大气污染模型.

1、h环境系统模si<2004.5.19'Global Environmental Change is the capstone issue for our generation and our children's gen eratio n. The issues are profound? - James Mahoney, Director US Climate Change Science Programmeer所采用模型必须提供对地球系统尽可能完整、翔实的表述模型中必须包罗地球系统内各组分间的相互作用、过程 转化等；/模型所模拟的尺度巨大（时间、空间）；模型的建立是基

2、于对地球系统中主要圈层（水圈、大气 圈等）的作用机制的充分认识与理解；模型一非线性；预测结果?OCEAH C三 SULPHUrtl CArlSOrJ地球系统模型的发展CHEMISTRYATMOSPH1999 ATMOSPHERE I ANDOCHA叫 iCE SULPHUR| CArlBOd1997ATMOSPHERELANDOCEAN JCE SULPHUR1992ATMOSPHERE UV'JD OOEAI1 CEATMOSPHERE LZlJD OOEAI11985ATMOSPHERE L/MJD1960sATMOSPHERE地球系统模型的发展趋势一高分辨率的模型低分辨率模型高分

3、辨率模型若采用低分辨率的模型，一些过程则不能被很好地模拟。 例：落基山脉阻挡了大气环流并是造成北大西洋风暴路径的重要因素。地球系统模型的发展趋势一高分辨率的模型天气系统_降水降水过程具有高度mm线片生持征，降水的空间 牙口日寸眉1尺度是地球系统中的关键性.因素，同时降 水的分布与強度对区域的洪涝灾害等影响很大。高分辨率的地球系统模型量化目前的地球系统一理解地球的历史、预测地球的未来全的讪地球系统模型的建立依赖于先 进的观测系统地球观测卫星Earth Observation Satellite(EOS)环境观测卫星 En visat华东地区污染的卫星照片 Smoke and haze from

4、many fires Sediment- iade n water from theYangtse River通过微波测量的降水情况Monthly Rainfall (mm/day)0 10 >201997年印度尼西亚大火产生的烟雾NV33OHaqsiaaoiv siavdix-i3H3HdSOJAIlV竿蔚蔚倉AHlSII5i?<H3 OiH：4HdS<>WJ；IHSIlldSOIUNV7I3OAMJ-SIIV：1H3 -039 oraH/IH<ISOIfl“21SW3 丄SASNOI1V1IJNIS viva/isaoiAi nvNoioaSHSHdSOAHO

5、$活【|忻马必的衣1!祖右时（诒/1!帀） onpuqg丄 |Oiuo。pug buiuueid uo!）eiu0iu9|diu| lueisXs qpE0 e屮 jo siueuodmoo juejeip ueeMjaq uoijeiujoiui sa6uei|oxa qoiqM jQ|dnoo 8屮 si lapoiu ei|j jo qjoo eqiCUMATE FORCING BY AIR POLLUTANTSGLOBAL RADIATIVE FORCING OF CLIMATE, 1750-present IPCC, 2001AerosolsHalocarbonsStratosphe

6、ric ozoneI ropospheric ozone3 2 1 o -2 6UEeAA?=000 (2OE出 enbs s sueAA) 6UOJ2aAQspe 工Black carbon from fossil fuel bumi ng 哥 Organic carbon | Sulphate ；, fuel burningMineralDustTBiomass burni ngAviation-induced人Contrails CirrusAerosolindi ectef ectLand -use(albedo)onlyHigh Medium Medium Low VeryVeryV

7、ery VeryVeryVeryVery VeryLowLowLow LowLowLowLow LowSOURCES OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONETropopause (8-18 km)Stratospheric ozoneSTRATOSPHERETROPOSPHEREComplex non-linear chemistryLightningN唱朋F OZonek)Hy：roxyl (OH)0小physicsOcean chemistryFires Biosphere Human activity13016“3060April 21April 191g f AF1TA、April

8、 23 、jJNASA Langley Kesearch Center / Atniospheric Sciences Divisionr；.三曰三Mixing Ratio (ppbv)S105120133TRANSPACIFIC TRANSPORT OF ASIAN DUSTApril 1998 eventLML.LARGE-SCALE POLLUTION IN THE TROPICS/ BIOMASS BURNING/90 NIbUWzuwSix10O&BLACK CARBON： A MAJOR “GREENHOUSE” AEROSOLDOMESTIC COAL BURNINGBC

9、 Emission (gC/m2) 199C DIESELBIOMASS BURNINGbUW0 010 040 07Growth of Asian emissions over next decades willincrease role of background for ozone air quality in U.S.109 atoms N cm 2 s 'Aerosol and chemical processesA PRIORI EMISSIONS (from process model)OBSERVZVTIONS surface satellite aircraftINV

10、ERSE MODELOPTIMIZED EMISSIONSWhat Types of Model?模型的科类ADMS (3. Urban)AirOIIIS(如ISC. C ALINE )FUTURE MONITORING OF EMISSIONSBY INVERSE MODELING OF ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONSAssimilated meteorological data3-D CHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODEL Box model - simple, poor resolution 箱模型简单且獅率低 Gaussian type model - si

