房地产股票vs50ETFppt课件

1、房地产股票vs.50ETF袁 扬组长yyang986hotmail孙 炬史 锴目的v时间：2019年12月最后一个买卖日v备选投资产品：v万科A (000002)v银基开展 (000511)v浙江广厦 (600052)v50ETF (510050)v基于可观测的公开信息，计算各投资产品主要的财务目的v比较牛市时期，房地产股票与50ETF的投资收益v在备选的投资产品中选出最正确的投资组合2019年下半年各投资产品的表现公开信息万科万科A银基发展银基发展浙江广厦浙江广厦50ETF总资产（万元）总资产（万元）42,245,109,714 2,776,937,467 5,782,179,896 395

2、,406.27 EPS(2019.12.29)0.860.213亏损亏损0.49742019.12平均价格平均价格8.862.7213.451.579Book Value(2019.9.30)2.5063.582.461.7630P/E Ratio10.312.77n/a3.174P/B Ratio3.530.761.400.89本表数据基于在2019年12月可获得的公开信息估值Theoretical Pi = (P/E)industry * Ei沪深房地产股整体市盈率达沪深房地产股整体市盈率达50剔除亏损和市盈率超越剔除亏损和市盈率超越200的企业，的企业，平均市净率为平均市净率为3.2 。

3、ETF的平均市盈率是的平均市盈率是5倍。倍。万科万科A银基发展银基发展浙江广厦浙江广厦50ETFEPS(2019.12.29)0.860.213亏损亏损0.4974Book Value(2019.9.30)2.5063.582.461.7630Real price10.1932.6614.0731.788Theoretical price4310.657.822.487Underpriced range32.807.9893.7470.699Underpriced ratio-76.29%-75.01%-47.9%-28.1%投资战略与组合选择Pick-upsKick-outsP/B Stra

4、tegy银基发展浙江广厦万科A50ETFSize Strategy银基发展50ETF万科A浙江广厦Industrial P/E ratiovaluation strategy银基发展万科A浙江广厦50ETF如今股市能否过热？v中国中国GDP从从2000年起至年起至2030年依然可以坚持较高的增长率林毅夫年依然可以坚持较高的增长率林毅夫v从长期看，股指增长率和从长期看，股指增长率和GDP增长率二者是正相关的。增长率二者是正相关的。v上证指数上证指数2019年年12月月31日是日是2019年年12月月29日的日的2.28倍。倍。v同期，同期，2019年年GDP是是2019年年GDP的的2.399倍

5、。倍。v2019年起中国年起中国GDP年平均增长率假设为年平均增长率假设为9%。v2030年中国年中国GDP将是如今的约将是如今的约9.399倍。倍。1+0.0926 =9.399倍倍v2030年上证指数估计为年上证指数估计为 1492.72*9.399=14030点点注：2019年-2019年人民币汇率稳地，2019年和2019年的中国股市都处于相对温暖的时期Animal Spirit 成分相对较少)。如今股市能否过热？H-P Trend 分析v股市实现预期的过程：先加速上升，然后再缓慢上升或高位震荡直到下一次加速上升。v如今股市正处于加速实现预期的过程中趋势线的斜率较大v黑线是与波浪实际(

6、上升五波，下跌三波)吻合的。如今是上升的阶段的五波中的第三波，也是最长的一个上升波。v此图运用的是月度数据。199219941996199820002002200420062345678The Log Price and the Trend Serials of ShangHai IndicesHPtrendy牛市选择Beta值大的股票买Beta大的股票股神如是说v他能否赞同我的投资战略?v我的真实持股v银基开展v50ETFv其他股票v春节后持有浙江广厦(ST广厦)v要用2019年上半年的数听说话各投资产品2019年上半年表现 时间时间 收盘收盘市场收益市场收益每周五每周五7 7天加权平均利率

