WillChineseStockMarketsMirrortheBehaviouroftheNASDAQ(英文版)

1、Will Chinese Stock Markets Mirror the Behaviour of the NASDAQ?-Where is the solution?Christopher Poll Chairman,Greater China Consultancy Ltd.,3 QUESTIONS RAISED HOW TO DEFINE A “WELL REGULATED MARKET”? WHAT RELEVANCE A PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO? IF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS ARE A STABILISING FACTOR FOR THE STO

2、CK MARKET, WHY ARE DEVELOPED MARKETS SO VOLATILE?HOW TO DEFINE A “WELL REGULATED MARKET”?The Financial Markets are Dynamic Business is “Proactive” But Regulators are “Reactive” not “Proactive The System of Regulation and Enforcement can never be completely Flexible and Dynamic Importance of Fiduciar

3、y ResponsibilityFinancial Infrastructure MAIN FACTORS FOR FUNDSGovernmentFinancialPolicemenInstitutional ManagersCentred aroundPublicInvestors23GovernmentRegulators and Central BankFinancial Policemen are advisors to(Follow and abide by Rules & Regulations)InvestorsInstitutionalQuoted CompaniesAccou

4、ntants- Pensionson Stock MarketLawyers- Insurance Co.(life)and- Mutual FundsPrivatised IndustriesMerchant BanksPrivate InvestorPreviously NationalisedCommercial Banks- Direct- IndirectStock MarketPRIVATE SECTORLawyersAccountantsInvestmentBankersStockBrokersCommercialBanksConflict of Interest?Conflic

5、t of Interest Who is the client? Who are the Financial Policeman Responsible to? Can Regulation be Protect with Financial Policemen being Proactive?INVESTORSInstitutionalPrivatePensionsInsuranceMutual FundsInvestorsConfidence=InvestorsEducationConfidenceEducationInvestorsInvestorProtection/Confidenc

6、eTransparencyEducationInformation/ReportingAnalysisAccuracy of DataDisclosureTimelinessCompetetion = Accountability Easier and more effective enforcement. Increased efficiency reduces costs. Improved flexibility of the infrastructure to respond effectively and competitively.Efficient InfrastructureT

7、ransparencyAccountabilityLeads to:A Chinese Tailor Made Solution for theChinese Fund IndustryInvestorsbehaviourStock InvestorsFund InvestorsSecuritiesDealersBrokersSecuritiesInvestmentAdvisorsFundManagersSecuritiesExchangeOTCFuturesExchangeSEC/CSRCCBC/PBCWHAT RELEVANCE A PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO?Chinese

8、 QuotedStocks CorporateProfits?NASDAQCorporate Profits?Confidence$1995 - 2000C$IF CONFIDENCE IS LOWTHEN MONEY FLOW IS MINUTECONFIDENCE$IF CONFIDENCE IS HIGHTHEN MONEY FLOW IS LARGEWhat is the Criteria For Investing?1. What do you think is the most important influence on the stock market in China tod

9、ay? The historic balance sheets and profit and loss accounts of the quoted companies- 6 The future prospects for corporate earnings-10 Government policy-62 Govt. investigation into mal practices15 The overall economic growth of the Chinese economy-27 Chinas entry into the WTO-82. How do you as an in

10、vestor analyse the fair value of the companies you buy & sell? Bypriceearningsratio-35 Byrelationshiptonetassetvale-5 Bythelatestrumour-58 Bythebusinesssectorthecompanyisinvolvedin-21 Bymultipleofsalesrevenue-93. What do you think should be the average prospective price earnings ratio for non-techno

11、logy stocks? under15times-0 15to25times-18 above25-1104. What do you think should be the average prospective price earnings ratio? under15times-0 15to25times-1 25to50-16 over50-1115. How do you measure investment risk? Bymeasuringthevolatilityofthestock-31 Bymeasuringthevolatilityofthestockmarket-42

12、 Byestimatingtheaccuracyofdisclosedinformation-16 Byestimatingtheriskoffraud-17 Byanalysinghistoricreturns-13 Bycomparingwithandadjustingforariskfreemeasuresuchasadepositrate-8At what level do you think the Shanghai A share market will be on 31st December 2001? most think it will be above 2500 Today

13、 it is 2140At what level do you think the Shanghai B share market will be on 31st December 2001? mostthinkitwillbeabove200 Todayitis183IF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS ARE A STABILISING FACTOR FOR THE STOCK MARKET, WHY ARE DEVELOPED MARKETS SO VOLATILE?Factors Effecting Investment Time Horizons Confidence in

14、Long Term Trends Confidence in Information Disclosure Volatility of Markets Liquidity of Markets Profit Forecast Public Scrutiny of PerformanceEACM100:EqualWeighted(RebalancedAnnually)IndexofHedgeFundIndicesdescribedonPreviousSlideReturn and Risk Tradeoff: 1/1990-12/2000EACM 100Event DrivenRelative

15、ValueS&P/Lehman Port.Global MacroEquity Hedge Lehman BondS&P 5000.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%Annualized Standard DeviationAnnualized ReturnRisk and Return of Stock, Bond and Hedge Funds: 1/1990-12/2000100% EACM 10050% S&P 500 and 50% Leh. Bros. Bond100% Lehman Bond100% S&P 5000.00%2

16、.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%Portfolio Annualized Standard DeviationPortfolio Annualized ReturnChina versus Western Markets Limited sense of Accountability Little Understanding of Risk Chinese Business Philosophy Reluctance to Incentivise Executive Managers Entrepreneurs Underst