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1、1COMPARABILITY OF SAVING AND PROFIT RATIOSOECD National Accounts Experts MeetingChateau de la Muette, Paris7-10 October 20032BackgroundnDiscussion of alternative household saving measures at October 2002 NAEMnECB/OECD project Detailed examination of institutional sector accounts for the euro area, t

2、he United States and Japan with particular emphasis on household saving ratios, profit ratios and investment ratiosnScope of this paper Household saving ratios Profit ratios3Household saving ratiosnIssues relating to the basic measure of the household saving ratio Gross or net? Include NPISH? Change

3、 in net equity of households on pension funds Adjusted household disposable incomenProposed definition for use in OECD Statistical Databases (including Annex Table 24 of Economic Outlook)nFurther adjustments to the household saving ratio4Statistical Annex Table 24, OECD Economic Outlook nReproduced

4、as Table 1 - shows household saving ratios for 21 member countriesnFootnotes to this table indicate differences in the data currently being published for various countriesnOECD Economics Department tends to use measures for the household saving ratio and other variables that will be readily recognis

5、ed in the member countries Hence what is published by member countries in their own national accounts has an effect on international comparability5Gross or net household savingnNet is the preferred measurenOnly use gross if COFC estimates are deficientnData for 7 countries is currently shown grossnR

6、ecommendation 1: It is recommended that the seven countries (Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom) include household saving ratios in their national accounts publications on a net basis instead of, or in addition to, the gross measures.6Include NPISHnData for

7、5 countries currently exclude NPISHnRecommendation 2: In the interests of international comparability it is recommended that the five countries (Czech Republic, Finland, France, Japan and New Zealand) also include household saving ratios for households including NPISH in their national accounts publ

8、ications.7Change in net equity of households on pension fundsnCurrent definition: B8 / (B6 + D8) Where B8 = Net household saving B6 = Net household disposable income D8 = Change in net equity of households on pension fundsnTable 2 provides household saving ratios using this formula and data from the

9、 OECD annual SNA93 databasenRecommendation 3: It is recommended that countries that have a non-nil value for the adjustment for the change in equity of households on pension funds (D8) should verify that their own saving ratios are consistent with this definition.8Adjusted household disposable incom

10、enNew concepts introduced in SNA93 Collective and individual consumption for general government Social transfers in kind Actual final consumption Adjusted household disposable incomenNew account in SNA93 Use of adjusted disposable income accountnThese enable a more internationally comparable househo

11、ld saving ratio to be computed9Adjusted household disposable income (cont)nNet household saving (B8) / Net adjusted household disposable income (B7) + Adjustment for the change in equity of households on pension funds (D8)nTable 3 provides household saving ratios for member countries using this defi

12、nition and using data from the OECD annual SNA93 database.nTable 4 shows the differences between this measure and the current measure for the household saving ratio shown in Table 2.10Proposed definition for the household saving rationRecommendation 4: The household saving ratio for inclusion in OEC

13、D Statistical Databases (including Annex Table 24 of the OECD Economic Outlook) should be defined as follows:Net household saving (B8) / Net adjusted household disposable income (B7) + Adjustment for the change in equity of households on pension funds (D8)nThe ratio should be calculated including NP

14、ISH for the present. 11Proposed definition for the household saving ratio (cont)nIt is also recommended that countries publish this measure of household saving in their own national accounts publications in addition to the traditional measure.nQuestion: Are those countries that publish quarterly hou

15、sehold saving ratios able to provide estimates for individual consumption for general government on a quarterly basis?12Adjustments to the household saving rationCapital gains taxesnDirect taxes versus taxes on production and importsnReal net interest payments for householdsnHousehold durablesnPoten

16、tial and realised capital gains/lossesnOther issues regarding pensionsnTreatment of unincorporated enterprisesnFinancial accounts measure13Adjustments to the household saving ratio (cont)nStatistics Directorate is working towards alternative saving measuresnNeed to recognise the limitations of some

17、of the proposed adjustments since it cannot be assumed that the economic behaviour of households would be unaffected if different institutional arrangements actually existed in particular countries.14Capital gains taxesnProposed adjustment Treat capital gains taxes as capital transfers rather than c

18、urrent transfers Add back capital gains taxes to household saving and household disposable income nOECD paper to be discussed under agenda item 29 Seems unlikely that a change in SNA93 will be recommended to the ISWGNAnItem for capital gains taxes added to Table 90015Direct taxes versus taxes on pro

19、duction and importsnSaving is not affected by the mix of these taxes but household disposable income isnHow adjust? Replace taxes on production etc by income taxes Replace income taxes by taxes on production etc Use a standard mix of taxes for all countriesnSuggest the first of these alternatives De

20、duct taxes on production etc from HDInIssues Taxes on production etc or taxes on products? Net of subsidies?16Direct taxes versus taxes on production and imports (cont)nIssues (cont) How much is attributable to actual final consumption? Some of the production taxes could be replaced by income taxes

21、on corporations rather than all on householdsnDifficult to estimate what part of taxes on production is attributable to actual final consumptionnNo reason to ignore subsidiesnTherefore, propose using taxes on products less subsidies on products as a rough approximationnTable 5 (adjusted ratios) and

22、Table 6 (differences)17Real net interest payments for householdsnAdjustment for the effect of inflation on interest rates and interest flowsnNeutral interestnReal interest = Nominal interest - neutral interestnOnly include real interest flows when deriving household saving and HDI, therefore need to