7、天加权平均利率( (非年化非年化) )市场超额收益市场超额收益 2019/12/292675.47 2019/01/052641.33-1.28%0.000293417 -1.31% 2019/01/122668.111.01%0.000270667 0.99% 2019/01/192832.216.15%0.000300417 6.12% 2019/01/262882.561.78%0.000345528 1.74% 2019/02/022673.21-7.26%0.000386361 -7.30% 2019/02/092730.392.14%0.000814333 2.06% 2019/0

8、2/162998.479.82%0.000643611 9.75% 2019/03/022831.53-5.57%0.000326667 -5.60% 2019/03/092937.913.76%0.000288556 3.73% 2019/03/162930.48-0.25%0.000293417 -0.28% 2019/03/233074.294.91%0.000360694 4.87% 2019/03/303183.983.57%0.000381306 3.53% 2019/04/063323.584.38%0.000445550 4.34% 2019/04/133518.275.86%

9、0.000482611 5.81% 2019/04/203584.21.87%0.000817639 1.79% 2019/04/273759.874.90%0.000932167 4.81% 2019/04/303841.272.16%0.000932167 2.07% 2019/05/114021.684.70%0.000584111 4.64% 2019/05/184030.260.21%0.000498750 0.16% 2019/05/254179.783.71%0.000455583 3.66% 2019/06/014000.74-4.28%0.000543667 -4.34% 2

10、019/06/083913.14-2.19%0.000482806 -2.24% 时间时间万科万科A A（000002000002）周收益周收益无风险利率：每周五无风险利率：每周五7 7天加权平均利率（非年化）天加权平均利率（非年化）万科万科A A超额收益超额收益市场超额收益市场超额收益2019-12-2910.193 2019/01/059.8-3.86%0.000293417-3.88%-1.31% 2019/01/1210.6338.50%0.0002706678.47%0.99% 2019/01/1911.366.84%0.0003004176.81%6.12% 2019/01/261

11、2.2878.16%0.0003455288.13%1.74% 2019/02/029.513-22.58%0.000386361-22.62%-7.30% 2019/02/099.9274.35%0.0008143334.27%2.06% 2019/02/161110.81%0.00064361110.74%9.75% 2019/03/029.493-13.70%0.000326667-13.73%-5.60% 2019/03/0910.38.50%0.0002885568.47%3.73% 2019/03/1610.51.94%0.0002934171.91%-0.28% 2019/03/

12、2310.722.10%0.0003606942.06%4.87% 2019/03/3010.962.24%0.0003813062.20%3.53% 2019/04/0611.5135.05%0.000445555.00%4.34% 2019/04/1312.3277.07%0.0004826117.02%5.81% 2019/04/2011.853-3.85%0.000817639-3.93%1.79% 2019/04/2711.8670.12%0.0009321670.02%4.81% 2019/04/3011.9530.72%0.0009321670.63%2.07% 2019/05/

13、1114.82724.04%0.00058411123.99%4.64% 2019/05/1816.611.96%0.0004987511.91%0.16% 2019/05/2518.3210.36%0.00045558310.32%3.66% 2019/06/0118.2-0.66%0.000543667-0.71%-4.34% 2019/06/07194.40%0.0004828064.35%-2.24%万科A证券特征线 时间时间银基发展银基发展周收益周收益无风险利率：每周五无风险利率：每周五7 7天加权平均利率（非年化）天加权平均利率（非年化）银基发展超额收益银基发展超额收益市场超额收益

14、市场超额收益2019-12-292.661 2019/01/042.7673.98%0.0002934173.95%-1.31% 2019/01/122.7670.00%0.000270667-0.03%0.99% 2019/01/192.8834.19%0.0003004174.16%6.12% 2019/01/263.43919.29%0.00034552819.25%1.74% 2019/02/023.039-11.63%0.000386361-11.67%-7.30% 2019/02/093.93329.42%0.00081433329.34%2.06% 2019/02/164.961

