analytical一used to perform analysis of datamodel base management system functi ons:一model creation一model updates一model data manipulation一generatio

29、n of new routines model directory:一catalog of models一defin itionsmodel management activities model execution一controls running of model model command processor一receives model instructions from user interface一routes instructions to mbms or module execution or integrationfunctions model integration-com

30、bines several models operationsuser in terface systemuser interface management system gui natural language processor interacts with model management and data managementsubsystems examples一speech recog nition一display panel一tactile in terfacesknowledge-based management system expert or intelligent age

31、nt system component complex problem solving enhances operations of other components may consist of several systems often text-oriented dssdss classifications alter一extent to which outputs can directly support or determine thedecision一data oriented or model oriented holsapple and whinston-text orient

32、ed, database oriented, spreadsheet oriented, solveroriented, rule oriented, or compound donovan and madnick一institutional一problems of recurring nature gss v. individual dss一decisions made by entire group or by lone decision maker custom made v. ven dor ready made一gen eric dss may be modified for use

33、chapter 4modeling and analysis promodel simulation created representing entire transport system applied what-if analyses visual simulation identified varying conditions identified bottlenecks allowed for downsized fleet without downsizing deliveriesmss modeling key element in dss multiple models oft

34、en included in a dss can be object-oriented enhances decision makingdss models algorithm-based models statistic-based models linear programming models graphical models quantitative models qualitative models simulation modelsproblem identification environmental seanning and analysis business intellig

35、ence identify variables and relationships一in flue nee diagrams-cognitive maps forecasting一fueled by e-commerce一in creased amounts of information available through technologystatic models single photograph of situation single interval time can be rolled forward, a photo at a time usually repeatable s

36、teady state一optimal operating parameters一continuous一unvarying一primary tool for process designdynamic model represent changing situations time dependent varying conditions generate and use trends occurrence may not repeatdecision-making certainty-assume complete knowledge-all potential outcomes known

37、一easy to develop一resolution determined easilyuncertainty一several outcomes for each decision一probability of occurrence of each outcome unknown一insufficient information probabilistic decision-making一decision under risk一probability of each of several possible outcomes occurring一risk analysisinfluence d

38、iagrams graphical representation of model provides relationship framework examines dependencies of variables any level of detail shows impact of change shows what-if analysisvariables:arrows indicate type of relationship and direction of influencedecisionintermediate oruncontrollablecertaintyinteres

39、tearnedsalesuncertaintymodeling with spreadsheets flexible and easy to use end-user modeling tool allows linear programming and regression analysis features what-if analysis, data management, macros seamless and tran spare nt incorporates both static and dynamic modelsdecision tree graphical represe

40、ntation of relationships multiple criteria approach demon st rates complex relationships cumbersome, if many alternativesmss mathematical models link decision variables, uncontrollable variables, parameters, andresult variables together nonquantitative models一symbolic relationship一qualitative relati

41、onship一results based upondecision selectedfactors beyond control of decision makerrelationships amongst variablessensitivity, what-if, and goal seeking analysissensitivitywhat-ifgoal seekingsearch approaches analytical techniques (algorithms) for structured problems一general, step-by-step search一obta

42、ins an optimal solution blind search一complete enumeration一in complete一achieves particular goal一may obtain optimal goal heurisitic一repeated, step-by-step searches一rule-based, so used for specific situations一“good enough” solution, but, eventually, will obtain optimal goal一examples ofheuristicstabu se

43、arch一remembers and directs toward higher quality choicesgenetic algorithms一randomly examines pairs of solutions and mutationssimulationsimitation of realityallows for experimentation and time compressiondescriptive, not normativecan include complexities, but requires special skillshandles unstructur

44、ed problemsoptimal solution not guaranteedmethodology-problem definition- construction of model- testi ng and validation-design of experiment-experimentation-evaluation-implementation probabilistic independent variables一discrete or continuous distributions time-dependent or time-independent visual i

45、nteractive modeling一graphical一decision-makers interact with simulated model一may be used with artificial intelligence can be objected orientedmodel-based management system software that allows model organization with transparent dataprocessing capabilities一dss user has control一flexible in design一give

46、s feedback- gui based一reduction of redundancy一in crease in con sistency一communication between combined models relational model base management system一virtual file一virtual relationship object-oriented model base management system一logical independence database and mis design model systems一data diagram

47、, erd diagrams managed by case toolschapter 5busin ess intellige nee: data warehousing, data acquisition, datamining, business analytics, and visualization network of systems that provide knowledge integration anddistribution horizontal and vertical information sharing mining of data stored in web-e

48、nabled warehousedata, information, knowledge data一items that are the most elementary descriptions of things, events, activities, andtransacti ons一may be internal or external information一organized data that has meaning and value knowledge一processed data or information that conveys understanding or le

49、arning applicableto a problem or activitydata raw data collected manually or by instruments quality is critical一quality determines usefulness一often neglected or casually han died一problems exposed when data is summarized cleanse data一when populating warehouse一data quality action plan一best practices f

50、or data quality一measure results data integrity issues一uniformity一version一completeness check一conformity check一genealogy or drill-down data in teg rati on access needed to multiple sources一often enterprise-wide一disparate and heterogeneous databases-xml becoming language standardexternal data sources w

51、eb一intelligent agents一document management systems一content management systems commercial databases一sell access to specialized databasesdatabase management systems software program supplements operating system manages data queries data and generates reports data security combines with modeling languag

52、e for construction of dssdatabase modelshierarchicalnetworkrelationalobject orienteddata warehousesubject orientedscrubbed so that data from heterogeneous sources are standardizedtime series; no current statusnonvolatile- read onlysummarizednot normalized; may be redundantdata from both internal and

53、 external sources is presentmetadata in eluded-data about databusin ess metadatasemantic metadataarchitecture may have one or more tiers一determined by warehouse, data acquisition (back end), and client(front end)one tier, where all run on same platform, is raretwo tier usually combines dss engine (c

54、lient) with warehouse- more economicalthree tier separates these functional partsdata marts depe ndent- created from warehouse一replicatedfunctional subset of warehouse independent一scaled down, less expensive version of data warehouse一designed for a department or sbu一organization may have multiple da

55、ta martsbusiness intelligenee and analytics business intelligence-acquisition of data and informatio n for use in decision-maki ngactivities business analytics一models and solution methods data mining一applying models and methods to data to identify patterns andtrendsolapactivities performed by end us

56、ers in online systemsmodeling and visualization capabilitiesspecial class of toolsdata mining organizes and employs information and knowledge from databases statistical, mathematical, artificial intelligenee, and machine-learningtechniques automatic and fast tools look for patterns一simple models一int

57、ermediate models一complex models data mining application classes of problems一classification一clustering一association一sequencing一regression一forecast!ng-otherstools and techniques data mining一statistical methods一decision trees一case based reasoning一neural computing一intelligent agents一genetic algorithmskno

58、wledge discovery in databases data mining used to find patter ns in datadata visualization technologies supporting visualization and interpretation一digital imaging, gis, gui, tables, multidimensions, graphs, vr,3d, animation一identify relati on ships and trendsgis computerized system for managing and

59、 manipulating data withdigitized maps一geographically oriented一geographic spreadsheet for models一software allows web access to maps一used for modeling and simulationschapter 6decision support system developmentsystems development life cycle four phases一planning一analysis一design一implementation cyclical

60、can return to other phases waterfall modeltoolscomputer-aided software design tools一upper case一creates systems diagrams一lower caseman ages diagrams and code一integrated casecombi nationrad design tools一enterprise class repository and collaboration一uml modelinganalysis and design softwarecode debugging me