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1、the world change with really remarkable (卓越的)speed. if you look at the chart at the top here, you'll see that in 2025, these goldman sachs projections suggest that the chinese economy will be almost the same size as the american economy. and you look at the chart for 2050, it's projected (投射
2、的)that the chinese economy will be twice the size of the american economy, and the indian economy will be almost the same size as the american economy. and we should bear in mind here that these projection were drawn up before the western financial crisis. a couple of weeks ago, i was looking at the
3、 latest projection by bnp paribas for when china will have a larger economy than the united states. goldman sachs projected 2027. the post-crisis projection is 2020. that's just a decade away. china is going to change the world in two fundamental (基本的)respects. first of all, it's a huge deve
4、loping country with the population of 1.3 billion people, which has been growing for over 30 years at around 10 percent a year. and within a decode, it will have the largest economy in the world. never before in the modern era has the largest economy in the world been that of a developing country, r
5、ather than a developed country. secondly, for the first time in the modern era, the dominant (占优势的; 统治的) country in the world which i think is what china will become will back not from the west and from very, very different civilizational roots (木艮;木艮源).now i know it's a widespread assumption in
6、 the west that, as countries modernize (使现代 化),they also westernize (使西洋化).this is a illusion (幻觉; 错觉;错误的观点).it*s an assumption that modernity (现代性; 现代的东西)is a product simply of competition, markets and technology. it is not; it is also shaped equally by history and culture. china is not like the we
7、st, and it will not become like the west. tt will remain in very fundamental respects very different. now big question here is obviously, how do we make sense of china? how do we try to understand what china is? and the problem we have in the west at the moment by-and-large(大体上;总的来说)is that the conv
8、entional (传统的)approach is that we understand it really in western terms, using western ideas. we can't. now i want to offer you three building blocks for trying to understand what china is like just as a beginnning. the first is this, that china is not really a nation state. okay , it's call
9、ed itself a nation state for the last hundred years. but everyone who knows anything about china knows it's a lot older than this. this was what china looked like with the victory of the qin dynasty in 221 b.c.at the end of the warring (交战的;敌对的)state periodic (周期的)一 the birth of modern china. an
10、d you can see it against the boundaries (边 界) of modern china. or immediately afterward, the han dynasty (王朝),still 2,000 years ago. and you can see already it occupies most of what we now know as eastern china, which is where the vast majority of chinese lived then and live now. now what is extraor
11、dinary about this is, what gives china it's sense of being china, what gives the chinese the sense of what it is to be chinese, comes not from the last hundred years, not from the nation state periodic, which is what happened in the west, but from the period, if you like, of the civilization sta
12、te. i'm thinking here, for example, of customs like ancestral (祖先白勺) worship (崇拜;尊敬),of a very distinctive (有特色的;与众不 同的)notion (概念)of the state, likewise (同样地)z a very distinctive notion of family, social relationships like guanxi, confucian (儒家白勺) values and so on. these are all things that com
13、e from the period of the civilization state. in other words, china, unlike the western states and most countries in the world, is shaped by its sense of civilization, its existence as a civilization state, rather than as a nation state. and there's one other thing to add to this, and that is thi
14、s. of course we know china's big, huge, demographically (人口 统计) and geographically (在地理上),with a population of 1.3 billion people.what we often aren't really aware of is the fact that china is extremely diverse and very pluralistic (多元化的),and in many ways very decerrtralized (分散白勺).you can
15、39;t run a place on this scale simply from beijing, even though we think this to be the case. lt's never been the case. so this is china, a civilization state, rather than a nation state. and what does it mean? well i think it has all sorts of (各种各样的)profound (深厚的;意义 深远的)implications (含义).i'
16、ll give you two quick ones. the first is that the most important political value for the chinese is unity, is the maintenanee (维护,保持)of chinese civilization. you know, 2,000 years ago, europe: breakdown, the fragmentation (分裂)of the holy roman empire. it divided, and it's remained divided ever s
17、ince china, over the same time period, went in exactly the opposite direction, very painfully holding this huge civilization, civilization state together. the second is maybe more prosaic (平凡的; 乏味的),which is hong kong. do you remember the handover (移交)of hong kong by britain to china in 1997? you ma
18、y remember what the chinese constitutional (宪法的)proposition (主题)was. one country, two systems. and i'll lay a wager (扌丁赌) that barely anyone in the west believed them. "window dressing (粉饰).when china gets it*s hands on hong kong, that won't be the case.11 13 years onz the political and
19、 the legal system in hong kong is as different now as it was in 1997. we were wrong. why were we wrong? we were wrong because we thought, naturally enough, in nation state ways. think of german unification, 1990. what happened? well, basically the east was swallowed by the west. one nation, one syst