23、 Deduct neutral interest on assets Add neutral interest on liabilitiesnAssets used for adjustment should include assets held on households behalf by pension funds, life insurance corporations and mutual funds etc18Household durablesnHouseholds regard consumer durables as assetsnRental equivalence ap

24、proach could be used to derive alternative estimates in satellite accounts However, rental markets for long term use of consumer durables may not be well developed Therefore, if we assume no operating surplus is generated from consumer durables an approximate adjustment is to subtract expenditure on

25、 durables from, and add consumption of fixed capital on durables to, HFCE Consequently, household saving would be increased by net investment in consumer durables19Household durables (cont)nOECD and Eurostat are discussing proposals for additional data collection regarding household durables and dwe

26、llings COFC for household durables, Capital stock for dwellings and household durables, Capital gains/losses on dwellingsnRecommendation 5: Countries are encouraged to compile separate estimates of household final consumption expenditure, capital stock and consumption of fixed capital for consumer d

27、urables.20Capital gains and lossesnHave a significant impact on wealth and consumption of households but are not included in household income in SNA93nPotential versus realised capital gains Different impact on consumption than income from production or transfers Impact may be different for realised

28、 as opposed to potential capital gains Nominal or real capital gains?21Capital gains and losses (cont)nRecommendation 6: Rather than adjusting the household saving ratio for capital gains/losses directly, it is recommended that capital gains/losses be used as an additional explanatory variable when

29、analysing household consumption behaviour.22PensionsnDefined benefit schemes Problem of under or over fundingnUnfunded pension schemes Actual pensions do not match accruing liabilities for these schemesnSocial security versus private pension schemes Different institutional arrangements contribute to

30、 observed differences in household saving ratios 23PensionsnRecommendation 7: It is recommended that adjustments in relation to social security schemes should be undertaken as a special exercise and not combined with other adjustments to derive an alternative measure of the household saving ratio. T

31、he pensions EDG sponsored by the IMF provides an opportunity to resolve the problems caused by defined benefit schemes and unfunded pension schemes for public sector employees in the context of the forthcoming revision of SNA93. Anne Harrisons paper on the pensions EDG makes a valuable contribution

32、concerning this issue.24Unincorporated enterprisesnFor which countries are unincorporated enterprises that are treated as quasi-corporate quantitatively significant?nDo such countries compile estimates for compensation of employees for working proprietors in quasi-corporations or is the labour retur

33、n to these working proprietors included in operating surplus?nDo such countries have separate data on the level of withdrawals from quasi-corporations or do they simply assume that all of the entrepreneurial income of quasi-corporations is transferred to households in the current period? 25Financial

34、 accounts measurenChange in financial position (financial account) versus Net lending (capital account)nIf all of the difference is assumed to be caused by deficiencies in income flows then can derive the following alternative measure of the household saving ratio Table 7 gives these ratios, and Tab

35、le 8 shows the difference between these ratios and those in Table 2.nObviously the differences could be caused by deficiencies in any of the items in the income, capital or financial accounts26Additional measures for the household saving rationAn alternative measure or a series of alternative measur

36、es?nDo countries have a preference for whether a series of saving ratios should be compiled, each including an adjustment for one factor or whether a single alternative measure should be compiled that includes adjustments for all (or as many as possible) of the various factors simultaneously? 27Prof

37、it ratiosnCountry practicesnTypes of profit ratiosnDefinitions Gross or net? Numerator Denominator for rates of return Denominator for profit sharenInstitutional sector scope28Country practicesnProfit ratios are presented in many different ways by member countries United Kingdom Gross balance of pri

38、mary incomes for non-financial corporations as a share of gross national income Economic Trends article containing data for 34 countries for net operating surplus over net capital stock plus inventories for non-financial corporations United States 8 ratios; 4 rate of return measures and 4 profit sha

39、re measures Ratios relate to private non-financial corporations29Country practices (cont) United States (cont) Net operating surplus and net entrepreneurial income are used both before and after income tax as the numerator for each type of measure (Note: Different terminology is used by BEA) Net cap

40、ital stock plus inventories is used as the denominator for rate of return measures Net factor income less NOS for public corporations is used as the denominator for profit share measures Australia Gross operating surplus for financial and non-financial corporations divided by total factor income Fra

41、nce GOS/Gross value added at basic prices for all enterprises (corporate and quasi-corporate plus unincorporated)30Types of profit ratiosnRates of return Profit over capital stock Used for profitability studiesnProfit shares Profit over GDP, GNI or total factor income Used for analyses of returns to

42、 labour and capitalnProfit margin Profit over output Not recommended at the macro economy level31Definitions for rate of return and profit share measuresnGross or net Both numerator and denominator should be net of consumption of fixed capital Use gross measure if consumption of fixed capital estima

43、tes are deficientnNumerator (for both rates of return and profit shares) Net operating surplus Independent of the extent to which borrowed funds are used Entrepreneurial income After receipts of property income and payments of interest and rent on non-produced assets used by the business 32Definitio

44、ns for rate of return and profit share measures (cont)nDenominator for rate of return measures Net capital stock for produced assets Including inventories? Non-produced tangible assets? Non-produced intangible assets?nDenominator for profit share measures Net domestic product Net factor income Whole

45、 economy Institutional sector used for numerator33Institutional sector scopenNon-financial corporationsnFinancial corporationsnFinancial and non-financial corporationsnCorporations and unincorporated enterprises Ideally mixed income should be split into a return to the labour provided by working proprietors and a return to capitalnPrivate and public sub-sectors for corporations34Recommendations regarding profit ratiosnProfit margin type ratios using output as the denominator should not be compiled at the ma