上海乳业市场分析（共30页）.ppt

1、1Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 Shanghai Dairy MarketIntroduction上海乳业市场介绍上海乳业市场介绍市场市场: 上海上海品类品类: 白奶白奶, 风味奶风味奶, 酸奶酸奶,酸奶饮料酸奶饮料 期间期间: 2Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 城市档案城市档案 (2001年数据年数据)City ProfileYear 2001面积(平方公里) Square人口(百万) Population常住人口 Permanent Resident -非农业人口 Urban -农业人口 Rural暂住人口 Temporar

2、y Resident国内生产总值(10亿人民币) GDP(1billion RMB)人均国内生产总值(人民币:元) GDP/capita人均可支配收入(人民币:元) Per capita disposable income人均消费支出(人民币:元) Per capita consumption expenditure社会零售总额(10亿人民币) Total social retailing (1billion RMB)北京北京BJ13,69925,30011,578N/A上海上海SH6340N/AN/AN/AN/A27,18611,7188,868(Source: http:/)3Source

3、: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 总人口总人口: 1,261百万百万 Total:1,261mio资料来源: 2001中国人口统计年鉴,第5次人口普查, 2002 IMD世界竞争力年鉴, 中国利乐分析2001 China Population Statistics Yearbook,5th population census statistics, 2002 IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, TP China analysis5大类中国消费群大类中国消费群China Consumer Segmentation高收入消费群高收入消费群: A

4、dvanced年可支配收入为年可支配收入为15000元人民币元人民币1900万万Per capita disposable income 2%中高收入消费群中高收入消费群: Upper Value 年可支配收入年可支配收入10000-15000元元 7500万万 6%门槛内消费群门槛内消费群: Emerging 年可支配收入年可支配收入2000-5000元元 213 00万万17%门槛外消费群门槛外消费群: Unreachable 年可支配收入年可支配收入2000元元 76900万万61%15%中低收入消费群中低收入消费群: Lower Value 年可支配收入年可支配收入5000-10000

5、元元 19000万万4Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 上海：上海：中、高收入消费者人数总计为中、高收入消费者人数总计为670万万Source: 2002 Statistic Yearbook of China & TP China Analysis By mio peopleXinjiangQinghaiGansuInner MongoliaNingxiaSichuanYunnanGuangxiGuizhouHainanHunanJiangxiFujianZhejiangHubeiShaanxiShanxiLiaoningJilinHeilongjian

6、gShandongJiangsuAnhuiHenanTibetBeijingShanghaiTianjinGuangdongHebeiChongqing2-4 mio)2 mio 5-7 mio (19%) 上海上海:北京北京:广州广州:5Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 上海液态乳制品市场总揽上海液态乳制品市场总揽Overall Liquid Dairy Market, Shanghai6Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 与与2002年同期相比，总量迅速增加，并主要来自酸奶和酸年同期相比，总量迅速增加，并主要来自酸奶和酸奶饮料奶饮料

7、Compare to 02 same period, total volume have a slight increase, mainly by yogurt1103131107231160181159.116131106810337125061471107992902000040000600008000010000012000014000001 8-1302 1-603 1-6酸奶酸奶饮饮料料酸奶酸奶风风味味奶奶白奶白奶123,298131,066+6%122,852+0.3%* For 2001 data, only liquid milk(Incl. White milk &

8、flavor milk) data available.Shanghai7Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 销售额的增长低于销量增长，但酸奶仍是销售额的增长低于销量增长，但酸奶仍是2003年上半年增年上半年增长的推动力长的推动力Value growth is slower than volume growth,but yogurt still drives the growth in first half year of 20036857078.211.61029110911886900100200300400500600700800900100001 8-130

9、2 1-603 1-6酸奶酸奶饮饮料料酸奶酸奶风风味味奶奶白奶白奶+5.4%803* For 2001 data, only liquid milk(Incl. White milk & flavor milk) data available.Shanghai-1.3%8Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 50.6%49.4%35.1%2.5%2.5%2.3%25.6%27.1%0.10%0.1%0.1%2.5%2.1%2.5%2.8%2.1%4.2%36.9%36.7%6.3%4.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%01