15、26.14%0.00064361126.07%9.75% 2019/03/025.0060.91%0.0003266670.87%-5.60% 2019/03/095.52810.43%0.00028855610.40%3.73% 2019/03/165.8836.42%0.0002934176.39%-0.28% 2019/03/236.1394.35%0.0003606944.32%4.87% 2019/03/306.2111.17%0.0003813061.13%3.53% 2019/04/066.87810.74%0.0004455510.69%4.34% 2019/04/137.55

16、9.77%0.0004826119.72%5.81% 2019/04/209.02819.58%0.00081763919.49%1.79% 2019/04/2710.111.87%0.00093216711.78%4.81% 2019/04/309.89-2.08%0.000932167-2.17%2.07% 2019/05/1110.344.55%0.0005841114.49%4.64% 2019/05/1811.4410.64%0.0004987510.59%0.16% 2019/05/2513.1214.69%0.00045558314.64%3.66% 2019/06/0111.5

17、-12.35%0.000543667-12.40%-4.34% 2019/06/0710.44-9.22%0.000482806-9.27%-2.24%银基开展证券特征线 时间时间STST广厦广厦周收益周收益无风险利率：每周五无风险利率：每周五7 7天加权平均利率（非年化）天加权平均利率（非年化）STST广厦超额收益广厦超额收益市场超额收益市场超额收益2019-12-294.073 2019/01/054.3426.60%0.0002934176.58%-1.31% 2019/01/125.33622.89%0.00027066722.87%0.99% 2019/01/195.269-1.26

18、%0.000300417-1.29%6.12% 2019/01/265.2910.42%0.0003455280.38%1.74% 2019/02/024.88-7.77%0.000386361-7.81%-7.30% 2019/02/095.64315.64%0.00081433315.55%2.06% 2019/02/166.2039.92%0.0006436119.86%9.75% 2019/03/026.7568.92%0.0003266678.88%-5.60% 2019/04/1310.6757.93%0.00048261157.89%5.81% 2019/04/2011.810.

19、59%0.00081763910.51%1.79% 2019/04/2711.29-4.32%0.000932167-4.42%4.81% 2019/04/3011.310.18%0.0009321670.08%2.07% 2019/05/1112.026.28%0.0005841116.22%4.64% 2019/05/1813.9415.97%0.0004987515.92%0.16% 2019/05/2516.0415.06%0.00045558315.02%3.66% 2019/06/0115.75-1.81%0.000543667-1.86%-4.34% 2019/06/0715.1

20、5-3.81%0.000482806-3.86%-2.24%ST广厦证券特征线 时间时间50ETF50ETF周收益周收益无风险利率：每周五无风险利率：每周五7 7天加权平均利率（非年化）天加权平均利率（非年化）50ETF50ETF超额收益超额收益市场超额收益市场超额收益2019-12-2910.193 2019/01/059.8-3.86%0.000293417-3.88%-1.31% 2019/01/1210.6338.50%0.0002706678.47%0.99% 2019/01/1911.366.84%0.0003004176.81%6.12% 2019/01/2612.2878.16

21、%0.0003455288.13%1.74% 2019/02/029.513-22.58%0.000386361-22.62%-7.30% 2019/02/099.9274.35%0.0008143334.27%2.06% 2019/02/161110.81%0.00064361110.74%9.75% 2019/03/029.493-13.70%0.000326667-13.73%-5.60% 2019/03/0910.38.50%0.0002885568.47%3.73% 2019/03/1610.51.94%0.0002934171.91%-0.28% 2019/03/2310.722.

22、10%0.0003606942.06%4.87% 2019/03/3010.962.24%0.0003813062.20%3.53% 2019/04/0611.5135.05%0.000445555.00%4.34% 2019/04/1312.3277.07%0.0004826117.02%5.81% 2019/04/2011.853-3.85%0.000817639-3.93%1.79% 2019/04/2711.8670.12%0.0009321670.02%4.81% 2019/04/3011.9530.72%0.0009321670.63%2.07% 2019/05/1114.82724.04%0.00058411123.99%4.64% 2019/05/1816.611.96%0.0004987511.91%0.16% 2019/05/2518.3210.36%0.00045558310.32%3.66