城市改革的进展和问题

1、第十一讲：城市改革的进展和问题（中国经济专题教学影音资料第13讲上、下）O. Review1. The problems to be solvedA. IncentiveB. CoordinationC. Structure Imbalance2. The approachesA. Before 19781) Structure中央调整农轻重比例2) 协调-改变条、块管理，但一放就活，一活就乱3) 激励：学雷锋，但不能每人都成雷峰B. After 19781） 结构中央调整农轻重比例2） 协调-改变条、块管理，但一放就活，一活就乱3） 激励：强调物质利益3. The enterprise re

2、formApproach:I) Increasing autonomyA.Profit sharing and partial autonomy in production and marketing decision; enterprises were required to meet the quota obligations. (1979)Problem: quota evasion, managerial discretion, declining fiscal revenue.B.Separating Profit and tax. (1983)Problem: hard to de

3、fine costs due to weak auditing.C.Contract (1987)II) Defining property rightsA.Modern corporation system B. Stock-holding (1991)Evaluation:Incentive and efficiency increase but profitability and fiscal revenue decline.4. Resource Allocation System ReformA. Approach: Single Track to dual-track System

4、, to Single market trackEnterprise autonomy and the emergence of market track B. Procedures:Materials:1979-84, allowing outside quota production and marketing1984-, reducing compulsory quotaForeign exchange management: Expand regional autonomyReduce compulsory plan and replace it with indicative pla

5、nChange single-item trading company to multiple-item trading company Foreign exchange retentionForeign Exchange Swap Financial systema) 建立银行体系*Peoples bank was the sole bank before 1979*Agriculture Bank of China, 1979*Setting Bank of China branches, 1979*Bank of Industry and Commerce and Peoples ins

6、urance company, 1984 *Peoples Bank of Construction, 1985b) 存贷挂钩，c) 发展非银行金融机构d) 建立资本市场: Shanghai and ShenzhenShanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange, 1990 The financial system is still in the dual-track stage and until under the states firm control. 评估: 非国有部门的发展和产业结构的调整.5.Macro policy reformForm Dual tr

7、ack to market trackMaterial price: plan price, barter, dual price, market priceExchange rate: official rate, swap market rateInterest rate: Adjustment6. The logic of crossing the river by groping the stone.7. The achievements:i) Incentive and productivity1980-88State sectorOutput 8.5 TFP 2.4Non-stat

8、e sectorOutput 16.9TFP4.61953-78Output10.1TFP0.53 (-1.0)ii) InvestmentTable 6.6, page 188Within Budget's share, 1981-28.1%, 1994-3.2%.ii) Production and output structureTable 6.3, page 176.SOEs' share 1978-77.6%, 1994-34.1%, comparative advantageTVE: employment-94-120.2 million (state-112.1

9、m) per capita capital-1/4. Industrial output-78, 9.3; 94-42% export-87, 11%, 93-35% iii) Outward-trade dependent ratioTable 6.5, p. 1871978199419972001Export4.723.220.323Dependent9.945.436.121iv) Growth rate:GDP growth rate 1952-1977, 5.7% per annual.Page 4, table 1.1Rapid Economic Growth1980-90.1 1

10、990-99China10.210.7Low Income4.32.4Middle Income2.83.5High Income3.22.4World3.12.5Source: World Development Report2000/1, pp. 294-5v) Income growth Rural population: 1978-2001, 7.3%;52-78, 2.38%. Urban population: 1978-2001, 6.4%; 52-78, ConsumptionRural: 1978-99, 6.7%;52-77-1.8%.Urban: 1978-99 6.4%;52-77-3.4%全国：782001，7.11. The problems:i. 1997年以前,"vigor/sterility" cycle and recent deflationLiberalization leads to vigorInvestment rush and economic boomVigor leads to chaos, overheating, inflationCredit expansion, inflationChaos leads