10、7-1202 1-603 1-6玻玻璃璃瓶瓶塑料塑料瓶瓶塑料杯塑料杯利利乐砖乐砖屋屋顶包顶包利利乐枕乐枕铁罐铁罐其其它它利乐枕的快速增长使得原先的市场主要包装产品如利乐枕的快速增长使得原先的市场主要包装产品如玻璃瓶和屋顶包正在失去市场份额玻璃瓶和屋顶包正在失去市场份额62165.560938.146013.83111.63059.23041.03305.25450.845117.145437.833615.44856.37823.935565.83109.32633.23454.32555.202000040000600008000010000012000014000001 1-602 1-6

11、03 1-6123,298131,066+6%122,852+0.3%Shanghai9Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 47.5%47.5%34.5%3.2%3.1%3.1%26.3%0.6%0.4%2.1%24.9%4.5%4.0%4.9%4.2%2.2%3.2%37.0%36.5%3.4%5.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%01 8-1302 1-603 1-6玻玻璃璃瓶瓶塑料塑料瓶瓶塑料杯塑料杯利利乐砖乐砖屋屋顶包顶包塑料袋塑料袋利利乐枕乐枕销售额的变化滞后于销量的变化销售额的变化滞后于销量的变化Value chang

12、e lags volume change382.0376.8226.137.734.9297289.817.8208.339.231.525.717.645.527.7010020030040050060070080090001 8-1302 1-603 1-6+5.4%Shanghai-1.3%White Milk 白奶白奶Yogurt 酸奶酸奶Flavor Milk 风味奶风味奶11Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 52.3%36.4%0.4%3.0%4.3%1.7%38.2%25.0%7.0%30.6%0%10%

13、20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%02 1-603 1-6玻玻璃璃瓶瓶利利乐砖乐砖屋屋顶包顶包塑料塑料瓶瓶利利乐枕乐枕利乐枕快速增长，并成为玻璃瓶的最大挑战者利乐枕快速增长，并成为玻璃瓶的最大挑战者TFA growing fast & become a big threat to RGB57885.342286.94231528953.6416.13460.97797.635499.01893.04985.702000040000600008000010000012000014000002 1-603 1-6110,723116,018+5%Shanghai12S

14、ource: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 Overall Market玻玻璃璃瓶瓶屋屋顶包顶包利利乐枕乐枕利利乐砖乐砖市市场容量场容量02 1-6110,72357,88542,3157,7981,893(千升千升)03 1-6116,01842,28728,95435,4994,986产品分销产品分销02 1-692.10%40.60%68.90%29.90%17.90%(%)03 1-694.90%35.20%62.20%61.50%25.10%购买频率购买频率02 1-2.82(No. of purchase)03 1-4.52

15、.2每次购买量每次购买量02 1-31.7(升升)03 1-64.18.424.12.9家庭家庭每次购买量每次购买量02 1-638.745.8(升升)03 1-639.138.514.918.56.4平均价格平均价格02 1-5.87.1(RMB/升升)03 1-5.96.3白奶的主要包装形式白奶的主要包装形式Shanghai13Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 品牌品牌1是市场领导品牌，其主要产品是市场领导品牌，其主要产品为玻璃瓶和屋顶包，同时面临品牌为玻璃瓶和屋顶包，同时面临品牌

16、2利乐枕的强烈竞争利乐枕的强烈竞争63.8%60.5%12.1%12.2%5.7%7.3%3.2%3.1%2.7%3.2%2.0%2.1%1.9%2.1%1.3%1.4%1.2%1.5%0.9%1.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Value shareVolume share品牌品牌10品牌品牌9品牌品牌8品牌品牌7品牌品牌6品牌品牌5品牌品牌4品牌品牌3品牌品牌2品牌品牌1Shanghai14Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 现代零售渠道占据半数市场份额，同时现代零售渠道占据半数市场份额，同时传统零售渠道在逐渐萎缩传统零售渠

17、道在逐渐萎缩27.9%26.1%12.2%25.1%26.3%18.5%2.2%28.0%23.5%2.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%02 1-603 1-6家庭送奶家庭送奶免免费赠品费赠品杂货店和食品店杂货店和食品店大大卖场卖场超市超市Shanghai15Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 在常温液态奶制品中现代零售渠道占有在常温液态奶制品中现代零售渠道占有78%的市场份额的市场份额31.7%33.5%27.8%44.4%4.6%9.0%5.4%3.8%1.7%3.2%2.1%2.8%1.5%10.1%1.2%2.5%3.8

