汽车中信证券车闻天下第52期汽车行业并购重组专题之二一汽集团整体上市

1、2012 3 19 ggg 52 乬üü 乬 010 60838203lcbS1010510120010010 60836703chenjb010 60838704xuyb S1010510120041催010 60838822gsS1010512020002 2012 催2011-2015 2015 10 90%2011 10 87%乬2 14 000800.SZ 8.63 53.03%乒 噝 52 1125 567899101乱12 2011 9 23343546576879810911IPO 101211 g 52 122435455667778798108 噝 52

2、 2007 30 乍乱 乱乱 2004 19.91% 2011 14.04%21.40%16.50% 1 乱 亢 A 600104.SH600741亢亢佭0489.HK A 亢600006.SH亢600081.SH H A A 000625.SZ A 000800.SZ000927.SZ600742.SH002232.SZ2012 3 19 1g 52 1953 1956 1958 亢催 4 2 2011 9 1 -60.00%20.00% 50.00% 53.03%偀 47.73% 49.00%偀偀100.00%100.00%100.00%50.00%20.14% 48.67%50.00%

3、2012 3 19 2g 52 50.00% 48.15%42.00%40.00% 48.15%30.43% 20% 30% 3 2011 260 +1.7% 2010144 +53.5% 30% 2010 1725 4% 30025026040%30%20%10%0%10%2562004 20052006 2007 20082009 20102011 2012 3 19 3g 52 22008 2009 2010 16,434,28820,650,22629,401,552668,1021,586,4322,489,576%18.74%32.24%35.70%375,384937,1091,

4、438,7582008 12 31 2009 12 31 2010 12 31 10,530,16713,117,86617,254,9796,965,7578,196,57210,280,567 乱3,564,4104,921,2946,974,412 %66.15%62.48%59.58% 唤 偀 5 2012 3 19 4g 52 1991 60%40% A4L A6LQ5CC催 108 2011 103 +19%乘 300 6 %120100806040200.40.310334.1%87 30.0%33.6%675046.0%0.2350.101%200620072008200920

5、102011 3 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 4,774,0876,405,9517,335,7139,315,84813,145,020345,318461,369498,953669,180869,979/138,252138,847147,022139,213151,096 4 2011 Q5SUV37.98-56.7758,632 A6LC 35.50-69.99111,806 A4LB 27.28-46.4587,262 CCB 25.38-30.0836,575B 19.38-33.4887,365A 13.28-18.48128,325催 A6A 11.88

6、-23.58100,020A 10.78-14.68207,041A 7.58-9.88217,861 2012 3 19 8.195g 52 40% 10% 20% 30% 50% 50% 42 3 1 RAV4 5VIOS 偄A 2002 10 12 COROLLA EX A 2004 2 CROWN C 2005 3 REIZ B 2005 10 30 COROLLA A 2007 5 RAV4SUV2009 3 COASTER 2000 12 3 LAND CRUISER PRADO SUV2003 9 LAND CRUISER 200 SUV2007 12 1 PRIUS B 200

7、5 12 2011 53 +4.6% 50 +3.6%乘 10% 7 %5360504030201035.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%29.5%5128.8%423728.2%22.0%200620072008200920102011 2010 687 +29% 46 +37.7%2012 3 19 14214.6%6g 52 62007 2008 2009 2010 4,080,0255,129,6375,326,1346,868,499207,081287,649334,932461,153269,092365,723381,949482,516/

8、151,622140,260139,446142,348/7,6967,8658,7699,5575.08%5.61%6.29%6.71% 000800.SZ偀 24 20 2011 24 -11% 327 -12.4% 2.2 -88.3%乘 8 %273025201510580.0%60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%20.0%2457%49%1243%1986200620072008200920102011 72011 B 17.68-23.9831,018偀 6B 17.08-19.9891,358偀 8MPV21.98-24.986,168B70B 13.18-18.8827,14

9、0B50A 9.38-12.5885,676 82006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1,118,8021,361,7512,024,5462,774,4503,729,5903,265,26727,65355,287108,749162,903186,00821,69256,34080,496119,812188,141270,944241,362/198,580169,170168,977147,467137,652135,285/4,0185,7888,2528,2266,4808992.02%3.42%4.88%5.58%4.71%0.66% 2012 3 19

10、11%44%7g 52 N5 35 2011 25 +1.1%乱1997 2002 6 14 50.98% 9 %3025201510525%20%15%10%5%0%5%10%20.1%2525.0%20181821200620072008200920102011 9 2011 A0 6.38-6.38155A0 6.68-6.782,727A0 5.38-6.8826,504 V2A0 4.69-5.5927,127A00 3.68-4.38196,522 102006 2007 2008 2009 2010 866,266780,301727,953856,728989,12423,99

11、024,69710,00417,57329,96846,99356,22683,21494,907128,904196,817180,280176,638212,222250,360/44,01443,28341,21240,36939,508/-1,169-1,749-4,145-3,644-3,952-2.66%-4.04%-10.06%-9.03%-10.00% 2012 3 19 2.0%8.4%1.1%188g 52 2007 30 2010 6 2011 5 乍2011 6 乍2011 6 乬2011 6 2011 6 10 2011 7 2011 7 2011 12 2012 2

12、 2012 3 19 9g 52 A 1IPO 2 1 IPO A IPO BA 佪B 亢 B 亢 B 20% B 乬亢 IPO 乘亢 B 1 20% 2 A 3 11IPO 2 2006 G 2011 2012 3 19 10g 52 IPO IPO 亢 乬 G 12 2012 3 19 11 Analyst Certificationi ii The analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report containedherein hereby certify t

13、hat: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect theal views of each such analystabout the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. 乏 乚 催催/() (1) 乒(2) 催/ 催 2012 1. 6 6 300 2. 6 300 偀48 100125 1568 22 2001228 518048佭 1 26 Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S. -This report has been pr