11、mple or advanced e.g. ADMS. ISC. CALINE 高斯模型单或高级的Simpleffi单的 ISC (point sources)CALINE itraflic)Qdmnced高级的Particle models calculates trajectories oflarge number of particles粒子模型-需要更多的删机资滾NAME (Met Office)Complex models e.q. solution ot dittusion equation,compulalional fluid dynamicsUAM (urban airshe

12、d modeh复杂模型-研究若使用（如八M）Gaussian models-simple and advanced (1) 简单的和复杂的高斯模型(1) A DM SSim pie 箇单勢 Uses Pasquill Gifford classes to describe boundar> layer用Pasquill Gifiord分奏怯借址边界 层 Uses Gaussian distribution in all inel cundilions缽有SfcfKF均位用刪>布 Simple model jng of hills and huildings山址利建氛4的ffMMK战

13、Gaussian modeksimple and advanced (2) rLfl单的和复杂的离斯模型(2)Hills should affect the ind Held and the turbulence field.山地"肩风场和畑l场ADMS iniHlels tlic physicsADMSM的物理第椅lapproach noeffect on flow field传兢方法没有 M 地形对1厲的形英国空气质量模型UPWINDBackground Atlantic Air co2 ch4 n2o coDOWNLAYERsampling at 30 m, with prof

14、iles every 100 km along trajectory367 1865 312.5 ppb105 ppbA BOUNDARY LAYERENHANCEMENTco ch410-100 20-150PPb ppbREQUIRES c early defined boundary layer no deep convection no frontal activity along trajectory steady boundary layer winds (3-15 msd)Measurement platform: new FA AM BAe-146Measured specie

15、s Gases:/ f Long-lived: CO2, CO, N2O, CH4 Reactive inorganic: SO2, NO, NO2, O3 nh3, hno3 Organic: VOCs Mercury Aerosol: Non-refractory sub-micron NH4+, NO3_, SO42', orga nics Heavy metalsComponents of the boundary layer budget模型种类1. FRAME (Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-species Exchange) mode

16、l2. NAME (Nuclear Accident Model)3. Box model of MCMModel " FRAME / K /统计的拉格朗日多层扩散模型“优点：表面/大气交换模型、垂直扩散 弱点：线性、没有考虑有机化学过程和侧风扩散 /FRAME Model Model used for NH3, SO2, NOX (ineluding /chemistry with HNO3, HClf associated aerosols and PAN)7/ Non-chemistry version for N2O, CH4, CO2 and Heavy Metals Ru

17、ns on 132km x 244km UK grid at 5km resoluti onCH4 and N2O modellingEnhancement of CH4 due to UK emissionsEnhancement of N2O due to UK emissionspredicted with FRAME under W wind at 8.6 m s*1. predicted with FRAME under W wind at 8.6 m s 1重金属模拟的金属包括As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb,Se, V 禾口 ZrK/干沉降依赖于颗粒的尺寸和地形、地貌

18、 的种类。湿沉降依赖于降水等。Heavy MetalsPb depositionAs depositionModel 右 NAME拉格朗日扩散模型考虑化学变化Model 3: Box modelBox model of Master Chemical Mechanism to simulate photochemistry O3的产生模拟简化的水平对流模型的选择1. Simulate non-reactive gases (CO, CO2, CH4, N2O) with FRAME2. Simulate non-reactive gases with NAME3. Simulate inorg

19、anic chemistry withFRAME /4. Simulate organic chemistry with boxmodel少城市中光化学烟雾的模型光化学烟雾9由光化学反应产生的烟雾排入大气的NOx和碳氢化合物等+次污染物，经过 阳光照射，各种污染物之间发生相互反应，生成。3、 / 醛类、过氧乙酰硝酸酯、过氧苯酰硝酸酯等二次污 染物，一次和二次污染物在大气中形成一种有刺激 性的、浅蓝色的混合烟雾。臭氧（。3）、过氧乙酰硝酸酯（PAN）、过氧苯酰 硝酸酯（PBN）和其他能使碘化钾的碘离子氧化的 痕量物质，都称为光化学氧化剂；它们都是光化学 烟雾的组成物。模型一box modelRa

20、te constant k (ppm")0.339 2.08xl053. O3+NO一 NO2+O22.52x10Basic EquationsBox model equation(LWZ)dq = WLQdt IuWZqdt(1)血皐+为丄Q生一组dt Z L L Z Z=££+7_2£_l£ZuZ w Z U二(Q-QQ +刁-弩土uZZ u_ /q = pQZ(4)uZChemical Reaction SubmodelAtmospheric photochemical reactions for simulation model:Step4. O3+2NO22HNO3+O25. NO+NO22HNO26. HNO2+ hy OH- +NO7. CO+OH -Q CO2+HO2-8. HO2 +NO* HNO2+O29. HC+O _> aRO2-10 HC+O3 pRO2 + y RCHO11. HC+OH 匕 5RO2- + eRCHO12. RO2 +NO- NO：+ 0 OH-13 RO2 +NCh < PAN2.06 xlO1 22.0x101.5 xlO22.0 xlO314. HO2 +NUN