18、%4.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%02 1-603 1-6送奶入送奶入户户免免费样品费样品礼礼品品工作工作单元单元自由市自由市场和小贩贩卖场和小贩贩卖批批发发杂货店和食品店杂货店和食品店大大卖场卖场超市超市Shanghai16Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 常温产品正在扩大市场份额，其中利乐常温产品正在扩大市场份额，其中利乐枕的增长最为迅猛枕的增长最为迅猛 购买量（包数）购买量（包数）Shanghai按消费者收入分类的按消费者收入分类的包装产品分析包装产品分析- 利乐枕利乐枕18Source: TNS Consumer

19、Panel 2003 收入水平收入水平(人民币人民币/月月/户户)按收入水平分类的利乐枕购买量按收入水平分类的利乐枕购买量000 Liter118819922138248038781102996211097105000100001500020000300002 1-603 1-6+226%+453%+342%利乐枕增长迅猛，特别是在高收入人群利乐枕增长迅猛，特别是在高收入人群中中+350%Shanghai19Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 4.33.8012345678=300002 1-603 1-6Income level

20、(RMB/Month/HH)TFA purchase frequency by income level(Number of Purchasing Time)No. ShanghaiWhite MilkYogurtFlavor Milk 风味奶风味奶21Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 15.0%26.7%8.8%5.2%16.2%8.2%28.8%42.2%13.3%25.2%2.3%4.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%02 1-603 1-6GLASS BOTTLEPLASTIC BOTTLETBAGABLE TOPPLA

21、STIC POUCHTFA屋顶包和玻璃瓶成长迅速，并正在扩大市屋顶包和玻璃瓶成长迅速，并正在扩大市场占有率场占有率173.5430.7101.484.3154.2405.8188.0133.026.466.8489.6465.102004006008001000120014001600180002 1-603 1-61,1591,613+39%Shanghai22Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 Overall Market玻玻璃璃瓶瓶利利乐砖乐砖屋屋顶包顶包塑料袋塑料袋市市场容量场容量02 1-61,159174490154188(千升千升)03 1-61,61

22、3431465406133产品分销产品分销02 1-616.20%0.40%7.40%3.40%3.70%(%)03 1-623.00%1.90%5.80%11.10%3.50%购买频率购买频率02 1-1.81.7(No. of purchase)03 1-1.61.3每次购买量每次购买量02 1-61.381.40.81(升升)03 1-0.71家庭家庭每次购买量每次购买量02 1-62.3(升升)03 1-1.21.2平均价格平均价格02 1-9.14.6(RMB/升

23、升)03 1-8.84风味奶的主要包装形式风味奶的主要包装形式Shanghai23Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 前二位领导品牌的价格高于其它品牌前二位领导品牌的价格高于其它品牌48.9%46.4%24.4%20.7%3.9%3.8%3.8%4.6%3.6%3.6%1.9%2.8%1.9%2.9%1.40%0.78%0.94%1.48%0.93%0.81%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Value shareVolume share品牌品牌10品牌品牌9品牌品牌8品牌品牌7品牌品牌6品牌品牌5品牌品牌4品牌品

24、牌3品牌品牌2品牌品牌1Shanghai24Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 送奶入户渠道迅速增长，并达到送奶入户渠道迅速增长，并达到31%占占有率有率23.1%17.3%30.1%25.9%17.8%5.6%0.0%9.4%1.1%6.1%5.4%8.6%31.0%5.5%3.6%3.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%02 1-603 1-6送奶入送奶入户户免免费赠品费赠品礼礼品品自由市自由市场场批批发发杂货店杂货店大大卖场卖场超市超市Shanghai25Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 批发渠道

25、的出现，并有一定占有率批发渠道的出现，并有一定占有率25.3%21.8%45.5%36.7%4.9%1.7%0.0%3.9%2.9%10.1%6.5%8.4%6.5%11.4%5.5%5.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%02 1-603 1-6送奶入送奶入户户免免费样品费样品礼礼品品工作工作单元单元批批发发杂货店杂货店大大卖场卖场超市超市Shanghai26Source: TNS Consumer Panel 2003 每次购买行为的平均购买量每次购买行为的平均购买量(升升)1.70.711.4024681012玻玻璃璃瓶瓶塑料塑料瓶瓶利利乐砖乐砖屋屋顶包顶包塑料袋塑料袋利利乐枕乐枕02 1-603 1-6Liter消费者购买常温奶的量上升，同时购买消费者购买常温奶的量上升