20、em that is the nation state mentality d、 态).but you can't run a country like china, a civilization state, on the basis of one civilization, one system it doesn't work. so actually the response of china to the question of hong kong as it will be to the question of taiwan was a natural respons
21、e: one civilization, many systems. let me offer you another building block to try and understand china maybe not such a comfortable one. the chinese have a very, very different conception (概念)of race to most other countries. do you know, of the 1.3 billion chinese, over 90 percent of them think they
22、 belong to the same race, the han. now this is completely different from the other world's most populous (人口稠密的) countries. india , the united states, indonesia, brazil all of them are multiracial. the chinese don't feel like that. china is only multiracial really at the margins (边缘).so the
23、question is, why? well the reason, i think, essentially (本质上)is, again, back to the civilization state a history of at least 2,000 years, a history of conquest (征战),occupation (占有),absorption (吸 收),assimilation (同化)and so on, led to the process by which, over time, this notion of han emerged (出现) of
24、 course, nurtured (养育) by a growing and very powerful sense of cultural identity (文化身份;文化认同).now the great advantage of this historical experience has been that, without the han, china could never have held together. the han identity has been the cement (接合齐!j) which has held this country together t
25、he great disadvantage of it that the han have a very weak conception of cultural difference. they really believe in their own superiority, and they are disrespectful of those who are not. hence(因止匕)their attitude, for example, to the uyghurs and to the tibe+ans (藏族).or let me give you my third build
26、ing block, the chinese state. now the relationship between the state and society in china is very different from that in the west. now we in the west overwhelmingly (压侄ij性地)seem to think in these days at least that the authority (权威) and legitimacy (止统 性)of the state is a function of democracy (民主).
27、the problem with this proposition is that the chinese state enjoys more legitimacy and more authority amongst (在之中) the chinese than is true w计h (对一样;对也是真的)any western state. and the reason for this is because well, there are two reasons, i think. and it's obviously got nothing to do with democr
28、acy, because in our terms the chinese certainly don't have a democracy. and the reason for this is, firstly, because the state in china is given a very special it enjoys a very special significance (意义;重要性)as the representative (彳弋表) embodiment 体现)and the guardian(保护人;守护者)of chinese civilization
29、, of the civilization state this is as close as china gets to a kind of spiritual role. and the second reason is because, whereas (然而; 鉴于; 反之)in europe and north america, the state's power is continuously (连续不断地)challenged 一 i mean in the european tradition, historically (历史上地) against the churc
30、h (教会),against other sec tors (分区; 部门) of the aristocracy (贵族),against merchants (商人) and so on for 1,000 years, the power of the chinese state has not been challenged. it's had no serious rivals (对手).so you can see that the way in which power has been constructed (构建)in china is very different
31、from our experience in western history. the result, by the way, is that the chinese have a very different view of the state. whereas we tend to view it as intruder (侵入 者),a stranger, certainly an organ (机构) whose powers need to be limited or defined (确定的;清晰的)and constrained (被 强迫的,不舒服的),the chinese
32、don't see the state like that at all. the chinese view the state as an intimate 3;至交) not just as an intimate actually, as a member of the family not just in fact as a member of the family, but as the head of the family, the patriarch (家长)of the family. this is the chinese view of the st ate ver
33、y, very different to ours. lt's embedded (嵌入)in society in a different kind of way to what is the case in the west. and i would suggest to you that actually what we are dealing with here, in the chinese context (环境),is a new kind of paradigm (范例),which is different from anything we've had to
34、 think about in the past. know that china believes in the market and the state. i mean, adam smith, already writing in the late 18th century said, "the chinese market is larger and more developed and more sophisticated (复杂白勺)than anything in europe.1' and, apart from (除.之夕卜)the mao period,
35、that remained more-or-less (或多或少)the case ever since. but this is combined with an extremely strong and ubiquitous (普遍存在 的;无处不在白勺)state. the state is everywhere in china. i mean, it's leading firms (公司; 厂商)z many of them are still publicly owned. private firm, however large they are, like lenovo
36、, depend in many ways on the state patronage (赞助;光顾;任免权) targets for the economy and so on are set by the state. and the st ate, of course, its aut hority flows into (流入)lots of other areas as we are familiar with with something like the one-child policy. moreover, this is a very old state trad计ion,
37、 a very old tradition of statecraft (治国才能).i mean, if you want an illustration (说明)of this, the great wall is one. but this is another, this is the grand can al (大运润i), which was constructed in the first instance (首先; 起初)in the fifth century b.c.and was finally completed in the seventh century a.d. it went for 1,114 miles, linking beijing with hangzhou
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