长江三角洲地区环境演变与人类社会响应研究

1、长江三角洲地区环境演变与人类社会响应研究        【中文摘要】在“全球变化研究”的国内外科学计划背景下,论文采用自然地理学、人文地理学、历史地理学、考古学等理论和方法,以长江三角洲地区为空间范围,尤其是上海市为核心区域,分别以新石器时代和明清时代为时间限度,以论文索引、资料、历史文献及长江三角洲历史遗存为对象,对比尼罗河三角洲,探讨这一时空框架内自然环境演变,尤其是天气变化影响下的人类社会的特征。重点分析了明清时代高分辨率的天气冷热旱涝状况及其对应的太阳黑子活动状况,以明确该区天气变化规律及人类社会发展与环境

2、之间的互动关系。进而分析该区天气灾难类型及灾难事件,以期能够“将今论古”,进一步探讨该地区人类社会进程和格式中的自然因素的要义。论文首先构建了空间框架长江三角洲及尼罗河三角洲,多方查阅文献资料并进行博物馆考察,分辨新石器时代以来两处人类社会与环境互动关系,对比研究大河三角洲环境背景下两地人类社会的发展演变及其异同。以为由于自然环境及其变化方式的不同,两地区人类在生存方式及精神文化经济社会上都有较大差异。在完成新石器时代以来两地对比的基础上,针对性的采用明清时代(1368-1911AD)544年时间为主要时间范围,通过明清时代544年的历史文献、史籍、史料记载的研读,参照前人的气象、天气、年代学

3、成果资料及定级标准,分析该区天气状况,主要是冷热、干湿等的频次及规律。在机制探讨方面,根据已有的1700-1911AD太阳黑子活动状况年表及厄尔尼诺出现年份表,探讨其与该区降水状况的对应关系,以为太阳黑子活动弱时旱涝灾难比太阳黑子活动强时严重;而在厄尔尼诺年份该区涝灾发生的频率是旱灾的两倍;同时,该区旱涝状况与太阳黑子活动及厄尔尼诺有很好的相关关系。鉴于目前公认的年代学成果,明清时期(1368-1911AD)长江三角洲地区处于小冰期(1320-1910AD),天气以严冷为主,期间有相应的波动。从1368-1911AD,论文以30年为分辨率作图得出该区明清时期有四次严冷极峰期,分别是1440-1

4、470,1650-1680,1800-1830,1860-1890,其中又以1650-1680时段的严冷最为严重,其时也极为干旱,以为天气异常状况诱发了明清的时代更迭。探讨明清时期该区人类社会对环境的响应,以为该时期人类活动对环境的改造作用已经很大,在历史积累的基础上该区逐渐成为经济文化中心之一。具体分析该区气象灾难状况,如冷冬、风暴潮、生物灾难、强对流天气等及其对该区人类社会的影响。探讨明末(崇祯)大旱对人类社会的影响及人类的响应。进而运用“将今论古”的方法,尝摸索讨“良渚文化衰亡之谜”,以为良渚是在长期天气异常洪水的影响下逐渐走向衰亡,而非一蹴而灭!论文是对长江三角洲地区环境演变及人类社会

5、响应的尝试研究。研究过程中很多文献资料记载的不全面及缺失使得论文的精度及分辨率不够高;同时,由于熟悉水平有限,引证材料也并非足够完全,更不能回避资料的不确定性,因而论文的熟悉并非定论;同样,大多数历史天气要素变化序列都是以现代观测资料为依据,采取“将今论古”的法则重建,然而由于现代观测资料究竟太短,即使重建的序列分辨率很高,也不能避免“古”、“今”法则不同而造成的偏差,这也意味着论文的相关结论还有待进一步完善和修正。');【Abstract】 With the planned scientific research background of "global changing

6、" at home and abroad, this * adopts methods and theories of physical geography, human geography, historical archival documents, historical geography, archaeology , mathematic geography, statistics, and the methods and results of other related subjects. It makes use of article index, data, histo

7、rical documents and historical cultural heritage in Yangtze Delta, takes Yangtze Delta as the space scope, contrasting to the Nile Delta, among which Shanghai region is the core research district. Respectively, it takes the Neolithic Age and Ming & Qing Dynasty as time scope. It discusses the ch

8、aracteristics of natural environment evolvement and human society response within this time and space scope. Particularly, it analyzes the cold, warm, drought and waterlogging condition of the climate with resolution ratio as high as 30years and the related sunspot activities, in order to analyze th

9、e rule of climate change and the interactive relationship between human society development and environmental evolvement. It is expected to "discussing the history with the condition of the present", that is, it distinguishes the inducement of the rule of climate change and the abnormal af

10、fairs of the climate, furtherly, it inquiries the significance of natural factors in the human soeciety progress and pattern.In order to realize the research targets above, it sets up the space frame firstly in this *, that's, Yangtze Delta, checking all-round document data and investigating the

11、 museum materials to distinguish the interactive relationship between environmental evolvement and huaman society in Yangtze Delta, contrasting to Nile Delta since the Neolithic Age. After contrasting study of resemblance and difference of the human society development in the two deltas with the env

12、ironment background of huge river delta, it concluded that people have different life styles and differences in spirit due to the difference of natural environment and its change form. Then it comes to Ming and Qing Dynasty, according to the records of 544 years during this period, it takes the fore

13、runners' weather data records and classification standard to analyze the frequency and rule of the related weather condition, such as cold, warm, drought, and water-logging etc. According to the existing sunspot activities data from 1700-1910, it discusses the corresponding relationship between

14、precipitation and solar activity. It concluded that the frequency of drought and waterlogging is higher during weak sunspot activity than strong sunspot activity. While in years when El-Nino takes place, the frequency of waterlogging is twice of that of drought. As it's known that Ming and Qing

15、Dynasty (1368-1911 AD) are contained in the Little Ice Age (1320-1910 AD), during which the climate condition is mainly chill with continuous fluctuation. Taking 30 years as resolution, there are four cold peak periods, which respectively is 1440-1470, 1650-1680, 1800-1830, and 1860-1890, among whic

16、h the cold period of 1650-1680 is most rigorous, and it is also extremely dry. This abnormal cliamte condition directly induced the succession of Ming and Qing Dynasty. After analyzing detailed the influence to human society and response of human of the great drought affair in late Ming Dynasty, it

17、discussed the decay riddle of "Liangzhu Civilization" according to the rule of "discussing the history with the condition of present", and considered that the long period of abnormal climate condition, actually, flood, is the gradual inducement of the decay of Liangzhu Civilizati

18、on, which is not disappear suddenly.It's a trial to study the relationship between evironmental evolvement and human society response in the Yangtze Delta. It's expected to provide more usable information for this kind of study in this region. The accuracy and resolution of this study is discounted because of the imperfection and lacking of cultural heritage data in the studying p